Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Well I asked about this before, don't think there was a response, but does anyone recall how far in advance there was a good forecast for the 1996 storm? I was on holiday in Arizona when that happened and it was pre-internet (almost) so I only heard about it after the fact. And I realize the models in 1996 were not quite at the current level (you could take that either way, I suppose).

 

I wasn't alive back then, I but I recall watching a video that models were spot on medium-short term, but had a SE bias leading up to the event, especially NW of Baltimore.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Well I asked about this before, don't think there was a response, but does anyone recall how far in advance there was a good forecast for the 1996 storm? I was on holiday in Arizona when that happened and it was pre-internet (almost) so I only heard about it after the fact. And I realize the models in 1996 were not quite at the current level (you could take that either way, I suppose).

 

Started on the boards (this same board through its many transitions) a couple of weeks before the 96 storm. If I recall correctly the models didn't even have a storm mid-range (around day 5 or so?). But we had Dr Gray https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray  on the boards at that time and he was a pro. Almost immediately (think the models went to day 10 then) he was on it saying there was a strong storm signal. He never backed down even when the models had nothing. Even at day 2/3 when the models were saying otherwise (think they had the storm quite a bit OTS) he was calling for this to be a substantial east coast storm. He nailed it from start to finish where as the models struggled (if I recall correctly) with it until mid/short range. 

[mitchnick]

Dang, Euro precip pattern sure does look like 1/25/00 in these parts.

[Roger Smith]

GFS 06z staying out of this storm window, has basically nothing for the time window Jan 3-4. Epic model showdown to follow? Or will the first event stall and become the real deal cancelling the second cycle (a blend perhaps?).

I do some forecasting in Ireland and UK, same constant change from day to day recently, for example on 31st, Euro has very strong winds for Ireland, GFS only moderate. The ebbs and flows past Jan 1 are large but continue to depend on these east coast U.S. systems which generally show up over there 3-4 days later in some form or another. 

This is complicated but I think that most of the standard indices used for teleconnections have alternate explanations within solar system magnetic field fluxes, and there is one at present which would temporarily move too high for earth's orbital plane then move back down (with retrograde motion). This may be the actual "reason" for this model chaos, that signal probably drained out of the input a few days ago and is about to be reinserted (around Bering to Beaufort region). When it is reinserted, I think models will begin to make substantial changes. 

[Interstate]

Who is going to start the storm thread. This might be our only one for the new year and it might be gone at 12z. 

[Jebman]

Chill is gonna start the storm thread.

[mitchnick]

And for those worried about a breakdown in tge pattern,  the 10 day Euro should have you smiling.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Started on the boards (this same board through its many transitions) a couple of weeks before the 96 storm. If I recall correctly the models didn't even have a storm mid-range (around day 5 or so?). But we had Dr Gray https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray  on the boards at that time and he was a pro. Almost immediately (think the models went to day 10 then) he was on it saying there was a strong storm signal. He never backed down even when the models had nothing. Even at day 2/3 when the models were saying otherwise (think they had the storm quite a bit OTS) he was calling for this to be a substantial east coast storm. He nailed it from start to finish where as the models struggled (if I recall correctly) with it until mid/short range. 

Are you sure you have the same storm (Jan 6. 1996) or are you referencing a different one that month? This was my first storm tracking. That year is was the Euro/ETA models working in tandem. This storm was hinted at 6 days prior very strongly on the Euro. Showed all the signals for a MECS.....huge PNA ridge, deep Eastern U$ trof, bomboggenesis being depicted along the SE Coast headed NE (thus why the Southern MA zones had heaviest banding forecasts up until 48 hours prior when the ETA (NAM) and AVN shifted N with that heaviest band. So yes, it was definitely signaled well in advance for the time. It was at day 5 when TWC began mentioning it and I started the VHS recordings. The first OCM to make note was Dave Schwartz (God rest his soul) and I was able to capture this on video.   

 

 

 

[Neblizzard]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And for those worried about a breakdown in tge pattern,  the 10 day Euro should have you smiling.

Man that EPO keeps reloading , too bad we can’t get help from the Atlantic 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Man that EPO keeps reloading , too bad we can’t get help from the Atlantic 

Yes it does. But then,  the other point was the smiling face on the map, but maybe I'm the only one that sees it.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes it does. But then,  the other point was the smiling face on the map, but maybe I'm the only one that sees it.

I see IT

[RDM]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes it does. But then,  the other point was the smiling face on the map, but maybe I'm the only one that sees it.

I saw it too.  The blue "hair dew" across Nrn Canada almost looks like an Elvis style...

