Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Bob Chill]

Ukie isn't going to do it either but a heck of a lot closer than the gfs/ggem. 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

North America/Europe model war

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie isn't going to do it either but a heck of a lot closer than the gfs/ggem. 

North America/Europe model war

IMO I wanna go all or nothing. Have a 950 low tucked in and give us 6"+ of snow, or have it OTS. Have NYC getting a HECS while we get partly cloudy skies is not on my bucket list, that's for sure. 

[mitchnick]

264hrs on the Gfs is a familiar look at 10 days+ this year with no results

[Bob Chill]

I think the Kelvin Cells and Hadley Waves are all torqued out 

[Grothar of Herndon]

5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Big west coast ridge by Jan 5 on gfs. I think this will jump to Greenland for big -NAO by Jan 10. 

Are you the AI version of the Eastern Weather Machine account?

[Cobalt]

GFS keeps showing a potential storm on the 9th. Wayyyyyyy far out there, but the GEFS looks like it shows colder air infiltrating during that time, so maybe that rings in the potential for a cold pattern that also has more precip chances

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the Kelvin Cells and Hadley Waves are all torqued out 

You oughta be on Twitter. 

[Bob Chill]

I think the only smart thing to do right now is start a thread for the d11 gfs threat. Looks legit 

[mitchnick]

Here it comes. The gratuitous end-of-run bomb on the Gfs.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Here it comes. The gratuitous end-of-run bomb on the Gfs.

Ughh, it even stopped doing that.  Fooled me going ots with it. Lol

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ughh, it even stopped doing that.  Fooled me going ots with it. Lol

Someone needs to make a thread for that event near the end of the GFS run. Good idea I think

[ATreglown]

I am never hopeful for snow in this very cold and dry air mass upon us. Not sure of the year,but a clipper came through and placed a nice thin blanket on the ground. But within a few hours later it was all but gone. Very cold, so no melting. It literally evaporated, just poof and no more snow. Was unlike anything I have ever seen!

[Jebman]

Just now, ATreglown said:

I am never hopeful for snow in this very cold and dry air mass upon us. not sure of the year,but a clipper came through and placed had a nice thin blanket on the ground. But within a few hours later it was all but gone. Very cold, so no melting. It literally evaporated, just poof and no more snow.

Thats why its always a good idea to pile up the snow once you get it, It will last longer.

[Cobalt]

GEFS is certainly drier for next week's event too. Not completely dry, but it's drier. If we want a NW trend, we have at least 48 hours before it will become much harder to trend far enough NW

[Roger Smith]

I say big storm, let's review the normal check-list:

1. GFS shows it, then abandons it until T-60h

2. GGEM has it, loses it, finds it, loses it.

3. EURO has no clue about it then finds it and drags it into your kitchen.

4. Moon says storm. 

Betcha the Euro comes back with a slight out to sea shift, I'm counting on it as a necessary lead in to the northwest trend, we don't want that 950 mb low coming inland anywhere but maybe Hyannisport. 

 

[ATreglown]

Can't wait to see what I wake up to in the morning far as the over night die hard weather weenies play by play. Here's to hoping a good 00z EURO run!! Come on guys, you can do it!!! And if not; .... Well, you know the answer.... Give it time, be patient, wait for relaxing and reload, gotta score something while cold is here, ....  

Night to all!!

[ATreglown]

12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Thats why its always a good idea to pile up the snow once you get it, It will last longer.

Does not work if you only have enough to fit in a bucket! hehe!

[Amped]

16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GEFS is certainly drier for next week's event too. Not completely dry, but it's drier. If we want a NW trend, we have at least 48 hours before it will become much harder to trend far enough NW

You know the routine, it will die for the next 72hrs, before it comes back to life as a car topper with it's own 20 page thread.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

You know the routine, it will die for the next 72hrs, before it comes back to life as a car topper with it's own 20 page thread.

Only issue is, if we get a car topper, Philly probably gets 8-12 and NYC gets 18"+. Only way for car topper to work out for us in this situation methinks. 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Only issue is, if we get a car topper, Philly probably gets 8-12 and NYC gets 18"+. Only way for car topper to work out for us in this situation methinks. 

Not if it's just a clipper and the main low is 500 miles ots

[Cobalt]

22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I say big storm, let's review the normal check-list:

1. GFS shows it, then abandons it until T-60h

2. GGEM has it, loses it, finds it, loses it.

3. EURO has no clue about it then finds it and drags it into your kitchen.

4. Moon says storm. 

Betcha the Euro comes back with a slight out to sea shift, I'm counting on it as a necessary lead in to the northwest trend, we don't want that 950 mb low coming inland anywhere but maybe Hyannisport. 

