Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GFS does too little too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Interested to see if the GEPS and GEFS continue to trend favorably for the Jan 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Interested to see if the GEPS and GEFS continue to trend favorably for the Jan 3-6. I have a feeling they won't, since the ops are further East than their previous runs, but we're so far out so trends at this point don't really matter. If anything one op will just latch on to the idea (Like the Canadian still is trying to), and the ensembles will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I will stick with the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: My lips are chapped just looking at this Looks like a good stretch of shuffling your feet on the carpet and pretending to be Thor is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 +NAO likely turns into super powerful western Canada/NAO ridge by mid-January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 GEFS is wetter once again. Strange. Wonder if op will follow with the GEFS for next week's event, or the GEFS will go towards the GFS solution. Probably the latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS is wetter once again. Strange. Wonder if op will follow with the GEFS for next week's event, or the GEFS will go towards the GFS solution. Probably the latter Really? Based off wxgraphics seems a little drier through Jan 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Really? Based off wxgraphics seems a little drier through Jan 7. It caught up, but it was wetter through the 5th, at least for DC and points East Vs 18z: Pretty sure that's because GEFS mean suggested later onset of this potential "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Some tucked soltuions in the mix. Not a single one on the 18z run. Fairly significant shift west overall but favored track is still plenty east of what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It caught up, but it was wetter through the 5th, at least for DC and points East Vs 18z: Pretty sure that's because GEFS mean suggested later onset of this potential "event" IMO, just the GEFS keying on the Jan 3-4 rather than 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Some tucked soltuions in the mix. Not a single one on the 18z run. Fairly significant shift west overall. That's good. Hope this is an overall trend. I saw one of the members that looked incredible similar to Jan 25th, 2000, so I'll post that in the digital snow thread. Jan 25th 2000 storm happened in a La Nina year, so I wonder what if the patterns are similar? Does anyone have any info I could look into on that? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 0z GEFS run is the best in a while for medium to long range (120hr-300hr). Slightly less precip than 18z, but colder. Not jumping the gun, so let's see what the other ensembles have to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, ATreglown said: This cold air mass sitting on top of us just does not produce snow. Yes, areas can be cold like NE and the Upper Midwest and produce. But this air mass is not only cold, but VERY dry. I can remember actually having some light snow showers with a similar type of cold, tried to do some cover, but literally evaporated into nothing. Very strange, but that is what cold and dry can do. The air isn't too cold or too dry. It might snow Saturday. The problem getting a significant system is a combo of bad luck then bad pattern. The thing this week fell apart when the stj crapped the bed leaving only a weak flat northern steam system to work with. After that loop the gfs and just look where the highs set up. Hr 126. 1043 in Oklahoma. Hr 204 1040 in WV Hr 216 1036 over SC Hr 300 1036 over western TN How's that supposed to work? We need high pressure to our north. Not over us or to our south. I've seen it sh!tting snow at temps near 0 before. This has nothing to do with how cold or dry it is. It's the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 ECM with a day 7 Miller A-bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Euro making me hate this hobby more and more. We score a decent event with a Day 7 Miller A. 5-10" DC and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Euro making me hate this hobby more and more. We score a decent event with a Day 7 Miller A. 5-10" DC and East. Was gonna point that out. At least now we fully know the risks and can tread lightly. If it trends better, great, but if it trends worse, that's to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Was gonna point that out. At least now we fully know the risks and can tread lightly. If it trends better, great, but if it trends worse, that's to be expected. I will start to take it more seriously if EPS has a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 A low develops out to see and energy transfers back to the coast reverse Miller B? The first low dies when it hits Nova Scotia,while the second one is bombing over Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 DCA REVERSE HEAT ISLAND LOL King Euro I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That first low is the southern energy. It helps move the frontal boundary a bit farther E. Without it this would likely be a cutter IMO (Not like an Apps cutter, but where it comes on shore near S NJ for example). Especially with the HP that is ENE of us. The position of the trough will have a lot to do with the PNA & the energy left over across the country between 96-120 hours. This has the potential to be a truly WICKED storm. Low forms off the Southeast coast and moves to N NE in 24 hours. It also bombs down to the low 980 high 70s it looks like. Quick mover. Lots of moving pieces which would determine where it forms & if we get a full phase or not. Long way to go. The GEFS looked good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That potential storm has DC/Baltimore snowhole written all over it. We've seen it before in storms such as Dec 26th 2010. Not saying it'll happen, but that's the feeling in my gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 49 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I will start to take it more seriously if EPS has a strong signal. EPS has stronger signal. Sadly, it's the strongest signal since this Friday's "event" as depicted last week, also 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Many lows are tucked in. Close to a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 The relation of this depicted storm (Euro and CMC) is almost identical to Jan 1996 in terms of it starting to develop at the full moon and peaking 36 hours after the full moon, just that this year the full moon is on 2nd and that year it was 5th. Also (so far) this very promising development is not starting from the eastern GOM although it could have that component in future model runs, for certain there will be nasty things happening around Florida if the full rush of arctic air heads south into the central GOM. All that's needed now is for the flow to retrogress 10-15 deg so these polar lows at 500 mb drop into KY-TN-wNC rather than PA-NJ-LI which can only lead to 2-4" lucky break potential. "I have a good feeling about this." (comeback reference if you're a sports fan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The relation of this depicted storm (Euro and CMC) is almost identical to Jan 1996 in terms of it starting to develop at the full moon and peaking 36 hours after the full moon, just that this year the full moon is on 2nd and that year it was 5th. Also (so far) this very promising development is not starting from the eastern GOM although it could have that component in future model runs, for certain there will be nasty things happening around Florida if the full rush of arctic air heads south into the central GOM. All that's needed now is for the flow to retrogress 10-15 deg so these polar lows at 500 mb drop into KY-TN-wNC rather than PA-NJ-LI which can only lead to 2-4" lucky break potential. "I have a good feeling about this." (comeback reference if you're a sports fan) You have been on point with the potential of a big storm around this timeframe, given a few days early for your prediction. I have hope, but I'm trying to tread lightly so if the models shift the wrong way I'm not disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: A low develops out to see and energy transfers back to the coast reverse Miller B? The first low dies when it hits Nova Scotia,while the second one is bombing over Albany. About 4 Gefs members also show this crazy westward redevelopment solution with heavy snow backing into the Del Marva or Jersey. None of them track a low over Burlington, though, so that part of the Euro run I have my doubts on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: About 4 Gefs members also show this crazy westward redevelopment solution with heavy snow backing into the Del Marva or Jersey. None of them track a low over Burlington, though, so that part of the Euro run I have my doubts on. I'm just glad the Euro is for once being bullish. Not gonna say that the big ones are predicted early, cause we said that last week, and we all know what happened during that time. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Well I asked about this before, don't think there was a response, but does anyone recall how far in advance there was a good forecast for the 1996 storm? I was on holiday in Arizona when that happened and it was pre-internet (almost) so I only heard about it after the fact. And I realize the models in 1996 were not quite at the current level (you could take that either way, I suppose). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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