Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[RevWarReenactor]

37 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We'll do better once we get out of this "epic pattern" and back into something more normal. AKA upper 30s for highs and timing luck.

But what if we transition into a nice SE ridge, highs in the 40's and 50's and "needing the perfect track to keep the cold air in". No thanks. People who are rooting for a pattern change are rooting for the wrong thing. We know how marginal storms go for us.

This is our time, our moment. Tons of cold.....

and it appears to be going to complete waste.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I know, I know it's @ 222 hours ... but Jan 6 has a strong coastal signal. 

ETA: Ninja'd by Cobalt 

Actually after looking at the individual gefs members the signal is better then both the Jan 3 and 6 snapshots indicate. The gfs seems to be slower with the progression then the ggem. But several members start to pop east coast storms around the 4th in a similar setup to the ggem only slower. It doesn't look like two different threats. I only see one storm on any given member but they have timing differences. On some runs it's on the 3/4. Some as late as the 5/6. But if you take the period from January 4-6 the majority of members have a storm. 

That said we're at a range that it's hard to take seriously but that doesn't mean I don't like the trend. I just need to see a lot more before getting optimistic. 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

But what if we transition into a nice SE ridge, highs in the 40's and 50's and "needing the perfect track to keep the cold air in". No thanks. People who are rooting for a pattern change are rooting for the wrong thing. We know how marginal storms go for us.

This is our time, our moment. Tons of cold.....

and it appears to be going to complete waste.

An SE ridge and 50s isn't normal.

Ask the old timers and they will tell you we don't get snowstorms of note when the nation is in the icebox. The fact that the news is talking about people freezing to death in Ohio means we aren't getting a major snowstorm.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually after looking at the individual gefs members the signal is better then both the Jan 3 and 6 snapshots indicate. The gfs seems to be slower with the progression then the ggem. But several members start to pop east coast storms around the 4th in a similar setup to the ggem only slower. It doesn't look like two different threats. I only see one storm on any given run but they have timing differences. On some runs it's on the 3/4. Some as late as the 5/6. But if you take the period from January 4-6 the majority of members have a storm. 

That said we're at a range that it's hard to take seriously but that doesn't mean I don't like the trend. I just need to see a lot more before getting optimistic. 

I agree with you. Still too far away to jump to any conclusions, but hopefully this is light at the end of the tunnel.

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

An SE ridge and 50s isn't normal.

Ask the old timers and they will tell you we don't get snowstorms of note when the nation is in the icebox. The fact that the news is talking about people freezing to death in Ohio means we aren't getting a major snowstorm.

Preach.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

An SE ridge and 50s isn't normal.

Ask the old timers and they will tell you we don't get snowstorms of note when the nation is in the icebox. The fact that the news is talking about people freezing to death in Ohio means we aren't getting a major snowstorm.

Very true. Another reason why we get our biggest storms near the end of cold patterns

[stormy]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Preach.

The Old Timers were right!!  This winter reminds of the winter of 76-77. Brutal cold and dry. I received 15 inches of snow that winter compared to my normal 24 inches. The pattern must relax and it will in mid to late January. Fancy footwork can be done with the pattern that raises hope, but 90% of the time, that fancy footwork will fade away. 

[H2O]

Guys, you are falling for the models being right LR when their accuracy has been in question. 

 

Inside 5 days is the way to go this winter. Focus on small

[PDIII]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually after looking at the individual gefs members the signal is better then both the Jan 3 and 6 snapshots indicate. The gfs seems to be slower with the progression then the ggem. But several members start to pop east coast storms around the 4th in a similar setup to the ggem only slower. It doesn't look like two different threats. I only see one storm on any given member but they have timing differences. On some runs it's on the 3/4. Some as late as the 5/6. But if you take the period from January 4-6 the majority of members have a storm. 

That said we're at a range that it's hard to take seriously but that doesn't mean I don't like the trend. I just need to see a lot more before getting optimistic. 

