Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Methinks the only way to feel confident this year is when the Euro and Gfs agree (which has yet to happen on a medium to long range threat) and there be solid support from their two ensembles, the Ukie and Canadian. Seriously. It's just one of those years where nothing is coming easy on the modeling front. We need to keep the memory fresh of our only modest event of the season...we were totally out of the game until 72 hour lead time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I get the uneasy feeling we have a monster op run in our near future. Just feels like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to keep the memory fresh of our only modest event of the season...we were totally out of the game until 72 hour lead time... Which is true and consistent with what has been a poorly modeled season past the shory range, thanks on the most part to bad luck that the medium and long range stuff all failed. Otoh, the Navgem did a pretty good job with 12/9 beyond 72 hrs. and really beat everything else.....just don't tell anybody I said that, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think what I was trying to say came out wrong. Of course we'll discuss every opportunity. But unfortunately when we discuss it people start biting and then when things take a bad turn there's a pile on of negative, frustrated, or even angry posts from a lot of people and then everything goes off the rails and the thread ends up in the sewer. I'm not sure if this year is any different than other ones but it feels like it is The ironic thing is the pile ons of "long range is dumb and useless" posts come from the same group multiple times but reading and participating here is 100% optional. Lol. If you don't find any value in long range discussion and it causes you emotional unrest then my god just don't read or participate. Simple solution right? Heh The possible jacked up coastal that's starting to gain some some support is a very low odds proposition. Especially in our region. If we starting seeing a lot of support I hope people realize that the low odds part doesn't go away no matter how many runs show it until we're in a reasonable range. Like inside of 96 hours or so. I see your points. It does feel different this year. We're relatively early in the season and many of us are ahead of climo and yet the mood twice had entered the dumpster. And both times over relatively minor things. A transient ridge that was just a blip in a longer epo dominated cold stretch. And a very long range threat fail. Used to take more to have things go nuclear. Not sure why. I agree on the day 8 coastal thing. But there are ways it could trend into a better setup. The northern stream as of now seems to want to dig more and further west then now. That opens the door for some amplification. Get the trough to dig to our west enough and we aren't as reliant on the stj being juiced. Even a modest vort could get the job done. We don't need some Baja connected stj flow if we can get something to dig under us to our west and amplify. It's a harder road for sure. A nice juiced stj over top of an arctic airmass would be the easy road. But we got detoured. It's not often so yes this is low prob and I hope everyone gets that, but it has happened before. We have seen it even in some ninas. We won't do as well seasonally as north of us in a northern stream dom pattern but we can win a battle sometimes. All I'm doing is looking for the larger scale changes I want to increase our chances in that window. Today was a decent day in that regard but still a lot of work needed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This is hour 78 850 map off tonight's Nam. I chose it because it is a new run. You would think that with that temp gradient at 850 there would be a storm along it, but no....nada. Just unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This is hour 78 850 map off tonight's Nam. I chose it because it is a new run. You would think that with that temp gradient at 850 there would be a storm along it, but no....nada. Just unusual. Mitch, two things. #1, we did have the gfs and Euro agree, along with their ensembles for our storm that we were supposed to get this Friday. They were in remarkable agreement 8-10 days out until it went kapoof. #2, that look on the Nam is pretty freakin decent, although it is probably namming people right now. SnowGoose made a good observation I was unaware of, in which the Nam received an upgrade in late 2017 and it seems to have corrected its over amplifying of our weather systems. Good note to have when looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Mitch, two things. #1, we did have the gfs and Euro agree, along with their ensembles for our storm that we were supposed to get this Friday. They were in remarkable agreement 8-10 days out until it went kapoof. #2, that look on the Nam is pretty freakin decent, although it is probably namming people right now. SnowGoose made a good observation I was unaware of, in which the Nam received an upgrade in late 2017 and it seems to have corrected its over amplifying of our weather systems. Good note to have when looking at it. It was 2016 by the way. In September I think. I just realized I was off by a good year. Last winter the NAM, especially the first half of the winter did very well. It was awful in the 2nd half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This is hour 78 850 map off tonight's Nam. I chose it because it is a new run. You would think that with that temp gradient at 850 there would be a storm along it, but no....nada. Just unusual. And with the Low just west of Texas and what looks to be an ULL