SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The west dual low is tucked in pretty close at 168, I imagine precip went pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Seeing a lot of double barrel lows on various model runs for this storm. Is that a function of the GL low jumping over to merge with the forming coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: The 0.5" contour is about IAD-FDK....the evolution is scary... we're tough cookies, soooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Still not a bad look on the Euro from 144-168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: mighta spoke too soon lol It's a great run but really unusual. The separation between the streams allows everything to back in and start going nuts right overhead basically. I'll gladly take the run if it's right...which is doubtful...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Really close to something enormous with that odd secondary low popping near the coast - I presume a transfer from the GLL. If we can get the main low to do that reverse transfer earlier - i.e. if the GLL comes south - or if for some other reason it tracks nearer the coast (trough goes more negative) - we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's a great run but really unusual. The separation between the streams allows everything to back in and start going nuts right overhead basically. I'll gladly take the run if it's right...which is doubtful...lol Amen brother, Amen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Lord I miss wx graphics already. From what I can tell, the lead (miller a) shortwave looks weaker and farther east, but the trailing northern stream vorts are in a better position for us. Based on the 168hr map, it looks like we *should*be getting CCBed well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: The 0.5" contour is about IAD-FDK....the evolution is scary... Very scary. Very rare to score this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 It's better than 0Z, and I never thought that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ok, I'm in....lock this one up for 6 days please. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Lord I miss wx graphics already. From what I can tell, the lead (miller a) shortwave looks weaker and farther east, but the trailing northern stream vorts are in a better position for us. Based on the 168hr map, it looks like we *should*be getting CCBed well. huh? http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ok, I'm in....lock this one up for 6 days please. LOL more to come after that.....a decent amount more too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lord I miss wx graphics already. From what I can tell, the lead (miller a) shortwave looks weaker and farther east, but the trailing northern stream vorts are in a better position for us. Based on the 168hr map, it looks like we *should*be getting CCBed well. We were hoping for that . Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ok, I'm in....lock this one up for 6 days please. LOL Is this the paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I think there is still potential with this storm. Quite a bit of energy pulling into that trough. H850 winds on the euro from NJ to MA progged over hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: huh? http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php File not found. It’s a pay site now. They still have meteograms for free which is cool I guess. Weather.us has free maps but much less visually friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: huh? http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php 404 Not Found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: more to come after that.....a decent amount more too Does it slow down , really crazy progression here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Long duration event as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 With the bowling ball closing off like this and the southern vort backing in....this is a powderkeg run across the board...god dang it, this will drive a weenie crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I’m real curious what the EPS will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lord I miss wx graphics already. From what I can tell, the lead (miller a) shortwave looks weaker and farther east, but the trailing northern stream vorts are in a better position for us. Based on the 168hr map, it looks like we *should*be getting CCBed well. I always worry when it takes that much digging of the northern stream. knock down the upstream ridge a bit and poof, the low runs farther east. Need it to be in the 72 hour time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: If we want a miller b to work out, we want the northern stream shortwaves to show up farther west and cut more over Nebraska and Kansas instead of Wisconsin and Illinois. DING DING fooking DING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: File not found. It’s a pay site now. They still have meteograms for free which is cool I guess. Weather.us has free maps but much less visually friendly. crazy, I'm on it now I guess I had the link open and they changed it afterward I can never close the link now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With the bowling ball closing off like this and the southern vort backing in....this is a powderkeg run across the board...god dang it, this will drive a weenie crazy... A Southwestard moving Blizzard :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, usedtobe said: I always worry when it takes that much digging of the northern stream. knock down the upstream ridge a bit and poof, the low runs farther east. Need it to be in the 72 hour time range. No doubt Wes. This is the first run of any kind that suggests the northern stream closing off south of us. I guess this is still similar in some ways to Jan 2000. Tenuous and fragile are a couple adjectives that come to mind. Unlike more traditional ways to snow...this one has a heck of a lot of stuff to go right and anything that goes wrong ruins all the fun. Complicated + long lead = ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: I always worry when it takes that much digging of the northern stream. knock down the upstream ridge a bit and poof, the low runs farther east. Need it to be in the 72 hour time range. Wes with this setup I wouldn’t feel comfortable until we’re like 36-48hrs out. High risk high reward setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Seems like we get ripped off some how, but still nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Can DT not jump on this threat and kill it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.