Yeah.. the fact that the GFS or and its ensembles are increasing the threat for a day 6-8 snow storm means very little to me.  We have quite frankly seen the day 6-8 storm off and on (mostly on) for the last week and a half. I would just wait for something to pop inside of day 5 with run to run consistency before taking any individual run of the gfs seriously.  

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, you are falling for the models being right LR when their accuracy has been in question. 

 

Inside 5 days is the way to go this winter. Focus on small

Thanks Bob

[aldie 22]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Thanks Bob

I mean cobalt

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, you are falling for the models being right LR when their accuracy has been in question. 

 

Inside 5 days is the way to go this winter. Focus on small

Paging RR, RR to the Short Range discussions.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

As long as we have cold (which seems to be in abundance this year) we have a shot at some snow. But my expectations of anything more than nickel and dime events have been drastically lowered due to the issues I mentioned before.

Agreed. Right now there doesn't appear to be a high probability of a significant snowstorm in the near term, but the longer we have BN cold in place the more likely we are to see snow, even if its one or two lighter events, and my gut tells me something pleasantly unexpected may pop in the next 7-10 days. There are some hints in the guidance now. Plenty of moaning about too cold/dry or vodka cold= zero snow or high heating bills or whatever, but we are more likely to score something the longer we have the cold air around. Snow doesn't happen without cold. Personally I dont mind a week of freezing cold with brown and frozen ground, and ice forming on the ponds and tributaries. When it does snow every flake will count. It's freaking winter.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

But what if we transition into a nice SE ridge, highs in the 40's and 50's and "needing the perfect track to keep the cold air in". No thanks. People who are rooting for a pattern change are rooting for the wrong thing. We know how marginal storms go for us.

This is our time, our moment. Tons of cold.....

and it appears to be going to complete waste.

But if we keep the hammer down with the Arctic air... Everything will remained suppressed.  You have heard the saying too cold to snow.  

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Yeah.. the fact that the GFS or and its ensembles are increasing the threat for a day 6-8 snow storm means very little to me.  We have quite frankly seen the day 6-8 storm off and on (mostly on) for the last week and a half. I would just wait for something to pop inside of day 5 with run to run consistency before taking any individual run of the gfs seriously.  

I'm not taking it seriously, and said so in my post. But this is the long range thread so what am I supposed to talk about in here?  I agree long range is extremely low probability this year but I'm still going to look and this is the thread devoted to talking about it.  Do you think we should just close the long range thread this year?  And if so fair enough but then why be in here?  

[osfan24]

12 minutes ago, Interstate said:

But if we keep the hammer down with the Arctic air... Everything will remained suppressed.  You have heard the saying too cold to snow.  

Agree with this. There's a difference between having cold air around and struggling to get out of the 20's day after day.

[Bob Chill]

37 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, you are falling for the models being right LR when their accuracy has been in question. 

 

Inside 5 days is the way to go this winter. Focus on small

This. We might score something more substantial down the line but it's probably going to be a different or very different way than what we see now. It's nice to discuss things of course but setting specific "threat windows" beyond 5-6 days is ripe for heart break. 2013 through 15 had a lot of events but only a couple obvious beyond 5-6 days. I only remember one and that was the big event in Feb 14. These types of patterns are zipping along in fast flow. Discrete shortwaves can't be resolved beyond the med and short range. 

I also agree with Phineas. Giant cold blasts that push into the deep south correlate with low snowfall potential. Also, blasts of arctic cold with a progressive pattern like we're in probably correlate more with mixed and ice than snow. In the heart of cold season like we're in now, zonal or even a modest se ridge can do just fine. We just need hp in a good spot. That's it. Doesn't need to come from Santa's workshop or vodka country. 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, you are falling for the models being right LR when their accuracy has been in question. 

 

Inside 5 days is the way to go this winter. Focus on small

Again I don't see anyone (well maybe one) falling for anything. We're just discussing the long range in the long range thread. Again what should I be talking about in the long range thread?  