off the coast of Baja, we'd normally get excited about those too, but nada, again. I want something, anything, even a mere RECS to develop 10 days out that the majority of models stick with run after run so we can appease ourselves with the fact there is some predictability to this cursed hobby science... BTW - I'm desperate too, so threw the RECS out there for consideration, RECS = Rudimentary East Coast Storm. It would be far to greedy to ponder a SECS, pray for a MECS, dream about a SECS, or even mention the concept of a BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Marginal improvements on that NAM run, better than nothing, and of course there's that second window beyond NAM range, I have a perhaps unjustified optimism that something's gotta give, the cold seems a bit bottled up in the central plains to upper Great Lakes for this massive suppression scenario in the southeast, I think that can change in any given model run to game on and a fast evolution to a decent event. And if not, may I say that you (a) deserve some snow and (b) can have some of ours, we are up to the wazoo in it and more is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Marginal improvements on that NAM run, better than nothing, and of course there's that second window beyond NAM range, I have a perhaps unjustified optimism that something's gotta give, the cold seems a bit bottled up in the central plains to upper Great Lakes for this massive suppression scenario in the southeast, I think that can change in any given model run to game on and a fast evolution to a decent event. And if not, may I say that you (a) deserve some snow and (b) can have some of ours, we are up to the wazoo in it and more is on the way. Don't make me have to come up there and show you how to dig snow like a true Canadien. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 NAM is setting up to be north. Starting to look like the storm splits into two pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was 2016 by the way. In September I think. I just realized I was off by a good year. Last winter the NAM, especially the first half of the winter did very well. It was awful in the 2nd half The NAM upgrade was in late March 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 00z GGEM isn't going to look like 12z. Everything is further east like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: 00z GGEM isn't going to look like 12z. Everything is further east like the GFS. It was only a matter of time. It's 2 fluke MECS were lucky enough on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It was only a matter of time. It's 2 fluke MECS were lucky enough on their own. It's a pretty impressive fish storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Canadian looks like a December 2010 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 4 hours ago, stormy said: The Old Timers were right!! This winter reminds of the winter of 76-77. Brutal cold and dry. I received 15 inches of snow that winter compared to my normal 24 inches. The pattern must relax and it will in mid to late January. Fancy footwork can be done with the pattern that raises hope, but 90% of the time, that fancy footwork will fade away. We've been cold for 24 hours and you want to compare this winter to 76-77? Maybe we should wait about 6 weeks before we do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Just now, Amped said: It's a pretty impressive fish storm though. It still has the storm, but is much farther East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Canadian looks like a December 2010 redux. Would be snowfall in low-mid teens. Very high ratios, but I suspect if this were to actually happen like this, there were be a whole lotta dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This cold air mass sitting on top of us just does not produce snow. Yes, areas can be cold like NE and the Upper Midwest and produce. But this air mass is not only cold, but VERY dry. I can remember actually having some light snow showers with a similar type of cold, tried to do some cover, but literally evaporated into nothing. Very strange, but that is what cold and dry can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Negnao said: Canadian looks like a December 2010 redux. It's better than that, but not as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It still has the storm, but is much farther East The lead S/W does a 1/25/2000 ninja negative tilt on the CMC. GFS just rips it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 What a weird thing the GFS does in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Ggem has substantial snow in Hilton head and Savannah. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The lead S/W does a 1/25/2000 ninja negative tilt on the CMC. GFS just rips it apart. 1/25/2000 was a good storm. Remember it well! Local mets called for 2" and scrambled on the 11pm news. Many who were not up for 11pm news were shocked to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Hour 162 on the gfs is completely dry coast to coast outside of a few lake effect streamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 That Jet streak that develops over Idaho is what causes it to go negative. GFS doesn't have anything there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 My lips are chapped just looking at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Big noreasters almost always have a Canadian block or negative NAO. It would be hard to get the later threat going without these things, especially with such a progressive +PNA (Siberian High). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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