WhiteoutMD Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We usually do pretty well in storms when SW VA gets no liquid. that's funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: IF this run verified verbatim, it would elbow itself high up the NESIS list. Absolute blizzard for NYC. As for our area, absolutely. We wouldn’t have as much precip, but we’d get great ratios and banding. Damn there I go getting excited about this fantasy. Probably better off to root for this thing becoming a healthy clipper. GEFS says about a 25% chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: that's funny But so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Surprising run of the Euro. Looked farther East, but I guess it makes up for it. I beg all of you to tread lightly though. I made the mistake of not treading lightly last week for this Friday's event. We're still at the point where models are gonna bounce around a ton. With that said, it's good the Euro is being bullish for once. It seems to have taken place for the Canadian at this given moment. Hopefully the East bias for models play out and we get a healthy snowstorm. My optimistic expectation is 3-6" from the edge of the storm with high ratios. Basically, I'm saying don't get your hopes up too much. On to the EPS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 P008 please! Just one time! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Surprising run of the Euro. Looked farther East, but I guess it makes up for it. I bet all of you to tread lightly though. I made the mistake of not treading lightly last week for this Friday's event. We're still at the point where models are gonna bounce around a ton. With that said, it's good the Euro is being bullish for once. It seems to have taken place for the Canadian at this given moment. Hopefully the East bias for models play out and we get a healthy snowstorm. My optimistic expectation is 3-6" from the edge of the storm with high ratios. Basically, I'm saying don't get your hopes up too much. On to the EPS . Thank you Cobalt, hopes are now in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, relax looks imminent....lol Yea I am more confident that were not flipping warm as fast as many thought. And a slightly warmer pattern could work out better. But the sad thing is sooner or later it will get warm, at some point in January. We aren't going to run wall to wall arctic cold from Xmas to February. And even if its just some 4 day transient ridge Jan 16-20th some will still say, "see told you it was gonna warm up". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Surprising run of the Euro. Looked farther East, but I guess it makes up for it. I bet all of you to tread lightly though. I made the mistake of not treading lightly last week for this Friday's event. We're still at the point where models are gonna bounce around a ton. With that said, it's good the Euro is being bullish for once. It seems to have taken place for the Canadian at this given moment. Hopefully the East bias for models play out and we get a healthy snowstorm. My optimistic expectation is 3-6" from the edge of the storm with high ratios. Basically, I'm saying don't get your hopes up too much. On to the EPS . 3-6" with high ratios is waaaay too high an expectation for someone who is trying to tread lightly. Always expect nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, frd said: If that snowfall happened as portrayed with a powerful storm like that, the funnel of arctic cold would drop temps to below zero well South of our area - record breaking . Call it the Day After Tomorrow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3-6" with high ratios is waaaay too high an expectation for someone who is trying to tread lightly. Always expect nothing. I said optimistic expectation, as in at the very most I hope for that. Sorry, it wasn't worded the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Highly doubt that look holds but if it does score some points for the GGEM in seeing that kind of evolution first. I thought I saw this type of scenario further out in the Atlantic a couple of days ago on the GFS but I might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 If that front running piece of energy in the stj runs out ahead creating a weakness in the flow without the other vorts being able to phase with it before zipping off too late then this heads farther East. This scenario is one of our more likely fail possibilities with these potential triple phasers in my experiences watching these progs. Have seen a couple huge dogs fail like this before and I will avoid mentioning those dates. It is just ironic to see this possibility modeled so clearly on the farther East solutions. Sorry to play the devil's advocate but some of ya's are setting yourselves up for heartbreak. Potential? Yes.....huge. Potential for letdown at 6 days lead? Even huger ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 If the Euro showed a total bust I would temper my expectations. Until the king jumps off board I'm assuming 20 inches minimum. Powder bomb...weenie hat on until it gets knocked off again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I thought I saw this type of scenario further out in the Atlantic a couple of days ago on the GFS but I might be wrong. I’d also say score for the EPS. Saw the Miller A signal a few days ago for Jan 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Surprising run of the Euro. Looked farther East, but I guess it makes up for it. I beg all of