mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Gfs looks identical to Canadian at 138 surface-wise, sooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, poolz1 said: NS energy diving a bit further west....not sure if it'll make a difference tho. Changes are subtle..we need big changes. We have like 5-6 days left for the models to change for the better or for the worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 GFS might go east of Bermuda lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 worst run of 2017 so far. maybe its the one behind Jan 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: and we all know the euro is bunk...will probably be bermuda next run King my arse....but, you never know. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The surface low is passing south east of Bermuda this run. A bit of shank there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: King my arse....but, you never know. Lol usually when the euro is the the only model giving us snow...its time to look ahead. I mean GFS isnt even close and the Canadien went the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Crankyweatherguy has a pretty good article on the potential storm. Scroll nearly 3/4 of the way down to find the part about the event, since most of it is about cold and snow this weekend http://www.stormhamster.com/e122817.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: King my arse....but, you never know. Lol No op scores well beyond 96-120 hours. We're still at a range where ops can find and lose a storm every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 He'll be eating his words if the Euro comes in East too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: and we all know the euro is bunk...will probably be bermuda next run When Euro is alone it never brings it home for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: No op scores well beyond 96-120 hours. We're still at a range where ops can find and lose a storm every run. Very true. We're at the point where it's like kicking a 70 yard field goal with wind that gusting to the right. Could be well OTS, but we won't know with certainty. We need to get to the point where it's more of a chip shot (I know bad analogy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Ji said: usually when the euro is the the only model giving us snow...its time to look ahead. I mean GFS isnt even close and the Canadien went the wrong way. Imho, outside of the 4/5 day period, Euro can be just as bad as any other model. Reputations are hard to shake, good and bad. The other models have made decent improvements over the years and are neck and neck with the Euro. But the Euro's reputation holds on so everyone remembers Sandy but generally forgets the failures. I'm not suggesting it's a bad model, just not as superior as it used to be when compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: When Euro is alone it never brings it home for us to add insult to injury...our CMC took away saturdays snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No op scores well beyond 96-120 hours. We're still at a range where ops can find and lose a storm every run. Agree. See post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: He'll be eating his words if the Euro comes in East too He has absolutely no credibility left so what does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 at this point, we just need a storm...even if its 2 inches, that turns to sleet and to rain. We cant even get a rain event herer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: at this point, we just need a storm...even if its 2 inches, that turns to sleet and to rain. We cant even get a rain event herer Does the Gfs and Canadian pi$$ing in our Cherios count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Agree. See post above. I don't think many people think the euro is great beyond 4-5 days. Ops are a long ways from good accuracy that far out in time. Inside of 72 hours I weight the euro highest by a good margin though. Rightfully so because it's the best op out there and does a really good job with qpf. Sure, it blows those sometimes and the gfs or whatever does better but if I had to pick one op and ditch the rest I would keep the euro by a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 King my arse....but, you never know. LolNobody ever said the euro was the king of handling a progressive ns pattern......that is generally the gfs' specialty. Take the model biases, prog clues, and early seasonal patterns into account and a general feel can be made with some semblance of accuracy this season. There are going to be plenty of big dog progs.....it is utilizing this date to figure out which one might be the real deal. We need a pattern relax.....right now clippers are our best bet. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 congrats to us. Our patience will pay off by the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 they really should of made this country wider on the right side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 I imagine if we never saw those Canadian or Euro solutions we wouldn't even be talking about this window for snow. Maybe. Signal would still be there, but we'd have no expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Only 9 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Big west coast ridge by Jan 5 on gfs. I think this will jump to Greenland for big -NAO by Jan 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: they really should of made this country wider on the right side.... Take away fake effect and you could take all the precip that falls in the eastern half of the country and it would fit in the tidal basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 i wonder who gives us more snow a winter......the GGEM or Roger Smith...or are they the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ji said: they really should of made this country wider on the right side.... By the looks of those colors in the Atlantic Ocean off Florida, it looks like this hobby has finally sucked the blood out of all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Just now, Ji said: i wonder who gives us more snow a winter......the GGEM or Roger Smith...or are they the same thing? He's a real gem, sooo....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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