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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Methinks the only way to feel confident this year is when the Euro and Gfs agree (which has yet to happen on a medium to long range threat) and there be solid support from their two ensembles, the Ukie and Canadian. Seriously.  It's just one of those years where nothing is coming easy on the modeling front.

We need to keep the memory fresh of our only modest event of the season...we were totally out of the game until 72 hour lead time...

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We need to keep the memory fresh of our only modest event of the season...we were totally out of the game until 72 hour lead time...

Which is true and consistent with what has been a poorly modeled season past the shory range, thanks on the most part to bad luck that the medium and long range stuff all failed. Otoh, the Navgem did a pretty good job with 12/9 beyond 72 hrs. and really beat everything else.....just don't tell anybody I said that, ok?

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45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think what I was trying to say came out wrong. Of course we'll discuss every opportunity. But unfortunately when we discuss it people start biting and then when things take a bad turn there's a pile on of negative, frustrated, or even angry posts from a lot of people and then everything goes off the rails and the thread ends up in the sewer. I'm not sure if this year is any different than other ones but it feels like it is  

The ironic thing is the pile ons of "long range is dumb and useless" posts come from the same group multiple times but reading and participating here is 100% optional. Lol. If you don't find any value in long range discussion and it causes you emotional unrest then my god just don't read or participate. Simple solution right? Heh

The possible jacked up coastal that's starting to gain some some support is a very low odds proposition. Especially in our region. If we starting seeing a lot of support I hope people realize that the low odds part doesn't go away no matter how many runs show it until we're in a reasonable range.  Like inside of 96 hours or so.  

I see your points. It does feel different this year. We're relatively early in the season and many of us are ahead of climo and yet the mood twice had entered the dumpster. And both times over relatively minor things. A transient ridge that was just a blip in a longer epo dominated cold stretch. And a very long range threat fail. Used to take more to have things go nuclear. Not sure why. 

I agree on the day 8 coastal thing. But there are ways it could trend into a better setup. The northern stream as of now seems to want to dig more and further west then now. That opens the door for some amplification.  Get the trough to dig to our west enough and we aren't as reliant on the stj being juiced. Even a modest vort could get the job done. We don't need some Baja connected stj flow if we can get something to dig under us to our west and amplify. It's a harder road for sure. A nice juiced stj over top of an arctic airmass would be the easy road. But we got detoured. It's not often so yes this is low prob and I hope everyone gets that, but it has happened before. We have seen it even in some ninas. We won't do as well seasonally as north of us in a northern stream dom pattern but we can win a battle sometimes. All I'm doing is looking for the larger scale changes I want to increase our chances in that window. Today was a decent day in that regard but still a lot of work needed there. 

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25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is hour 78 850 map off tonight's Nam. I chose it because it is a new run. You would think that with that temp gradient at 850 there would be a storm along it, but no....nada. Just unusual. 

 

namconus_T850_us_51.png

Mitch, two things. #1, we did have the gfs and Euro agree, along with their ensembles for our storm that we were supposed to get this Friday. They were in remarkable agreement 8-10 days out until it went kapoof. #2, that look on the Nam is pretty freakin decent, although it is probably namming people right now. SnowGoose made a good observation I was unaware of, in which the Nam received an upgrade in late 2017 and it seems to have corrected its over amplifying of our weather systems. Good note to have when looking at it. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Mitch, two things. #1, we did have the gfs and Euro agree, along with their ensembles for our storm that we were supposed to get this Friday. They were in remarkable agreement 8-10 days out until it went kapoof. #2, that look on the Nam is pretty freakin decent, although it is probably namming people right now. SnowGoose made a good observation I was unaware of, in which the Nam received an upgrade in late 2017 and it seems to have corrected its over amplifying of our weather systems. Good note to have when looking at it. 

It was 2016 by the way.  In September I think.  I just realized I was off by a good year.  Last winter the NAM, especially the first half of the winter did very well.  It was awful in the 2nd half 

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26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is hour 78 850 map off tonight's Nam. I chose it because it is a new run. You would think that with that temp gradient at 850 there would be a storm along it, but no....nada. Just unusual. 

 

namconus_T850_us_51.png

And with the Low just west of Texas and what looks to be an ULL off the coast of Baja, we'd normally get excited about those too, but nada, again.  I want something, anything, even a mere RECS to develop 10 days out that the majority of models stick with run after run so we can appease ourselves with the fact there is some predictability to this cursed hobby science...

BTW - I'm desperate too, so threw the RECS out there for consideration, RECS = Rudimentary East Coast Storm.  It would be far to greedy to ponder a SECS, pray for a MECS, dream about a SECS, or even mention the concept of a BECS

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Marginal improvements on that NAM run, better than nothing, and of course there's that second window beyond NAM range, I have a perhaps unjustified optimism that something's gotta give, the cold seems a bit bottled up in the central plains to upper Great Lakes for this massive suppression scenario in the southeast, I think that can change in any given model run to game on and a fast evolution to a decent event. And if not, may I say that you (a) deserve some snow and (b) can have some of ours, we are up to the wazoo in it and more is on the way. 

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23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Marginal improvements on that NAM run, better than nothing, and of course there's that second window beyond NAM range, I have a perhaps unjustified optimism that something's gotta give, the cold seems a bit bottled up in the central plains to upper Great Lakes for this massive suppression scenario in the southeast, I think that can change in any given model run to game on and a fast evolution to a decent event. And if not, may I say that you (a) deserve some snow and (b) can have some of ours, we are up to the wazoo in it and more is on the way

Don't make me have to come up there and show you how to dig snow like a true Canadien.

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4 hours ago, stormy said:

The Old Timers were right!!  This winter reminds of the winter of 76-77. Brutal cold and dry. I received 15 inches of snow that winter compared to my normal 24 inches. The pattern must relax and it will in mid to late January. Fancy footwork can be done with the pattern that raises hope, but 90% of the time, that fancy footwork will fade away. 

We've been cold for 24 hours and you want to compare this winter to 76-77? Maybe we should wait about 6 weeks before we do that.

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This cold air mass sitting on top of us just does not produce snow. Yes, areas can be cold like NE and the Upper Midwest and produce. But this air mass is not only cold, but VERY dry. I can remember actually having some light snow showers with a similar type of cold, tried to do some cover, but literally evaporated into nothing. Very strange, but that is what cold and dry can do. 

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