psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's crazytalk but I gotta point something out here.... Whatever relax the ens have been showing d10-15 is starting to look like a push back in time (shocker). I'm sure it's coming at some point but right now ALL ops show a NASTY AK/EPO ridge coming back. Almost goundhog day style. I noticed it a few days ago but now it's coming on strong. Check this out: Euro: GFS: And GOOD GOD the CMC lol We've talked about this so it's not a revelation of any kind. It does fit into a lot our our collective thinking over the last 6 weeks. The AK/EPO ridge is the only thing that seems we can rely on in the long range. If the ops are right and the ens follow (they kinda are now but have a trough in the west is winning) then whatever "relax" after the 6th or so will be VERY short lived. Fun times in lala land. Think about it as an inverse. If we were torching now because of a craptastic North Pacific and looking at a long range prog that was ambiguous and kinda cold but showed that same craptastic Pacific pattern reloading we wouldn't feel very good. So by inverse until I see firm signs the epo dominated pattern is ending I'm not going to worry about uber long range torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Bob, PSU, etc all, looking at the maps above, verbatim would that trough be too far to the east for us? I know it's fantasy range and all that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 At least this look is significantly under 240 hours, so we should have a pretty good idea if it's real or not in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 heh, watch. Bob is right to say the GFS hasn't had the weekend thing right at all and I am certain that now it will find it starting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Being a snow lover in this area patience is needed in EVERY pattern. We have upside potential that many places lack. It's not the worst. But if you are a fan of consistent snow this is not the place to be. And thank you for the kind words. What I Iove about this area is the potential for a big one. We have more potential than other places in the US that are much colder. It doesnt happen often but when it happens it really happens...lol. usually we wait 6 to 8 years between each one. Except the magical 2009 / 2010 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Bob, PSU, etc all, looking at the maps above, verbatim would that trough be too far to the east for us? I know it's fantasy range and all that... It's just a snapshot in time. The 48 hours before those panels is where any threat would hypothetically be. And down the line would continue with shots of cold and as long as we keep getting cold refreshes we remain in a potential pattern instead of a shutout. I just wanted to point out the AK/EPO ridge @ d10. Ensembles hinted at a warm NA pattern d10-15. That won't happen as long as the east pac cooperates. We could easily warm up with a trough west/ridge east but it would be very temporary instead of a "new regime". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 My -3 to -5 January call looking good nina, fast flow, clippers and Arctic fronts are snowmakers this season and no coastal bombs and models especially bad in weak ninas-Matt R did a great post about that a year or so ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 that arctic HP on the Ukie is no joke. Damn thing wants to press on to the lower Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Worst gefs run in weeks. Bone dry through day 10. Then wet after but emphasis on the WET. It is what it is but bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Worst gefs run in weeks. Bone dry through day 10. Then wet after but emphasis on the WET. It is what it is but bad run. I feel like someone says this every few runs. I say wait for the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The storm day 8 on last nights run looked so much like the dec 2000 storm. Kinda depressing to look at even knowing it's not going to happen like that. For some reason I don't mind seeing things south or cutting as much. I can remember plenty of times those trend better. But when things start blowing up late and clipping New England in a Nina I can't remember any instance that it ended well. It's the worst look imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's just a snapshot in time. The 48 hours before those panels is where any threat would hypothetically be. And down the line would continue with shots of cold and as long as we keep getting cold refreshes we remain in a potential pattern instead of a shutout. I just wanted to point out the AK/EPO ridge @ d10. Ensembles hinted at a warm NA pattern d10-15. That won't happen as long as the east pac cooperates. We could easily warm up with a trough west/ridge east but it would be very temporary instead of a "new regime". Thanks. It's probably a lot to ask for, but sneaking in a moderate event between the incoming cold this evening and the one depicted above would be stellar. A couple of inches of snow with cold this deep would stick around and go a long way to improve the mood around here. And who knows? Maybe Saturday will deliver a minor event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: End of the GGEM run is hee-larious. Negative teens throughout our area, 35 below in Illinois, and below zero into Georgia and SC. WOW I just went and looked and that's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Hmmm.... Euro