Sp you don't think I'm just being snarky let me lay out my thinking. I know and fully admit that long range is very low prob in any year and this year is even worse.   But its something I truly enjoy. The tracking. The chase. The challenge. Even the frequent failure and every once in a while the victory. It's not useless to me. I like doing it. And we can identify patterns and every once in a while a threat window. And once in a while they produced most they don't. I know that. But I get frustrated when every year at some point we have a fail in a long range threat and then there is a litany of "this is a waste of time" posts in the long range thread. 

Its not a waste of time to me because I enjoy it. And I don't mind anyone who thinks it is but then why come in here to crap all over people that want to discuss it?  I understand anyone thinking this is stupid but then just don't waste your time in the long range discussion. Because otherwise I come back to the same question I ask every time this happens and always goes unanswered..,What are we supposed to talk about in the long range thread???

[mitchnick]

Not snow related,  but it's been a long time since numbers like this on this link were over our back yards (ok, almost over as I'm sure they'd extend south.)

https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Again I don't see anyone (well maybe one) falling for anything. We're just discussing the long range in the long range thread. Again what should I be talking about in the long range thread?  

Sp you don't think I'm just being snarky let me lay out my thinking. I know and fully admit that long range is very low prob in any year and this year is even worse.   But its something I truly enjoy. The tracking. The chase. The challenge. Even the frequent failure and every once in a while the victory. It's not useless to me. I like doing it. And we can identify patterns and every once in a while a threat window. And once in a while they produced most they don't. I know that. But I get frustrated when every year at some point we have a fail in a long range threat and then there is a litany of "this is a waste of time" posts in the long range thread. 

Its not a waste of time to me because I enjoy it. And I don't mind anyone who thinks it is but then why come in here to crap all over people that want to discuss it?  I understand anyone thinking this is stupid but then just don't waste your time in the long range discussion. Because otherwise I come back to the same question I ask every time this happens and always goes unanswered..,What are we supposed to talk about in the long range thread???

I'm guessing you're talking about me, but I'm just pointing out potential. Nearly every storm looks good 7 days out. In this pattern, things are gonna change rapidly. 

[Bob Chill]

Psu, I think h20 is just saying to bite and expect something specific to hold on got 5+ days creates a lot of angst around here. For example, if all ops looked like the cmc today it still doesn't mean much and the odds of the storm hanging on through time is exponentially less than the storm vanishing or putting on a bunch of masks over a bunch of places. 

The pattern we got teased with pre-xmas was a good one for a long track. Instead we're in quick flow with shortwaves originating in the most data sparse area of the hemisphere. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Psu, I think h20 is just saying to bite and expect something specific to hold on. For example, if all ops looked like the cmc today it still doesn't mean much and the odds of the storm hanging on through time is exponentially less than the storm vanishing or putting on a bunch of masks over a bunch of places. 

The pattern we got teased with pre-xmas was a good one for a long track. Instead we're in quick flow with shortwaves originating in the most data sparse area of the hemisphere. 

Glen Burnie? 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Interstate said:

But if we keep the hammer down with the Arctic air... Everything will remained suppressed.  You have heard the saying too cold to snow.  

The primary problem is NS dominance- progressive, flat flow, and not much going on thats conducive to slowing/amplification. If its too cold to snow here, how the hell is it not too cold to snow in New England? I just dont get this concept. If we had a -NAO or a more amped PNA ridge, I doubt there would be talk of "too cold to snow".

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This. We might score something more substantial down the line but it's probably going to be a different or very different way than what we see now. It's nice to discuss things of course but setting specific "threat windows" beyond 5-6 days is ripe for heart break. 2013 through 15 had a lot of events but only a couple obvious beyond 5-6 days. I only remember one and that was the big event in Feb 14. These types of patterns are zipping along in fast flow. Discrete shortwaves can't be resolved beyond the med and short range. 

I also agree with Phineas. Giant cold blasts that push into the deep south correlate with low snowfall potential. Also, blasts of arctic cold with a progressive pattern like we're in probably correlate more with mixed and ice than snow. In the heart of cold season like we're in now, zonal or even a modest se ridge can do just fine. We just need hp in a good spot. That's it. Doesn't need to come from Santa's workshop or vodka country. 

