Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[WxUSAF]

Even with that look the EPS has in the last couple days, our surface temps are below normal. EPS has also strengthened the EPO ridge in that time frame on each of the last several runs. I’m leaning against a long duration thaw/torch for the first half of January at least.

[frd]

To balance things out 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Wonder if we produce before the pattern shift ? Personally,  I am not sold on the shift just yet. 

 

 

The long range has tried to stick a trough in the west a few times. It did do it very briefly before xmas but it was transient. As long as the epo stays negative my guess is the boundary won't stay too far away from us for too long. The nao means there can be attempts as a se ridge and the cold can pull back at times. This could ultimately help us if we win on some gradient storms. That's how we did it in 2014. 

[susqushawn]

Here is the Gary Gray model discussion archive leading up to the '96 storm...enjoy a stroll down memory lane:

http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/

[frd]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Even with that look the EPS has in the last couple days, our surface temps are below normal. EPS has also strengthened the EPO ridge in that time frame on each of the last several runs. I’m leaning against a long duration thaw/torch for the first half of January at least.

If the driving forces are to a degree West Pac forcing and  the configuration of the Nina why would any warmth be long-term ?\\

I question a big time warm up and any relax could be brief. Added to that,  the QBO stats HM posted and I feel the cold has legs. Plus if snow cover down the cold would be harder to displace .

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wonder if we produce before the pattern shift ? Personally,  I am not sold on the shift just yet. 
 
 

Almost looks like what ens means were spitting out 11-15 days prior to this current week. I dont know about you guys but it doesnt feel too warm outside to me, just saying ;-)

[Buddy1987]

8 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Here is the Gary Gray model discussion archive leading up to the '96 storm...enjoy a stroll down memory lane:

http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/

Man that is an epic read! ROA registered 20'' of amazingness! If only...

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Dude that's the hair, the eyes are blue

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The long range has tried to stick a trough in the west a few times. It did do it very briefly before xmas but it was transient. As long as the epo stays negative my guess is the boundary won't stay too far away from us for too long. The nao means there can be attempts as a se ridge and the cold can pull back at times. This could ultimately help us if we win on some gradient storms. That's how we did it in 2014. 

It has but there has been a notable down turn in mean temps late in the period so my guess is a trough does dig in the west but it's going to be on the move and the NA cold loading pattern will remain somewhat if not fully intact longer than was first advertised. 

Going back 4 EPS runs looked like the warm back to or above normal was gaining steam. It's been centered around the 7th. It made sense because these runs did not include good ridge placement to keep Canada cold

 

I noticed all the ops grabbing onto the AK/EPO ridge reload yesterday and even though it's D10, all globals had their own version so it had support. Ensembles are following:

 

 

It's probably for the best that we don't get stuck in a repeating pattern that were in now. Poor HP placement like you mentioned yesterday is great for freezing ponds but terrible for creating big snow storms. 

Even with the trough potentially digging in the west it looks like we have "ok" HP placement moving through d11-15. It's centered to the north then NE. This would allow something to attack from the SW. Ptype issues of course but the current progs down the line keep improving and pushing back any meaningful flip to warm. 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Jan '96.  The end-all and the be-all, the alpha and the omega.  Out here, there is no equal, nor likely will there ever be.

I disagree. Jan 2016 was better. By a lot for the majority of us out here. I never thought I would see 40 inches from one storm before that happened.

[Bob Chill]

I wanted to expand on my previous post a little. A lot of folks know this but I wanted to explain this panel and as to why it isn't a warm look in the east. The rule of "bn heights west and an heights east = warm" doesn't always apply. 

 

 

 

If the 500mb isobars were running "uphill" at us then it's a warm look. But seeing W-E aligned isobars signals confluence or "compressed" upper level flow. When you have confluence to the N, the upper level flow actually "creates" high pressure where there is convergence. Converging air creates higher pressure and diverging air creates low pressure. Banana highs are more often a by product of confluence/convergence than a more typical "high moving into place".

 

The very simple and short story is when you seen tightly spaced W-E aligned isobars @ 500mb it means there is most likely surface high pressure underneath. If you compare the MSLP panel in my previous post to the area of greatest convergence/confluence it's easy to see the connection.  A surface high located in the area of the greatest convergence on the map above = source of cold air for us. Above normal heights don't always mean warm and if we manage to have confluence to our north while there is a trough in the west then we can still easily get winter wx. 