you to tread lightly though. I made the mistake of not treading lightly last week for this Friday's event. We're still at the point where models are gonna bounce around a ton. With that said, it's good the Euro is being bullish for once. It seems to have taken place for the Canadian at this given moment. Hopefully the East bias for models play out and we get a healthy snowstorm. My optimistic expectation is 3-6" from the edge of the storm with high ratios. Basically, I'm saying don't get your hopes up too much. On to the EPS . Kid, for someone who typed the sentence earlier today “I was not alive in 1996” you sure do dish out advice to those of us who were around then... trust me, no one on here is getting giddy for this area off of that run. Just raising eyebrows at how unique the solution is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We usually do pretty well in storms when SW VA gets no liquid. Take it easy with those fighting words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Kid, for someone who typed the sentence earlier today “I was not alive in 1996” you sure do dish out advice to those of us who were around then... trust me, no one on here is getting giddy for this area off of that run. Just raising eyebrows at how unique the solution is. I wish I could like this more than once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It's pretty obvious this is mostly an all or none deal. Yea, we could get scraped and score an inch or two but the 2 most likely outcomes by a huge margin are zero and a moderate or large event. It's nothing like other more typical storms where we have a fairly wide range of outcomes that all include accumulating snow. Thinking that 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever is a fair compromise won't work here. Be prepared for partly cloudy skies or a pretty hard hitting storm with the former being the heavy favorite for the next 3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Anybody have the Control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Last set of EPS ensemble members were pretty much like you'd expect for a scenario like this. 12-15 were good, the rest were zilch. Will be interested to see if any more hop on board or if the proportion stays the same. We're not quite in the Euro's wheelhouse here -- need it to be T+120 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 OMG CONTROL W Precip doesn't extend out very far west but its nice to see the tucked low close to the coast. 6" or so as Cobalt said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Anybody have the Control run?Out to day 7. 6" for DC without ratios, still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Out to day 7. 6" for DC with 10:1 ratios, still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's pretty obvious this is mostly an all or none deal. Yea, we could get scraped and score an inch or two but the 2 most likely outcomes by a huge margin are zero and a moderate or large event. It's nothing like other more typical storms where we have a fairly wide range of outcomes that all include accumulating snow. Thinking that 1-3 or 2-4 or whatever is a fair compromise won't work here. Be prepared for partly cloudy skies or a pretty hard hitting storm with the former being the heavy favorite for the next 3 days or so. yea, if the storm fails to bomb out we get nothing, and even if the storm does bomb out we still get nothing if it does so too far northeast. And there is usually a very very sharp cutoff on the back edge. Ratios are super high there and its possible to get 10" from only .5 qpf but at some point that means where the back edge sets up you go from 10" to nothing in only 20 miles. Think Dec 2000, Feb 78 kind of cutoff. These don't work out 90% of the time here. What would make me feel we have a better chance, as I said before I know....is if we can get the whole thing to trend west earlier on so that we aren't needing some perfect phase/bomb job to pull the system in from our southeast. I do think this has the chance to be a bombed system so I can live with havin to get it to come due north from our south, that isnt easy but its more realistic then a full capture and tug in from our east. That almost never works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody have the Control run? The control run is a coastal blizzard (950s low) and a more moderate event inland. Develops and captures much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: OMG CONTROL Good GOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 still learning here....what is the control Run exactly??? how does that differ from the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: The control run is a coastal blizzard (950s low) and a more moderate event inland. Develops and captures much earlier. I had a feeling it would be nice. It's almost always a bigger deal than the Operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Good GOD! Precip axis doesn't extend very far west but its a nice hit either way. Good to see a tucked low close to the coast. Only 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I had a feeling it would be nice. It's almost always a bigger deal than the Operational. Mitch or @Bob Chill at that point on the control is it still backing in or is it departing? I am just curious, because with that look you would think a storm of that size would be throwing tons of moisture southwestward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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