Wish the trough would shift west a bit so if the split flow kicks something at us from the SS it has a better chance to ride up the coast and not so much OTS.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes it does. But then,  the other point was the smiling face on the map, but maybe I'm the only one that sees it.

I would smile about the smile a lot more if the left eye was a deep red circle like the right one.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Man that EPO keeps reloading , too bad we can’t get help from the Atlantic 

We get help on the Euro at the right time it looks like. Something to watch for if we want a MECS in this pattern that I referenced yesterday.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I would smile about the smile a lot more if the left eye was a deep red circle like the right one.

Dude that's the hair, the eyes are blue

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are you sure you have the same storm (Jan 6. 1996) or are you referencing a different one that month? This was my first storm tracking. That year is was the Euro/ETA models working in tandem. This storm was hinted at 6 days prior very strongly on the Euro. Showed all the signals for a MECS.....huge PNA ridge, deep Eastern U$ trof, bomboggenesis being depicted along the SE Coast headed NE (thus why the Southern MA zones had heaviest banding forecasts up until 48 hours prior when the ETA (NAM) and AVN shifted N with that heaviest band. So yes, it was definitely signaled well in advance for the time. It was at day 5 when TWC began mentioning it and I started the VHS recordings. The first OCM to make note was Dave Schwartz (God rest his soul) and I was able to capture this on video.   

 

 

 

Memory isn't the greatest so maybe I am off a little. But as far as I remember the storm wasn't picked up till the mid range (I said day 5, but it could very well have been day 6). And the system was initially suppressed into the Carolinas where it then went quickly OTS. Only inside of 2 days (maybe 3 days) did it start incrementally bringing it northward. But as you said, for that time the models did fairly well. I just thought the fact that Dr Gray was hitting on it days before the models even started sniffing it out was noteworthy. I just wish I could go back to that thread and reread it. It was a great week/week and a half.

[PDIII]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Started on the boards (this same board through its many transitions) a couple of weeks before the 96 storm. If I recall correctly the models didn't even have a storm mid-range (around day 5 or so?). But we had Dr Gray https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray  on the boards at that time and he was a pro. Almost immediately (think the models went to day 10 then) he was on it saying there was a strong storm signal. He never backed down even when the models had nothing. Even at day 2/3 when the models were saying otherwise (think they had the storm quite a bit OTS) he was calling for this to be a substantial east coast storm. He nailed it from start to finish where as the models struggled (if I recall correctly) with it until mid/short range. 

The blizzard of 96 featured an enormous moisture plume draped across half the country with a double barrelled low pressure forming along the southern gulf state..  and this was the surface look about 48 hours prior to game time here.  It was an absolute monster. If he models were saying OTS at a 2 day lead.. Then something was way off.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, PDIII said:

The blizzard of 96 featured an enormous moisture plume draped across half the country with a double barrelled low pressure forming along the southern gulf state..  and this was the surface look about 48 hours prior to game time here.  It was an absolute monster. If he models were saying OTS at a 2 day lead.. Then something was way off.

I don't think at day 2-3 they were necessarily OTS anymore.  They certainly were at Day 5 except the Euro, and I want to say the Euro was more OTS at day 5 than it was at day 7.

[PDIII]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think at day 2-3 they were necessarily OTS anymore.  They certainly were at Day 5 except the Euro, and I want to say the Euro was more OTS at day 5 than it was at day 7.

Read this.. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwi6i-zA2qzYAhURMd8KHQKPALwQFggsMAM&usg=AOvVaw1iHsHO58Z1X10woWGbzJ8b

What a great report! 

Basically... The euro nailed the 500 mb look at 120 hours. And what it was showing a nearly closed low over the lower Mississippi valley.   At that point you figure out what what the flow is in the jet stream and draw a line a destruction... 

I guess what I am saying is the "east coast" component of the storm.. while relevant... Didn't really matter in terms of predicting a major snow storm. 96 took shape way before it got anywhere near us...

[Ralph Wiggum]

I was right outside PHL during 96. The one memory that I go back to was living on a non-plowed cul-de-sac and walking into the street with consistent snow depths to halfway up my thighs (6' body height). The 30.7" they measured officially at PHL 5 miles to my east wasnt far off, maybe even a hair conservative. Un-hijacking the thread now but that is my favorite snowstorm memory partly because it was my first event to 'track' ushering in the online era.