 

Here's the d15 2M temp anomaly plot. The cold conus pattern is different that what we are seeing now but it's still a cold conus pattern nonetheless. 

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. Jan 2016 was better. By a lot for the majority of us out here. I never thought I would see 40 inches from one storm before that happened.

Yep...completely agree.  I didnt see 40 but I saw 35, which beat '96 by 8" imby.  I can see those further east disagreeing but for us western folk 2016 is at the top of the list imo.

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill

when the epo is negative the cold will keep loading and press. That can mean the boundary pushes farther into height heights then you would typically expect. Add in what you said about that pattern being conducive to high pressure where we want it and it's not impossible to envision something coming at us along the boundary from the southwest with enough of a high to our north to keep the boundary to our south. Less amped would be better in such a setup. 

[WxUSAF]

Big change on the GFS in how it handles the shortwave for next weeks Lucy, I mean storm. Much more euro/Canadian depiction through 132 at least.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Big change on the GFS in how it handles the shortwave for next weeks Lucy, I mean storm. Much more euro/Canadian depiction through 132 at least.

ha! This possible storm has emotional disaster written all over it. 

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This possible storm

All I read.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

ha! This possible storm has emotional disaster written all over it. 

Absolutely it does. Of course I’m going to watch it because otherwise we’re just chasing single digit low temps. But the whole depiction is goofy. I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying it would snow with this sort of solution until 36-48hrs out.

[Interstate]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Absolutely it does. Of course I’m going to watch it because otherwise we’re just chasing single digit low temps. But the whole depiction is goofy. I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying it would snow with this sort of solution until 36-48  3 hrs out.

Fixed

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Absolutely it does. Of course I’m going to watch it because otherwise we’re just chasing single digit low temps. But the whole depiction is goofy. I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying it would snow with this sort of solution until 36-48hrs out.

At least the GFS joined the party so to speak. Just misses the tug from the NS. Close enough I guess. I hate this hobby (and this storm). 

[mitchnick]

It's got to capture it at 156 and that looks like a long shot, but changes are nonetheless good.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

At least the GFS joined the part so to speak. Just misses the tug from the NS. Close enough I guess. I hate this hobby (and this storm). 

yep....hard enough dealing with things in life you can change, but even worse when your mood depends on things you can't

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

At least the GFS joined the part so to speak. Just misses the tug from the NS. Close enough I guess. I hate this hobby (and this storm). 

GFS was a YUGE step toward the euro/GGEM even if it’s a fish for us.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, mitchnick said:

yep....hard enough dealing with things in life you can change, but even worse when your mood depends on things you can't

The thing that stinks about things like this is they rare and unconventional...but...it's close enough to not write off. And of course there's a chance we get a Jan 2000 pummeling. 

[Superstorm]

GFS was a YUGE step toward the euro/GGEM even if it’s a fish for us.

At least models are closing in on a solution and not worlds apart.

First the GFS is sniffing this out.


.

[Ji]

yep....hard enough dealing with things in life you can change, but even worse when your mood depends on things you can't

This feels like old school where euro has a noreaster and gfs has it out to sea but trending towards euro. Maybe its wishful thinking

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

This feels like old school where euro has a noreaster and gfs has it out to sea but trending towards euro. Maybe its wishful thinking

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

You and I both know we're in for a med range pummeling. Maybe not today...or tomorrow...but there's going to be that ONE run that sucks us in like a neodymium magnet. Fasten seat belts and put head between legs. 

[Bob Chill]

The good thing is the GFS NUKES the F out of SNE/NNE. That's good right?

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's got to capture it at 156 and that looks like a long shot, but changes are nonetheless good.

Atleast it captures in time to slam sne.

Lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Atleast it captures in time to slam sne.

Lol

They get this no matter what, either a snow bomb or a rain/snow bomb which likely happens if it comes far enough east for us

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The good thing is the GFS NUKES the F out of SNE/NNE. That's good right?

If I lived in woostah or mt Tolland I’d be excited for next week. They do goofy setups much better than us.