Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[ers-wxman1]

We are really not that far off from a major coastal storm here next week. This is the best look we have had in a long time. Bit of blocking and closer phase and it’s game time. 

[RedSky]

You think Boston likes this solution holy quacamoley!

 

[Eskimo Joe]

We are so close on the 12z to magic take a look at the difference over Greenland at HR 174 on the 6z and HR 168 on the 12z.  So.damn.close.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We are really not that far off from a major coastal storm here next week. This is the best look we have had in a long time. Bit of blocking and closer phase and it’s game time. 

I don't disagree but we are very latitudenally challenged with this no matter how you dice it. Ultimately we need to root for big rains in coastal NE and a tucked solution. Sketchier than SE DC in the 80's. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

We are really not that far off from a major coastal storm here next week. This is the best look we have had in a long time. Bit of blocking and closer phase and it’s game time. 

Agreed, just because we get screwed most times does not mean this time we are. The trends are positive. The atmosphere may want to do this.  The rubberband is going to snap. 

[Bob Chill]

Got some work to do

[ers-wxman1]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't disagree but we are very latitudenally challenged with this no matter how you dice it. Ultimately we need to root for big rains in coastal NE and a tucked solution. Sketchier than SE DC in the 80's. 

For sure. Amplify the west coast ridge and get more blocking from the Atlantic we are golden. I’m cautiously enthusiastic about this one. It at least looks Meteorologically sound vs last weeks 60 hour overrunning fantasy storm. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If I lived in woostah or mt Tolland I’d be excited for next week. They do goofy setups much better than us.

I know you know this but they will always do better in late developing or complicated systems that take time to get going because they are so far northeast. They have way more time to let something get going being further along the path of the storm. We need things to either come together early like a miller a gulf low or bomb perfectly if it's a miller b. I'm rare occasions when it is a miller a or b that bombs early it can hurt New England like in Jan 2000 or the second January 96 storm when they went to rain. 

[mitchnick]

Dang Canadian seems to be delayed

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

For sure. Amplify the west coast ridge and get more blocking from the Atlantic we are golden. I’m cautiously enthusiastic about this one. It at least looks Meteorologically sound vs last weeks 60 hour overrunning fantasy storm. 

Wow that's big coming from you.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I know you know this but they will always do better in late developing or complicated systems that take time to get going because they are so far northeast. They have way more time to let something get going being further along the path of the storm. We need things to either come together early like a miller a gulf low or bomb perfectly if it's a miller b. I'm rare occasions when it is a miller a or b that bombs early it can hurt New England like in Jan 2000 or the second January 96 storm when they went to rain. 

I kind of thought this is a miller a look, even if an odd one, but if you look closely it’s not. That weird shortwave that is oriented e-w in the nothern Rockies by New Years morning isn’t what generates the storm. It’s a northern stream wave (or two) that dives into the upper Midwest late next Tuesday. This is why the models show this weird double barrel low. It’s a fish-miller a next to a miller b. The miller b is what would give us snow. But it’s all timing. There are three short waves involved for the storm/s alone, let alone all the others farther away that create the ridging patterns that could force this close to us. What a mess. Wish I could show this more but I’m on mobile since govt networks really hate AmericanWx.

[ers-wxman1]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wow that's big coming from you.

You know me ;-).  The pieces we are looking at are what you’d typically expect climatologically this time of the year. It makes sense. It’s not a perfect look right now but it’s in the ensembles, op runs and more than one solution. Let’s see if we can win one for a change. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't disagree but we are very latitudenally challenged with this no matter how you dice it. Ultimately we need to root for big rains in coastal NE and a tucked solution. Sketchier than SE DC in the 80's. 

I don't think rooting for a capture and tug west is realistic. What can be is for things to be in sync a bit more initially. Get that wave over the southeast not as suppressed and start the process of cyclogenesis that all guidance has now closer to the Carolina coast vs way OTS and we are in the game. Given the upper pattern it is realistic to think the low will pull due north and tuck once it starts to bomb. The problem for us is most guidance has a frontrunner wave suppressed then it drags the baroclinoc zone way east so everything starts off bad. Get that process to start over the southeast instead and we can win. I don't feel good about needing that. But it's not a trend we haven't seen before. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I kind of thought this is a miller a look, even if an odd one, but if you look closely it’s not. That weird shortwave that is oriented e-w in the nothern Rockies by New Years morning isn’t what generates the storm. It’s a northern stream wave (or two) that dives into the upper Midwest late next Tuesday. This is why the models show this weird double barrel low. It’s a fish-miller a next to a miller b. The miller b is what would give us snow. But it’s all timing. There are three short waves involved for the storm/s alone, let alone all the others farther away that create the ridging patterns that could force this close to us. What a mess. Wish I could show this more but I’m on mobile since govt networks really hate AmericanWx.