has the same vort in the west as the CMC @ 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hmmm.... Euro has the same vort in the west as the CMC @ 120. That look on the Euro is just bad looking though. Ggem is carved out much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This entire period has been derailed by a combination of wave separation problems, and the amplitude of the west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That look on the Euro is just bad looking though. Ggem is carved out much better. I agree there. Just pointing out that they both have the same little piece out west and a general trough in the east. Whenever you see 2 ops looking the same @ 120 hours it's worth noting regardless of how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I agree there. Just pointing out that they both have the same little piece out west and a general trough in the east. Whenever you see 2 ops looking the same @ 120 hours it's worth noting regardless of how it plays out. I definitely agree. Plus there is plenty of time to get it right. Should of kept my mouth shut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: This entire period has been derailed by a combination of wave separation problems, and the amplitude of the west coast ridge. Yea, the "out of sync for snow" has been very prevalent. We continue to see fairly wide swings as you get out to hr96 and then it magnifies from there. It's not a great setup. Not dancing around that but there is a way for it to work embedded in there and with the way things have been going, writing anything off (good or bad) beyond 3 days is proving to be the wrong way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I definitely agree. Plus there is plenty of time to get it right. Should of kept my mouth shut This is a bit convoluted but it's easy to see the way it could work. I'm not mad at this panel. Seeing "uphill" isobars @ h5 is never bad in the pattern were in. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That look on the Euro is just bad looking though. Ggem is carved out much better. Yeah it was a lot further west. Gave a lot more opportunity for ridging to build ahead of the system. Otherwise, that -anomaly along the SE coast is going to kill us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, the "out of sync for snow" has been very prevalent. We continue to see fairly wide swings as you get out to hr96 and then it magnifies from there. It's not a great setup. Not dancing around that but there is a way for it to work embedded in there and with the way things have been going, writing anything off (good or bad) beyond 3 days is proving to be the wrong way to go. As long as we have cold (which seems to be in abundance this year) we have a shot at some snow. But my expectations of anything more than nickel and dime events have been drastically lowered due to the issues I mentioned before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 looks like euro will be a miss east but there is snow close enough to make it intersting. Congrats Myrtle beach for being in bullseye 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Yeah it was a lot further west. Gave a lot more opportunity for ridging to build ahead of the system. Otherwise, that -anomaly along the SE coast is going to kill us. For better or worse (pick your poison), the lead time is in our favor for something to work out. It's complicated and that's always the first sign of trouble but we have something to watch other than our breath in cold air under sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 i think Jan 4 is really our only legit chance in the current pattern. it needs some help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, Ji said: i think Jan 4 is really our only legit chance in the current pattern. it needs some help The entire thing is just kinda popping up right now on the ops the last few runs. I don't think any op or ensemble is going to tell us much right now other than it remains hostile for a good event.....but not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 i think Jan 4 is really our only legit chance in the current pattern. it needs some helpCanadian shows best case scenario, and Euro and GFS are close but no cigar. Still too far away to make any conclusions . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The entire thing is just kinda popping up right now on the ops the last few runs. I don't think any op or ensemble is going to tell us much right now other than it remains hostile for a good event.....but not impossible we do well with impossible so im hopeful:). I just wish it wasnt the GGEM(who gives me average of 200 inches of snow a year) leading the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 52 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I feel like someone says this every few runs. I say wait for the next run Either it is the worst run in weeks or the best we've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, Ji said: we do well with impossible so im hopeful:). I just wish it wasnt the GGEM(who gives me average of 200 inches of snow a year) leading the way It's sorta bizarre how h5 evolves. It's like a tango between shortwaves. Ridge out west on the euro needs to move about 100 miles further west....and the 2 pieces need to play nice together...and....well....everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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