SnowLover22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 12z GEFS took a step in the right direction from 6z. More west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Improvement @ h5 too. Has the feel that even though it's shifting for the better that in reality it's still slim pickins in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yea, nice shift west with the mean qpf field. Still doesn't make me feel any better honestly. Still long leads so anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 For you old weenies like me, this is looks more like the blizzard of 78 than 1/25/00. Very sharp cutoff of precip. Bwi ended up with around 9", Dca 6", & Iad had 1". NE nuked of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Let's be honest, we're still 6 days away. The likelihood that this storm keeps the same track is small. So either it trends further west or stays east. I'd bet that this thing has one more major shift left in it for better or for worse before we are really able to start talking details. This shift could take everyone out of the game or put a lot of people in the game. Another thing I like about this potential storm is that we haven't really been in the jackpot on this one yet. Sure the GGEM has given hints but everything else has kind of been OTS. So in my mind, sure it's going to be a bummer if we miss and NE gets it but at least we haven't really been jack-potted yet only to have our hopes dashed. I'm just glad to have something to track for a little while. Trying to look at the upside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, nice shift west with the mean qpf field. Still doesn't make me feel any better honestly. Still long leads so anything can happen. It's hard to feel good when we both know historically this is not a good setup for here. New England yea. If I start to see a trend towards more development earlier in the southeast such that this can come at us from the Ssw not the south or worse southeast then I will feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 For the experts in here, UKMET looks good, no? Seems like nice ridging in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: The 12z GEFS took a step in the right direction from 6z. More west. . We're really just treading water. Yes the 12z gefs is better then 6z but worse then 0z. We got a good euro op run last night but then a bad ggem after 2 good ones. Overall things are bouncing around as they will at this range but for the last 24 hours the clear signal I see is for a northeast storm not a mid Atlantic one. That can change but there is no trend that way that I see. I reserve the right to change my mind after the EPS comes out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's hard to feel good when we both know historically this is not a good setup for here. New England yea. If I start to see a trend towards more development earlier in the southeast such that this can come at us from the Ssw not the south or worse southeast then I will feel better. Correct me if my logic is flawed here but lets assume the trough leading in doesn't dig as much. That would track the gulf coast low further north. Like over the southern tier instead of over the GOM. Could keep the storm closer to the coast by default right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: For the experts in here, UKMET looks good, no? Seems like nice ridging in the West. Where are people even looking at the ukmet anymore. All my old links don't work for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Correct me if my logic is flawed here but lets assume the trough leading in doesn't dig as much. That would track the gulf coast low further north. Like over the southern tier instead of over the GOM. Could keep the storm closer to the coast by default right? Yes it could but that could also lead to a Boxing Day type abomination also. If it's too flat the phase still happens late. It would give us more of a chance but what I would really like to see is a trend stronger in the stj system over the southeast and a trend west in the trough digging behind it. Get the whole thing to start to phase to our south vs to our south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where are people even looking at the ukmet anymore. All my old links don't work for it. Metecentre page, but it’s blocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ha. End of the GEFS run right back to a -EPO/+PNA pattern with the trough developing in the east. -AO too. Through 360hr at least. Temps below normal th e whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ha. End of the GEFS run right back to a -EPO/+PNA pattern with the trough developing in the east. -AO too. Through 360hr at least. Temps below normal th e whole time. And at least after we fail next Thursday there’s a coastal signal a week later to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Strong 10mb warming was good Dec 22-30, then models have a switch to stronger than average PV. At that time, forecasted temps should bust higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I'm not trying to get myself too invested in this storm. If I were to bet money, the Euro will be farther east. Good that a westward trend is happening right now, but I still think it might be a longshot to get a big storm for DC during that timeframe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha. End of the GEFS run right back to a -EPO/+PNA pattern with the trough developing in the east. -AO too. Through 360hr at least. Temps below normal th e whole time. It's always refreshing when a pattern change to bad get pushed back in time. lol. We're usually dealing with the opposite. This year is a good lesson in long lead stuff. Finding the teleconnection that shows it's hand the strongest. This year is the AK/EPO ridge. We've been seeing it load basically since the week before Halloween. Here's the graph from 10/24 through 12/26. I'm not going to believe a long lead extended flip to + until it's already happening and holding in the mid range. Ens D10-15 keeps trying once in a while but it never holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 Looks like 4 flush hits on the GEFS, maybe 1-2 scrapings, and a couple near misses. Most have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha. End of the GEFS run right back to a -EPO/+PNA pattern with the trough developing in the east. -AO too. Through 360hr at least. Temps below normal th e whole time. we do 20s and then the next day back to the 30s/40s pretty well, so the fact that is a fairly sustained pattern (at least for a week) tells me that canada isn't done providing us cold air. farmer forecasting though, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Everyone should like this gif. GEFS 240-384 mslp loop. It's way out there but if your looking for a change to a more conducive pattern for more precip potential (and hopefully the frozen kind) this is a half decent look. Once the big cold high in the TN valley d10 retreats, the GEFS is advertising a string of hp's sliding across to the north. I can see how this can work for us and it's not a dry look either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 GFS ensembles have significant storm, wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 12z Euro looks a good bit further west from yesterdays 12z at 144h. Trough is aligned west of Chicago as compared to the IL/IN border on yesterdays run. Not sure how it compares to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro @144 trough is deeper and more tilted, low is significantly stronger, and blocking HP is more east. Will still be east, I think, but look forward to the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Everyone should like this gif. GEFS 240-384 mslp loop. It's way out there but if your looking for a change to a more conducive pattern for more precip potential (and hopefully the frozen kind) this is a half decent look. Once the big cold high in the TN valley d10 retreats, the GEFS is advertising a string of hp's sliding across to the north. I can see how this can work for us and it's not a dry look either. I am more optimistic about that then the convoluted phase scenario day 7. That long range look would give us real threats. Now just keep it that way. I am fine with risking some warm days if we can get a storm track coming at us from the southwest with highs sliding by to our north. Its not the most perfect setup ever, we would risk being on the wrong side of some, but get that pattern to hold long enough and we would get some frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Precip at 144 hrs. is NOT as far inland as it was at 156 hrs on 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Precip at 144 hrs. is NOT as far inland as it was at 156 hrs on 0Z The trough looks better but the disturbance that forms the storm is further SE. Weird run honestly. The southern disturbance is further SW while the NS energy is further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The trough looks better but the disturbance that forms the storm is further SE. Weird run honestly. Yes I was not happy when I compared the 2 runs because I really thought it was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Yes I was not happy when I compared the 2 runs because I really thought it was better. mighta spoke too soon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Yea, you could see it coming. Everything backs into us from a very unusual angle of attack. Still a win but weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The 0.5" contour is about IAD-FDK....the evolution is scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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