Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[ers-wxman1]

00z Euro is OTS well south and east. Similar 500 pattern until hr 96. Less amp to the trough and late phase. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

What a shift in long range models to cold. Maybe the SOI negative can do this? 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

GFS keeps showing a potential storm on the 9th. Wayyyyyyy far out there, but the GEFS looks like it shows colder air infiltrating during that time, so maybe that rings in the potential for a cold pattern that also has more precip chances

Tread lightly....

[Jebman]

Ah, the 29th! This was to have been The Day, the day of the glamorous 66 hour snow. Sometimes, I let myself imagine as I go outside and take a deep luxurious breath of fresh cold Arctic air, straight from Siberia, just for a moment, thinking of the glories of a once in a million lifetimes 66 hour marathon snow, of splendid dendrites falling from a cloud laden sky and piling up on a rock hard frigid ground, not a single flake wasted because of boundary layer issues. Of hour after hour of snow, of deepening snowpack, of amazing exhilarating jebwalks, of middle of the night wallowing in the deepening snows, of perhaps sneaking in and walking on someone else's drift, just for old time's sake back in the late 1980s when I was still young and could run for miles in the snows! Of thrilling to DAYS of snowfall and digging myself literally to death shoveling ALL OF THE SNOW IN DALE CITY ALL BY MYSELF, putting all the snowplows completely out of work! Of piling snowbanks so high that the news services would arrive to snap pics of the crazy guy piling snow so damn high that people were actually crying with embarrassment.

I can dream............

We ARE going to get our snow this winter, of that I am absolutely certain, 150 percent certain.

[showmethesnow]

Though the day 6/7 Hail Mary storm is not dead it is on Life Support at this point just waiting to flat line. The convoluted setup up shown involves too many moving parts and timing issues to really be considered a serious threat for our region. That said I think the models are already moving on to their next tease for us. In the next day or two I would not be surprised if we see the models start keying on a followup coastal to this storm (Roughly Day 8/9). Though the setup at this time is not what I would call a great one it would still afford us better odds of succeeding then the one we are currently following. Still there is 6/7 days for the first storm and 8/9 for the potential followup so let's see where the somewhat erratic models take us before we get worked up one way or the other.

Day 10+ through the extended is somewhat intriguing as the cold relaxes and we see the southern jet park up the east coast bringing warmer temps and moisture with it. If correct it would set us up for possibly over running events, Miller A's, even a phased system as NS energy dives south into the southern jet. The one thing with this setup though is that with any organized/stronger system we will run the risk of it running through our region or even to the west as the boundary would be close to our region. But at this point I am not sure I buy the relaxing that the models are showing. Thought for quite awhile now that the pattern we were moving into would have longevity and any relax would be brief at best. And the models have been showing this. They keep throwing out break downs of the pattern in the long range only to transition them to relaxes and eventually lose them altogether as we move forward in time. One other thing that makes me question the long range is how they breakdown/relax the pattern. We have seen this time and again where they want establish troughing into the southwest and yet each time we see this disappear as the models move forward in time. But who knows, this time may be legit. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I say big storm, let's review the normal check-list: 1. GFS shows it, then abandons it until T-60h

2. GGEM has it, loses it, finds it, loses it.

3. EURO has no clue about it then finds it and drags it into your kitchen.

4. Moon says storm. 

Betcha the Euro comes back with a slight out to sea shift, I'm counting on it as a necessary lead in to the northwest trend, we don't want that 950 mb low coming inland anywhere but maybe Hyannisport. 

 

 