[North Balti Zen]

You know how nostalgic you all get for the 1/25/00 surprise? That’s what the jan 6-7 storm in ‘96 is for my memories from where I was in Ohio. I was living between Dayton and Columbus in Springfield along I70. We were supposed to get an inch. We ended up with a foot of snow and blizzard conditions. It was absolutely unforecast and even as it was unfolding they were slow to catch up. It was awesome. In case you are curious:

http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=53

[Rtd208]

35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think at day 2-3 they were necessarily OTS anymore.  They certainly were at Day 5 except the Euro, and I want to say the Euro was more OTS at day 5 than it was at day 7.

 

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was right outside PHL during 96. The one memory that I go back to was living on a non-plowed cul-de-sac and walking into the street with consistent snow depths to halfway up my thighs (6' body height). The 30.7" they measured officially at PHL 5 miles to my east wasnt far off, maybe even a hair conservative. Un-hijacking the thread now but that is my favorite snowstorm memory partly because it was my first event to 'track' ushering in the online era.

The blizzard of 96 is certainly one of my top 3. If I recall correctly up until the night before the heaviest snow was expected to fall south of my area (same area I am in now) and as Saturday evening progressed the amounts of expected snowfall increased dramatically. I believe the 6:00 pm newscast was calling for around 6-12" and by the time the 11:00 pm newscast rolled around they were expecting as much as 1-2'+. Snow began falling just before dawn Sunday morning and the rest is history, wound up with right around 30" of accumulation here.

[midatlanticweather]

43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think at day 2-3 they were necessarily OTS anymore.  They certainly were at Day 5 except the Euro, and I want to say the Euro was more OTS at day 5 than it was at day 7.

The issue was that the models developed the low on the wrong front. The main low ended up on the arctic front which was missed until a few days before the storm was to hit. I do believe the Euro figured it out first and DT, Dr gray  and a few other pro Mets felt the situation was primed for a big east coast storm. When the Euro showed it first on the arctic front the US forecasters still did not believe it until the American models finally picked up in the right set up just a few days before it hit. That is what I recall. 

[WxUSAF]

Man that double low structure on the euro and Canadian seems fraught with disaster. I’d feel more comfortable if that trailing vort slows down or disappears and the primary vort can get a neutral or negative tilt farther west rather than hope it gets captured just in the nick of time. 

[aldie 22]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Man that double low structure on the euro and Canadian seems fraught with disaster. I’d feel more comfortable if that trailing vort slows down or disappears and the primary vort can get a neutral or negative tilt farther west rather than hope it gets captured just in the nick of time. 

Way to ruin the 96 vibe man lol

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are you sure you have the same storm (Jan 6. 1996) or are you referencing a different one that month? This was my first storm tracking. That year is was the Euro/ETA models working in tandem. This storm was hinted at 6 days prior very strongly on the Euro. Showed all the signals for a MECS.....huge PNA ridge, deep Eastern U$ trof, bomboggenesis being depicted along the SE Coast headed NE (thus why the Southern MA zones had heaviest banding forecasts up until 48 hours prior when the ETA (NAM) and AVN shifted N with that heaviest band. So yes, it was definitely signaled well in advance for the time. It was at day 5 when TWC began mentioning it and I started the VHS recordings. The first OCM to make note was Dave Schwartz (God rest his soul) and I was able to capture this on video.   

 

 

 

You're both somewhat right. The euro was hinting at a big east coast blizzard from 6 days. But even the euro was south with the heavy snow being richmond to NC. The American models started to pick up on it around day 4 but were way south. Then everything trended North a bit each day from there. For DC the forecast went from maybe some light snow on Wednesday to by Friday 3-6 or 4-8". Then the runs Friday evening came in and went all in and the 11 news is when they finally realized it was going to be big in D.C.  The next day is when they caught on for NYC also. But all week there was a buzz about the "chance" of a blizzard. It seemed they knew it might come north even though the official forecast was tame. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Jan '96.  The end-all and the be-all, the alpha and the omega.  Out here, there is no equal, nor likely will there ever be.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Dang, Euro precip pattern sure does look like 1/25/00 in these parts.

At 12z, it'll look like today's precip pattern.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Way to ruin the 96 vibe man lol

I'll try to help. No one pointed out the euro control is identical. A good sign the op wasn't just a fluke. Still probably wrong but better then if it showed nothing. Gfs being way off doesn't bother me at this range.  Next step is wanting to see continued positive trends in the EPS geps and gefs today. And an op run hit or two. 

some falls before and after this too. Qpf is modest but that's the high ratio fluff factor place to be in a developing storm. I've seen it many times up here. Lots of those coastal bombs where I ended up with the same or more actual snow from 1" qpf as places to my southeast with 2" qpf. 

[frd]

Wonder if we produce before the pattern shift ? Personally,  I am not sold on the shift just yet.