 

You are really persistent, and I like it. I'm unaware/out of the loop, but could you explain the whole moon thing? You explained it briefly a few days ago, but that's pages away

[Roger Smith]

Cobalt, the moon theory is part of a larger research paradigm that I have developed over many years, in an effort to explain why there is atmospheric variation (not climate as we can perhaps more easily understand, or even the variations within climate, but why is there a low or a high in a certain place today and not some other day).

So the way too short summary is that one possible source of modulation is external. This is partly accepted theory nowadays, that the solar system magnetic field may contain unequal sectors and earth's passage through them might affect the weather because of electromagnetic impulses that pass between the upper atmosphere and the solar system magnetic field. This assumes the usual meteorological principles of how surface weather responds to upper atmospheric patterns, so while the impression may be that I am trying to predict surface weather events from external clues, really I am trying to predict upper atmosphere variations. 

If the earth had no moon, but still rotated on an axis (which it would not, very quickly anyway) this part of my theory would still explain two-thirds to three-quarters of these variables.

Where the moon comes into the framework is that I see evidence for it modulating interference patterns in the above connections, further explaining why active frontal systems might be timed at certain defined intervals and places. The interference pattern involves timing lines, which gets us past the objection sometimes made by people who don't get this concept, why isn't the moon creating the same impacts everywhere, thus all cancelling each other out? (the no atmospheric shoreline as reason for no atmospheric tidal ranges of greater consequence). The timing lines define where the effects should be noted at defined times. And since these can move around somewhat, a study of recent timed events helps to predict where the timing lines might be situated. One such timing line often runs through the east-central U.S. from the Midwest (not a north-south feature, more NW-SE). I have this timing line placed a bit east of its equilibrium point but slowly backing west at this point in time.

So finally, if the upper atmosphere is shaped appropriately and the timing lines are in conducive locations, storms should peak in intensity at some predictable point that is a blend of timing line focus, event timing, and standard meteorological principles such as thermal gradient. In this particular case, I have been saying that a storm should form near or east of Hatteras around the full moon which occurs Jan 2nd (at 02 z). 

However, it's a theory under development and I make no claims of 100% accuracy with it, statistical studies of large amounts of data support it but this is rather like a sports form chart, as in the Patriots should beat the Bucs (but they didn't) yet that would be the trend over a large sample of similar cases. 

One other point is that the full moon in late December or early January is closely timed with the moon's northern declination maximum which is an independent energy peak that operates in the system all year. By February that has moved 4-5 days ahead and by June it is overlapping the new moon. The northern max is actually a stronger energy peak than full moon in the data sets by a factor of about 3:2. 

This is a very condensed version of an answer to your question. If you wanted to read more, there is a longer and very detailed discussion available on-line, google my name, Net-weather, and theory of astro-climatology, you might find it there (mostly posted in 2012-13), or go to Net-weather and look in their archives under scientific theories and the weather. Of course it's not an accepted theory (yet) in part because I have not condensed it to an acceptable scientific paper format. Frankly I am not trying very hard to do so because I hope to make more progress before going that route, I don't claim the work is finished or perhaps even half finished. 

The idea of big east coast storms at full moon or both full and new moon is by no means uniquely mine either, I know of at least ten other people who have made such assertions and offered evidence (all of whom have reached about the same end result as myself in terms of acceptance). 

[evaporativecooler]

10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Cobalt, the moon theory is part of a larger research paradigm that I have developed over many years, in an effort to explain why there is atmospheric variation (not climate as we can perhaps more easily understand, or even the variations within climate, but why is there a low or a high in a certain place today and not some other day).

So the way too short summary is that one possible source of modulation is external. This is partly accepted theory nowadays, that the solar system magnetic field may contain unequal sectors and earth's passage through them might affect the weather because of electromagnetic impulses that pass between the upper atmosphere and the solar system magnetic field. This assumes the usual meteorological principles of how surface weather responds to upper atmospheric patterns, so while the impression may be that I am trying to predict surface weather events from external clues, really I am trying to predict upper atmosphere variations. 

If the earth had no moon, but still rotated on an axis (which it would not, very quickly anyway) this part of my theory would still explain two-thirds to three-quarters of these variables.

