Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Buddy1987]

Do we want the confluence up in MN/WI to be stronger or weaker? With it being stronger, does it allow the energy to dig more or will it squash it?

[87storms]

slim pickings over the entire conus right now, not just us...

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ralph Wiggum

You're looking too far down the road. There are times when that works ok. I thought we were in one of those times during the lead up to Christmas. I think we ALL thought we were in a long range track mode but the atmosphere slapped us all back to reality. The next 10 days aren't figured out all so there is no sense trying to even consider what things will look like beyond that. 

The pattern and opportunities embedded within are what they are and only focusing inside of 5 days makes everything A LOT easier. Waiting for a "re-shuffle/re-load" could be a month long process. Heck, it could be an 11 month process if the switch flips for good. We're in the front side of a fairly long BN temp regime. Let's see what happens with that first right? 

 

Maybe we should adapt our approach for this year and split the discussion into a 120HR+ "Drunken Models: Random ideas for entertainment that will definitely NOT happen" and a "Sub-120HR" tracking thread which would be strictly moderated for sub-120 discussion only? 

Might save some poor souls from the reaper, so I'm guessing he wouldn't be in favor.....

[ers-wxman1]

GFS looks like another dry dumpster fire through 78. Energy crashes onshore the PAC NW with high nosing down. Suppression south likely once again.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS looks like another dry dumpster fire through 78. Energy crashes onshore the PAC NW with high nosing down. Suppression south likely once again.

Already posted in the weekend thread. CMC with back to back good runs. Nice event here. There would be zero complaints. GFS FINALLY shows a little random precip on Saturday. It's coming around. 

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Already posted in the weekend thread. CMC with back to back good runs. Nice event here. There would be zero complaints. GFS FINALLY shows a little random precip on Saturday. It's coming around. 

That’s pretty optimistic lol. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

That’s pretty optimistic lol. 

I'm just going with consensus. GFS is odd man out right and we're at 78 hours now. It's a small event that can go poof so I'm not hanging my hat on anything. There is some compelling evidence that the GFS is sucking an egg though. We'll know soon enough. 

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

GFS looks like another dry dumpster fire through 78. Energy crashes onshore the PAC NW with high nosing down. Suppression south likely once again.

Yea you called it! Looks like complete crap looking at h5 at the 102-108 mark. Just no dig whatsoever.

[tramadoc]

KECG right now. Temp at 33.4 and has been falling all morning from a high of 40 at 0730am. Moderate snow since about 9am.

 

 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

That’s pretty optimistic lol. 

Did someone serve you low-fat eggnog or something? You're frustration in this thread is thick. I understand but man...

[ers-wxman1]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm just going with consensus. GFS is odd man out right and we're at 78 hours now. It's a small event that can go poof so I'm not hanging my hat on anything. There is some compelling evidence that the GFS is sucking an egg though. We'll know soon enough. 

CMC is certainly holding on to it. Vort is pretty nice but lower levels are dry and not much moisture to tap with such a fast moving system. 

[Bob Chill]

CMC delivers a mini nuke. Less suppression (shocker). Something to casually watch as we pass time and finish shoveling from the weekend.

[usedtobe]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC delivers a mini nuke. Less suppression (shocker). Something to casually watch as we pass time and finish shoveling from the weekend.

I think the GGEM delivers about as well as the Bronco's offense with Osweiller. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I think the GGEM delivers about as well as the Bronco's offense with Osweiller. 

Ha! No doubt. I'm sticking to the <120hr rule. If something actually holds on and crosses that time frame then I'll bite. We'll see if the vort digging out west @ hr120 on the CMC holds in time. My guess something is lurking in this general time frame because we've been getting some looks like this. Ens have some small clusters of similar progressions. For now it's just mood boosting pure fantasy. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Ha! No doubt. I'm sticking to the <120hr rule. If something actually holds on and crosses that time frame then I'll bite. We'll see if the vort digging out west @ hr120 on the CMC holds in time. My guess something is lurking in this general time frame because we've been getting some looks like this. Ens have some small clusters of similar progressions. For now it's just mood boosting pure fantasy. 

I was about to post the same thing. Models have been hinting at this time for a while. Jan 3 -6 time frame. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I was about to post the same thing. Models have been hinting at this time for a while. Jan 3 -6 time frame. 

GFS gets there different way but on the same premise that there's more room to amplify than we currently think. Looking far down the road is proving to be silly this year. The only takeaway is that 2 ops are showing some room to boogie after the monster cold push starts moving out. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC delivers a mini nuke. Less suppression (shocker). Something to casually watch as we pass time and finish shoveling from the weekend.

Not saying I believe it at all but that's pretty amazing consistency from last run given the lead time and this pattern. Of course it can be consistently wrong. We just saw that. 

[aldie 22]

I just saw a squirrel trying to put acorns back ON a tree....thats a clear sign right there

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Not saying I believe it at all but that's pretty amazing consistency from last run given the lead time and this pattern. Of course it can be consistently wrong. We just saw that. 