Yea as is it's unlikely to work for us. As I said a min ago I'd like to see that initial miller a trend slower and have the northern stream phase in with that over the southeast. That evolution works better.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. Jan 2016 was better. By a lot for the majority of us out here. I never thought I would see 40 inches from one storm before that happened.

To each their own.  I can tell you that 10 miles to your south '16 wasn't nearly  as impressive.  The '16 jackpot was much more localized than '96.  And the immediate warm-up that followed '16 gives it a down-grade IMO.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea as is it's unlikely to work for us. As I said a min ago I'd like to see that initial miller a trend slower and have the northern stream phase in with that over the southeast. That evolution works better.

Yup, fully agree and I said something like that yesterday. Given the pattern in this Nina year, that’s not likely, but who knows?

If we want a miller b to work out, we want the northern stream shortwaves to show up farther west  and cut more over Nebraska and Kansas instead of Wisconsin and Illinois. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, fully agree and I said something like that yesterday. Given the pattern in this Nina year, that’s not likely, but who knows?

If we want a miller b to work out, we want the northern stream shortwaves to show up farther west  and cut more over Nebraska and Kansas instead of Wisconsin and Illinois. 

Hmmm hard to tell with the stupid ukie maps, but that may be exactly what it’s doing. Much more stout ridge out west at 144hr and broader trough in the east. Solid 12 hours or more slower than the GFS as well.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I kind of thought this is a miller a look, even if an odd one, but if you look closely it’s not. That weird shortwave that is oriented e-w in the nothern Rockies by New Years morning isn’t what generates the storm. It’s a northern stream wave (or two) that dives into the upper Midwest late next Tuesday. This is why the models show this weird double barrel low. It’s a fish-miller a next to a miller b. The miller b is what would give us snow. But it’s all timing. There are three short waves involved for the storm/s alone, let alone all the others farther away that create the ridging patterns that could force this close to us. What a mess. Wish I could show this more but I’m on mobile since govt networks really hate AmericanWx.

I agree. It surely starts off as a miller A anyways. Then it gets all convoluted and crazy. I'm not sure how the NWS classify this one. It's not really a typical hybrid either. Just a guess but I would say if the CMC/Euro and now GFS have the general idea right it would be called a Miller A with a late phase or something like that. Don't really know. We only see these types of things present themselves once in a rare while. If I didn't live here for the Jan 2000 deal I wouldn't even have a storm to compare it to. 

There are differences of course but you can see the similarities at least. I picked last night's euro for the comparison because it's closer but the gfs wasn't much different in the big picture:

 

 

[mitchnick]

 I think Canadian still a hit, but maps are 12 hour intervals on this site so not certain. fast mover if it is.

 

[Bob Chill]

Mitch, the 156 panel is from last night. Probably a board cache thing going on. 

[WxUSAF]

GGEM is a miss east but west of GFS. I already hate this storm.

[olafminesaw]

Swing and a miss:

[Bob Chill]

CMC is a miss. Just off the coast. Bah!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Mitch, the 156 panel is from last night. Probably a board cache thing going on. 

Dang missed that.

[Quasievil]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is a miss east but west of GFS. I already hate this storm.

At least it gets us an inch or two of powder vs the GFS which gives the Atlantic Ocean a bomb and NE a "desperately" needed major snowstorm.

Edit: nevermind on the CMC, I was looking at 0z on tidbits.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is a miss east but west of GFS. I already hate this storm.

One thing I've never liked about these setups is we need a west trend not north. The north trend seems way more common then getting a west trend in an offshore system. 

[poolz1]

Welp...looks like wx.graphics went paid subscription...unless i am missing something.  We knew it was coming...

[osfan24]

At least the good news with this one is that all the models now seem to have the general idea, so at least there is something real to track. The bad news is this looks like a convoluted mess that is likely a NE special and the teleconnections really don't favor a big storm for the East Coast anyway.

[Quasievil]

This circle of nothing is so frustrating. We're in between two competing weather systems and losing, badly.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS keeping the hook set with some tucked solutions. Not sure how they look yet but much better than 6z FWIW