I don't agree threat windows can't be identified. They just won't work out as often as in a less progressive pattern. But I do remember in 2014 being able to pick out times when a storm was more likely. The signals weren't as clear and the results never precise but I can remember feeling "something" was possible a week out a few times. But the details changed a lot. The fail this week of the stj was epic and has people spooked. I get it but that doesn't mean close up shop and ignore anything past our nose all year. Give it less weight then normal sure. 

The other point I agree with. A while ago I said we didn't want the uber cold looks. When things trended less arctic was when it looked snowier. Now things went arctic cold again with highs blasting down. That's not what we want. We need high pressure to be centered to our north, ideally banana'd in from the upper Midwest into New England. Not centered over Kansas. That's no good. Suppression City. Turn when they move out finally if they do so too far south the return flow warms us up before any threat can get close. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I'm guessing you're talking about me, but I'm just pointing out potential. Nearly every storm looks good 7 days out. In this pattern, things are gonna change rapidly. 

I like you. Your excitement reminds me of me when I was your age. But yea I was throwing a little shade your way. You get a bit worked up after every good run. But don't let my jaded skepticism or anyone else's ruin your fun. 

[knglover]

Would the intensity of the potential Saturday snow have any effect on any potential snow on the 3rd?  I understand taking what we can get when we can get it but would a jackpot of 3+ inches this weekend lower our chances of a 6+ jackpot next week? TIA for your insights.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Psu, I think h20 is just saying to bite and expect something specific to hold on got 5+ days creates a lot of angst around here. For example, if all ops looked like the cmc today it still doesn't mean much and the odds of the storm hanging on through time is exponentially less than the storm vanishing or putting on a bunch of masks over a bunch of places. 

The pattern we got teased with pre-xmas was a good one for a long track. Instead we're in quick flow with shortwaves originating in the most data sparse area of the hemisphere. 

But is anyone doing that?  Even when I preface my posts with "this is just for fun" and "not taking this seriously but" they still run into the "why are we taking it seriously" posts. I feel like they just don't want anyone talking about it. 

Besides that there are some generalities we can look for in the 5-10 day range to identify a better window. Not details. But for instance, the Jan 3-6 window, what I'm actually looking at are trends that the next reload of the trough might center itself further west. The further west we get that the more room for amplification we have here.  Worrying about the progression of a specific vort at that range is silly. But what I just said is a legit general pattern trend we can look for in trends to simply say "our chances are better there". 

[Casualbrain]

I think the odds of an epic MECS happening before February are about as high as me winning the Powerball tonight.

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But is anyone doing that?  Even when I preface my posts with "this is just for fun" and "not taking this seriously but" they still run into the "why are we taking it seriously" posts. I feel like they just don't want anyone talking about it. 

I think what I was trying to say came out wrong. Of course we'll discuss every opportunity. But unfortunately when we discuss it people start biting and then when things take a bad turn there's a pile on of negative, frustrated, or even angry posts from a lot of people and then everything goes off the rails and the thread ends up in the sewer. I'm not sure if this year is any different than other ones but it feels like it is  

The ironic thing is the pile ons of "long range is dumb and useless" posts come from the same group multiple times but reading and participating here is 100% optional. Lol. If you don't find any value in long range discussion and it causes you emotional unrest then my god just don't read or participate. Simple solution right? Heh

The possible jacked up coastal that's starting to gain some some support is a very low odds proposition. Especially in our region. If we starting seeing a lot of support I hope people realize that the low odds part doesn't go away no matter how many runs show it until we're in a reasonable range.  Like inside of 96 hours or so.  

[mitchnick]

Methinks the only way to feel confident this year is when the Euro and Gfs agree (which has yet to happen on a medium to long range threat) and there be solid support from their two ensembles, the Ukie and Canadian. Seriously.  It's just one of those years where nothing is coming easy on the modeling front.