If by slightly OTS you meant over Bermuda then you just hit a home run. This is another low and outside breaking ball storm with a swing and a miss.....no moonshots with this one. 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Cobalt, the moon theory is part of a larger research paradigm that I have developed over many years, in an effort to explain why there is atmospheric variation (not climate as we can perhaps more easily understand, or even the variations within climate, but why is there a low or a high in a certain place today and not some other day).
So the way too short summary is that one possible source of modulation is external. This is partly accepted theory nowadays, that the solar system magnetic field may contain unequal sectors and earth's passage through them might affect the weather because of electromagnetic impulses that pass between the upper atmosphere and the solar system magnetic field. This assumes the usual meteorological principles of how surface weather responds to upper atmospheric patterns, so while the impression may be that I am trying to predict surface weather events from external clues, really I am trying to predict upper atmosphere variations. 
If the earth had no moon, but still rotated on an axis (which it would not, very quickly anyway) this part of my theory would still explain two-thirds to three-quarters of these variables.
Where the moon comes into the framework is that I see evidence for it modulating interference patterns in the above connections, further explaining why active frontal systems might be timed at certain defined intervals and places. The interference pattern involves timing lines, which gets us past the objection sometimes made by people who don't get this concept, why isn't the moon creating the same impacts everywhere, thus all cancelling each other out? (the no atmospheric shoreline as reason for no atmospheric tidal ranges of greater consequence). The timing lines define where the effects should be noted at defined times. And since these can move around somewhat, a study of recent timed events helps to predict where the timing lines might be situated. One such timing line often runs through the east-central U.S. from the Midwest (not a north-south feature, more NW-SE). I have this timing line placed a bit east of its equilibrium point but slowly backing west at this point in time.
So finally, if the upper atmosphere is shaped appropriately and the timing lines are in conducive locations, storms should peak in intensity at some predictable point that is a blend of timing line focus, event timing, and standard meteorological principles such as thermal gradient. In this particular case, I have been saying that a storm should form near or east of Hatteras around the full moon which occurs Jan 2nd (at 02 z). 
However, it's a theory under development and I make no claims of 100% accuracy with it, statistical studies of large amounts of data support it but this is rather like a sports form chart, as in the Patriots should beat the Bucs (but they didn't) yet that would be the trend over a large sample of similar cases. 
One other point is that the full moon in late December or early January is closely timed with the moon's northern declination maximum which is an independent energy peak that operates in the system all year. By February that has moved 4-5 days ahead and by June it is overlapping the new moon. The northern max is actually a stronger energy peak than full moon in the data sets by a factor of about 3:2. 
This is a very condensed version of an answer to your question. If you wanted to read more, there is a longer and very detailed discussion available on-line, google my name, Net-weather, and theory of astro-climatology, you might find it there (mostly posted in 2012-13), or go to Net-weather and look in their archives under scientific theories and the weather. Of course it's not an accepted theory (yet) in part because I have not condensed it to an acceptable scientific paper format. Frankly I am not trying very hard to do so because I hope to make more progress before going that route, I don't claim the work is finished or perhaps even half finished. 
The idea of big east coast storms at full moon or both full and new moon is by no means uniquely mine either, I know of at least ten other people who have made such assertions and offered evidence (all of whom have reached about the same end result as myself in terms of acceptance). 

I've caught bigger fish around the new moon so there's that. Probably more to do with lower light at night time, but the rockfish never seem to disappoint. You might be on to something Roger. Over.

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though the day 6/7 Hail Mary storm is not dead it is on Life Support at this point just waiting to flat line. The convoluted setup up shown involves too many moving parts and timing issues to really be considered a serious threat for our region. That said I think the models are already moving on to their next tease for us. In the next day or two I would not be surprised if we see the models start keying on a followup coastal to this storm (Roughly Day 8/9). Though the setup at this time is not what I would call a great one it would still afford us better odds of succeeding then the one we are currently following. Still there is 6/7 days for the first storm and 8/9 for the potential followup so let's see where the somewhat erratic models take us before we get worked up one way or the other.

Day 10+ through the extended is somewhat intriguing as the cold relaxes and we see the southern jet park up the east coast bringing warmer temps and moisture with it. If correct it would set us up for possibly over running events, Miller A's, even a phased system as NS energy dives south into the southern jet. The one thing with this setup though is that with any organized/stronger system we will run the risk of it running through our region or even to the west as the boundary would be close to our region. But at this point I am not sure I buy the relaxing that the models are showing. Thought for quite awhile now that the pattern we were moving into would have longevity and any relax would be brief at best. And the models have been showing this. They keep throwing out break downs of the pattern in the long range only to transition them to relaxes and eventually lose them altogether as we move forward in time. One other thing that makes me question the long range is how they breakdown/relax the pattern. We have seen this time and again where they want establish troughing into the southwest and yet each time we see this disappear as the models move forward in time. But who knows, this time may be legit. 

The models cant seem to lose the -EPO, and as long as I see that tendency, I am not going to be too concerned about the "warmer" look depicted in the smoothed ens means for the EC down the road. The pattern at 15 days wrt the major indices doesn't change much- still looks like the AO/NAO are positive to neutral at best while EPO remains in our favor, and it is the feature most responsible for delivering the cold now.

[BristowWx]

It is what it is but still somewhat surprised with this cold pattern we cant get a moderate event.  Its not historic cold but the longevity of it makes it somewhat special.  How often do we go multiple days below freezing and it will be that way for a good stretch.  h5 is just so stable over the CONUS its crazy. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

The models cant seem to lose the -EPO, and as long as I see that tendency, I am not going to be too concerned about the "warmer" look depicted in the smoothed ens means for the EC down the road. The pattern at 15 days wrt the major indices doesn't change much- still looks like the AO/NAO are positive to neutral at best while EPO remains in our favor, and it is the feature most responsible for delivering the cold now.

Epo is great for getting the cold air into the lower 48 but is indirectly to blame for the cold, dry, suppressed stj pattern. Not sure if other big epo ridge winters had the same theme (not at my PC to research) but i am inclined to believe the years that featured a persistent epo ridge and had snowier results also had Atl ridging working in tandem or at least transient blocking. With the epo flexing and no Atl help Im not sure a home run is in the cards any time soon. Im sure we've scored with transient epo ridges popping in the past but with a sustained look and no Atl help Im unsure of our odds.