Sticking to total generalities....there seems to be a trend away from squash city and a little room to get something going. Watch and wait is all we can do. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs hour 180 h5 not far from something 

Hour 181?

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS gets there different way but on the same premise that there's more room to amplify than we currently think. Looking far down the road is proving to be silly this year. The only takeaway is that 2 ops are showing some room to boogie after the monster cold push starts moving out. 

I was just going to post the 186hr vort  map. Looks pretty good to me. Now if we can get it to hold 28 more runs...lol 

But seriously it is a nice look. Too bad it will be gone in 6hrs.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS gets there different way but on the same premise that there's more room to amplify than we currently think. Looking far down the road is proving to be silly this year. The only takeaway is that 2 ops are showing some room to boogie after the monster cold push starts moving out. 

I think we're all seeing it. The "possible potential" in that window as the cold starts to relax. But given what just happened no one (understandably) wants to be the one to spread false optimism again. But it is showing up as the next window where there could be enough space to amplify something in the east, and there should be enough cold left as the trough lifts creating a window with a sorta bootleg 50/50 type feature. It's hinted at on all the guidance but the last threat was an epic fail on all the guidance so reluctance and skepticism is warranted. 

[WxUSAF]

End of the GGEM run is hee-larious. Negative teens throughout our area, 35 below in Illinois, and below zero into Georgia and SC.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we're all seeing it. The "possible potential" in that window as the cold starts to relax. But given what just happened no one (understandably) wants to be the one to spread false optimism again. But it is showing up as the next window where there could be enough space to amplify something in the east, and there should be enough cold left as the trough lifts creating a window with a sorta bootleg 50/50 type feature. It's hinted at on all the guidance but the last threat was an epic fail on all the guidance so reluctance and skepticism is warranted. 

It makes sense though as the cold begins to relax some. As you all have been preaching I think patience is much needed in this pattern but it could pay off down the line. 

Also thanks for all your insight through the years. As a long term reader and someone who just recently starting posting I have been able to learn a lot over the years from your posts.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

End of the GGEM run is hee-larious. Negative teens throughout our area, 35 below in Illinois, and below zero into Georgia and SC.

Let's do this!

[usedtobe]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ha! No doubt. I'm sticking to the <120hr rule. If something actually holds on and crosses that time frame then I'll bite. We'll see if the vort digging out west @ hr120 on the CMC holds in time. My guess something is lurking in this general time frame because we've been getting some looks like this. Ens have some small clusters of similar progressions. For now it's just mood boosting pure fantasy. 

I think the Euro was close on the 4th so it'snot totally without merit.

[psuhoffman]

For entertainment only....the gfs actually looks remarkably similar to the ggem for that range. If anything the h5 might be better on the gfs but the difference is the ggem has the surface system tuck in and pulls it due north up the coast as the upper level trough approaches. A mini capture. It does it with a double barrel low idea. The gfs does what it often does and throws too much into the lead wave and takes everything too far offshore before the h5 can catch up. It's actually where I would want it at that range. But again the issue analyzing this is the whole thing could be a mirage. On the up side this is two runs in a row the gfs and ggem held this general look. Do that for another couple days and get the euro on board and then I might get a little excited. I will say this setup is a more typical way for us to score so I'm not discounting it out of hand but given the volitility lately I can't put any stock in it yet. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

End of the GGEM run is hee-larious. Negative teens throughout our area, 35 below in Illinois, and below zero into Georgia and SC.

That's crazytalk but I gotta point something out here.... Whatever relax the ens have been showing d10-15 is starting to look like a push back in time (shocker). I'm sure it's coming at some point but right now ALL ops show a NASTY AK/EPO ridge coming back. Almost goundhog day style. I noticed it a few days ago but now it's coming on strong. Check this out:

Euro:

 

GFS:

 

 

And GOOD GOD the CMC lol

 

 

We've talked about this so it's not a revelation of any kind. It does fit into a lot our our collective thinking over the last 6 weeks. The AK/EPO ridge is the only thing that seems we can rely on in the long range. If the ops are right and the ens follow (they kinda are now but have a trough in the west is winning) then whatever "relax" after the 6th or so will be VERY short lived. Fun times in lala land. 

[PDIII]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ha! No doubt. I'm sticking to the <120hr rule. If something actually holds on and crosses that time frame then I'll bite. We'll see if the vort digging out west @ hr120 on the CMC holds in time. My guess something is lurking in this general time frame because we've been getting some looks like this. Ens have some small clusters of similar progressions. For now it's just mood boosting pure fantasy. 

I think you can set parental controls in chrome so as to not allow query params > 120 in the url. Might be worth looking in to

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It makes sense though as the cold begins to relax some. As you all have been preaching I think patience is much needed in this pattern but it could pay off down the line. 

Also thanks for all your insight through the years. As a long term reader and someone who just recently starting posting I have been able to learn a lot over the years from your posts.

Being a snow lover in this area patience is needed in EVERY pattern.  We have upside potential that many places lack. It's not the worst. But if you are a fan of consistent snow this is not the place to be.  And thank you for the kind words.