aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Normally weenie are up bright and early....ahhhh youth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: EPS control says DC to Philly get screwed and NY and Boston score big. I'd take this, since snow is better than no snow Canadian has, funnily enough, been the most consistent with the storm. It strengthens it very early, resulting in a MECS. Best case scenario, basically. I wouldn't put much stock in it, since it's the Canadian Surface low pretty far east on the Canadian for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Surface low pretty far east on the Canadian for my liking. It tracks to the BM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Surface low pretty far east on the Canadian for my liking. Get that thing to tuck in off OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It tracks to the BM..... 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Get that thing to tuck in off OC That's what I'm talking about. What it does once to our north doesn't mean anything in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: That's what I'm talking about. What it does once to our north doesn't mean anything in these parts. If anything, I hope it does nothing up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: That's what I'm talking about. What does once to our north doesn't mean anything in these parts. Looks good to me for you guys..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You guys think the Euro was a tease...lol [ralph wiggum] the Navgem is a progressive model, I like where we sit at this range [/ralph wiggum] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Looks good to me for you guys..... Canadian is basically best case scenario currently. Could go any way, But the closest to optimistic/realistic would be 2-4" from the back edge with high ratios. Realistically, I don't know. Still a week out, but it's good some of the EPS members are snowier and show a storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Canadian is basically best case scenario currently. Could go any way, But the closest to optimistic/realistic would be 2-4" from the back edge with high ratios. Realistically, I don't know. Still a week out, but it's good some of the EPS members are snowier and show a storm signal I just hope the storm is still there at all by the 00z model suite....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I'd guess the New Years storm comes north. To be a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I'd guess the New Years storm comes north. To be a good event. Oh wow! I hope so. What are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The NAM at 84hr looks really good. There is nothing holding the blocks to the north, this is a pattern that usually trends NW with storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The NAM at 84hr looks really good. There is nothing holding the blocks to the north, this is a pattern that usually trends NW with storm. Well, the NW trend seems to be the bias this year, as seen with Dec 8-9. Similar with March 13-14 and Jan 6-7 of last year. Could happen, but I wouldn't count on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I love all the quotes. It's a really cold pattern that has held strong on models for a long time. This is usually about when it breaks, without something reloading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 GEPS has decent signal for storm on the 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Oh Canada! Canadian looks great to me, but agree with other posters that the low is too far east for us. That's a better track for the northern folks. We like a low tucked in off of OC as someone else mentioned because we are farther west than other big cities to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 23 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEPS has decent signal for storm on the 3rd Euro has the storm too far east for 2 runs, Gfs has the storm at least 4x in a row too far east, eps has the storm too far east, gefs has the solid precip off the coast too far east......tell me when to stop! We're going to have to wait a couple weeks for something else, it seems, unless the Saturday threat works out. Apparently, the angle of the cold really is all wrong for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Euro has the storm too far east for 2 runs, Gfs has the storm at least 4x in a row too far east, eps has the storm too far east, gefs has the solid precip off the coast too far east......tell me when to stop! We're going to have to wait a couple weeks for something it seems unless the Saturday threat works out. Apparently, the angle of the cold teally is all wrong for us. Very true. It's Canadian vs the world right now. Still, we're at the point where the storm could shift 250 miles either way, so I'm not gonna call the threat off until this weekend or Monday. Another reason to focus on Saturday threat, since it's much closer and more certain than something 1 week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 At least the storm on January 3 isn't forever away, wouldn't take a ton of adjustment to be interesting, and actually would have a significant impact. It's really the only thing worth tracking at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh Canada! Canadian looks great to me, but agree with other posters that the low is too far east for us. That's a better track for the northern folks. We like a low tucked in off of OC as someone else mentioned because we are farther west than other big cities to our north. It's a double barrel low structure. The upper level trough to the west is pulling on the system. It resolves this by forming a second low center that is tucked in and becomes the focus of the system. That's why the precip well inland. The gfs and euro don't do that they simply track the more ots low due north into New England. The ggem is hella complicated and not a stable progression to bank on from range but there is a reason it shows what it does from a snow perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 We'll do better once we get out of this "epic pattern" and back into something more normal. AKA upper 30s for highs and timing luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This was an awful run. PhineasC is right. Enough with the epic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This is going to be an epic winter, with plenty of potential for good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 18z GEFS is for sure wetter within day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Yep @Cobalt , wetter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Woah! Bigger GEFS signal for sure for next week's event. Basically caved with the GEPS. I think this may be just the GEFS being wonky, but the GEFS being wetter for next week as a whole is a welcome sight. Also, GEFS has less strong signal for the warm up. Looks 50/50. Same with EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I know, I know it's @ 222 hours ... but Jan 6 has a strong coastal signal. ETA: Ninja'd by Cobalt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Woah! Bigger GEFS signal for sure for next week's event. Basically caved with the GEPS. I think this may be just the GEFS being wonky, but the GEFS being wetter for next week as a whole is a welcome sight. Also, GEFS has less strong signal for the warm up. Looks 50/50. Same with EPS. Through day 10. Big jump in precip. Night and day compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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