Where the moon comes into the framework is that I see evidence for it modulating interference patterns in the above connections, further explaining why active frontal systems might be timed at certain defined intervals and places. The interference pattern involves timing lines, which gets us past the objection sometimes made by people who don't get this concept, why isn't the moon creating the same impacts everywhere, thus all cancelling each other out? (the no atmospheric shoreline as reason for no atmospheric tidal ranges of greater consequence). The timing lines define where the effects should be noted at defined times. And since these can move around somewhat, a study of recent timed events helps to predict where the timing lines might be situated. One such timing line often runs through the east-central U.S. from the Midwest (not a north-south feature, more NW-SE). I have this timing line placed a bit east of its equilibrium point but slowly backing west at this point in time.

So finally, if the upper atmosphere is shaped appropriately and the timing lines are in conducive locations, storms should peak in intensity at some predictable point that is a blend of timing line focus, event timing, and standard meteorological principles such as thermal gradient. In this particular case, I have been saying that a storm should form near or east of Hatteras around the full moon which occurs Jan 2nd (at 02 z). 

However, it's a theory under development and I make no claims of 100% accuracy with it, statistical studies of large amounts of data support it but this is rather like a sports form chart, as in the Patriots should beat the Bucs (but they didn't) yet that would be the trend over a large sample of similar cases. 

One other point is that the full moon in late December or early January is closely timed with the moon's northern declination maximum which is an independent energy peak that operates in the system all year. By February that has moved 4-5 days ahead and by June it is overlapping the new moon. The northern max is actually a stronger energy peak than full moon in the data sets by a factor of about 3:2. 

This is a very condensed version of an answer to your question. If you wanted to read more, there is a longer and very detailed discussion available on-line, google my name, Net-weather, and theory of astro-climatology, you might find it there (mostly posted in 2012-13), or go to Net-weather and look in their archives under scientific theories and the weather. Of course it's not an accepted theory (yet) in part because I have not condensed it to an acceptable scientific paper format. Frankly I am not trying very hard to do so because I hope to make more progress before going that route, I don't claim the work is finished or perhaps even half finished. 

The idea of big east coast storms at full moon or both full and new moon is by no means uniquely mine either, I know of at least ten other people who have made such assertions and offered evidence (all of whom have reached about the same end result as myself in terms of acceptance). 

Very interesting. What's the physical mechanism behind the effects of EM? I've read papers about it affecting bulk condensation nuclei activity but I have no idea what it would do regarding synoptic or mesoscale stuff. 

[Cobalt]

I have no expectations for the Euro. It'll probably be OTS, but that's just a guess. DT's video was very informative, saying that the potential is a long shot, especially when taking into account the pattern. Great video by the way. It's a good watch

 

[Roger Smith]

I think the process must be some sort of continuum between the external sectors and atmospheric sectors that we know as ridges troughs and other features, but the part of the theory that needs more cause and effect work is why apparently the reflections are timed to focus over eastern North America when earth is in a sector, and why other features represent sectors that are ahead of us in space (west) or behind us (east). For that, I imagine that explanations are similar to why a TV signal appears on your screen and not halfway off the screen (as it sometimes used to do when we picked up TV signals manually from an antenna and not digitally from cable or the internet, satellite reception may be an intermediate case (not as subject to off-screen drift as the old system used to be, anyone under 50 won't get what I'm saying here, trust me, TV was a lot less reliable before cable). So the short answer is, we get the reinforcing shot of energy disproportionately over North America, one way that shows up is by our sharper and more charged frontal systems compared to Europe or even eastern Asia. Since the system is aligned to magnetic poles, Australia is the southern hemisphere equivalent, not South America. 

[Cobalt]

Looks like Euro is farther East, unsurprisingly 

[psuhoffman]

Gefs really likes day 10-15.  Tease 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Looks like Euro is farther East, unsurprisingly 

Yeah more amped than the GFS, but it didn't dig nearly as far west as the good runs.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Amped said:

Yeah more amped than the GFS, but it didn't dig nearly as far west as the good runs.

Yeah, I thought our luck would run out with good runs. Seems like the both the Euro and Canadian had 2 good runs and then stopped advertising them. Threat is still viable, especially for SE areas. Ensembles will probably follow, but I expect a fluke run or 2 in the next 24 hours. It's just if the ensembles follow those "fluke runs"

[Cobalt]

Roger seems to have been right. Euro wasn't out to lunch in the middle of the Atlantic ocean like the GFS and Canadian (somewhat) were. Still has precip in far SE New England/Eastern Long Island.