Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

So does that mean the Euro looks more like the GFS?

It still has more, if you want to call it that, than the Gfs for Saturday,  but it looks very close to the Gfs for the trailing system that was not on the Euro until last night. So to answer your question in short, Euro has moved toward the Gfs, not vica versa.

The Nam now gives us a dusting to an inch like the Euro now does fwiw.

[poolz1]

Tho the euro did bump the vort north this run, eps seems much more supportive of a light event for this weekend than yesterday's 12z run.

[WxUSAF]

Someone start a thread for Saturday. We’re only 72hrs out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I think it's fun to watch the models flounder though I'd appreciate an unexpected curveball in the receiving snow direction rather than always losing.

One thing I have noticed over the years is that during most Nina years guidance tends to have more issues in the LR handling the patterns. Im assuming this has to do with the more progressive look especially in the NS? I do not have precise verification scores for this, I wish I did, it is just something I have seen with more struggles LR. With that said, I have seen more of a tendency during Nina to show short and medium range 'busts' towards the better, ie, 'surprise' events that seemingly pop up out of nowhere within 84 hours or less lead time. Our events this season will probably be of this variety and not very well modeled in the longer range. That's just my opinion. Some season storms are well-modeled 7-10 days out (read: signal) and very well modeled within 120 hours. This is not that that sort of pattern and I correlate this to the enso phase and progressive NS.

 

[mappy]

So, no snow?

[Jandurin]

Not for the foreseeable future.

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, Snowman. said:

UKIE now supports the weekend event. 2-4"

 

All I can do is laugh at that map. It would certainly support the trend this winter. Better to the east. Nothing out here. My one take away from the models most recent runs is that the cold will be here for a good while. We have to score at some point with the temps that are being advertised.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

All I can do is laugh at that map. It would certainly support the trend this winter. Better to the east. Nothing out here. My one take away from the models most recent runs is that the cold will be here for a good while. We have to score at some point with the temps that are being advertised.

I laughed too when I saw that. The nam looks similar. December hasn't been kind to us westerners. I've had 2 dusting so far.

 

[osfan24]

The Ukie map looks almost identical to yesterday's Euro. The bullseye is just slightly farther south.

[Interstate]

Well if there is going to be a snow hole on the GFS... at least Boston and NY are in it too

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

6z GFS is brutal, completely wasted cold air follow by a warm up and rain.

 

 

 

It's not that bad. There are threats that wouldn't take much adjustment to produce and the warmup is barely a blip before a cold front comes through. I agree things are a bummer compared to the looks we were getting 4/5 days ago but it's not as bad as some are making it now either. Especially given how early in the season it is. Reserve this meltdown stuff for February after we actually do waste the next 2 weeks then are stuck in an epic endless torch and waiting for some mythical strat warm to save us and models keep teasing day 15 -nao's that never materialize. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's not that bad. There are threats that wouldn't take much adjustment to produce and the warmup is barely a blip before a cold front comes through. I agree things are a bummer compared to the looks we were getting 4/5 days ago but it's not as bad as some are making it now either. Especially given how early in the season it is. Reserve this meltdown stuff for February after we actually do waste the next 2 weeks then are stuck in an epic endless torch and waiting for some mythical strat warm to save us and models keep teasing day 15 -nao's that never materialize. 

Patience is definitely something folks will need. Psu, would you agree our best shot happens when the pattern relaxes a little or reloads? I agree some adjustments could produce but Im not sure that without some sort of ridging in the ATL we actually see those necessary adjustments. As many have alluded to, this is an obscenely cold duration pattern we are in. I would definitely lean against anyone thinking there is no hope. I disagree with that sentiment. I just think patience is critical right now. We wont 'waste' this cold because even if it lasts 10 days and it is dry overall because without it when the pattern relaxes we would be screwed. Maybe we can even time a transient ATL ridge properly during this BN temp spell. Good things will happen eventually.....patience.

[RevWarReenactor]

Thanks. This is kind of banter but I think part of the impatience, down in the I-95 Baltimore/DC area is I believe it has been almost 2 years since we've had a legit snowstorm, outside of the Blizzard, I think you have to go back 3 years. I think we may have had an active year prior to that, but before that, it had also been about 2-3 years. Outside of the Blizzard, things have not gone our way in the mid atlantic.

[Bob Chill]

@h20 Totally agree that the euro has moved more towards a gfs h5 look d5+ but that isn't where my criticism was coming from. The GFS was totally blowing inside of d5 and not just one run. Many runs. And it's still catching up on the weekend deal. I take issue with that. Completely skipping a shortwave doing a long track and manufacturing a fantasy storm in the middle of the country that has no support from any guidance. If it ends up being a squashed shortwave on the gulf coast then I guess the GFS saw that first but I've been focused on shorter range stuff and the GFS has clearly been struggling there. 

[clskinsfan]

I have to give some kudo's the RGEM again. This little event today was picked up very well by the model. It has been really good this year so far.

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This pattern seems terrible for snow, but honestly, more frustrating than anything is how awful the models are. They don't even have the general idea correct. It makes trying to track these things no fun because most of the time, you aren't even tracking something real, especially when all the models are spitting out different solutions.

I know this isn't the first time myself or several others have said it but this is not the year for long lead specific threat tracking.  We weren't kidding. Progressive patterns with a string of descreet vorts flying across in the northern stream is going to drive all the guidance crazy. It's not the type of pattern they can see clearly. 

[Bob Chill]

@Ralph Wiggum

You're looking too far down the road. There are times when that works ok. I thought we were in one of those times during the lead up to Christmas. I think we ALL thought we were in a long range track mode but the atmosphere slapped us all back to reality. The next 10 days aren't figured out all so there is no sense trying to even consider what things will look like beyond that. 

The pattern and opportunities embedded within are what they are and only focusing inside of 5 days makes everything A LOT easier. Waiting for a "re-shuffle/re-load" could be a month long process. Heck, it could be an 11 month process if the switch flips for good. We're in the front side of a fairly long BN temp regime. Let's see what happens with that first right? 

[Buddy1987]

End of the run and the Nam spits out another very similar scenario to the depiction of what the GFS shows at the same time range. Better yet I kind of like the way the confluence is setting up over MN/WI in that time frame. Would allow the storm to continue to dig on down. This imo is far from over and the Euro has made it even more of a possibility that something at least decent can come to fruition. 

[H2O]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@h20 Totally agree that the euro has moved more towards a gfs h5 look d5+ but that isn't where my criticism was coming from. The GFS was totally blowing inside of d5 and not just one run. Many runs. And it's still catching up on the weekend deal. I take issue with that. Completely skipping a shortwave doing a long track and manufacturing a fantasy storm in the middle of the country that has no support from any guidance. If it ends up being a squashed shortwave on the gulf coast then I guess the GFS saw that first but I've been focused on shorter range stuff and the GFS has clearly been struggling there. 

@Bob Chill You are my boy.  Not calling you out at all for picking one model over another.  I agree that the GFS has been horrid even in the short term as well the last few weeks.  None of the models has instilled any confidence that what they show will be right.  Even the pre-Xmas front was an evolving mess right up to the day it was progged to move into the area.

I've been noticing of late that the GFS often looks like the Euro a day later and vice versa.  Its really been amazing to see the run to run variances and trends that ultimately turn out not correct as shown a few days prior.  Its def increased the amount of frustration in being able to pick one or the other and try to use that as a benchmark.  Thats why I've shortened up how far out I care to look.  84hr and beyond is a total guess.

 

Ride the NAM to glory.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

Thats why I've shortened up how far out I care to look.  84hr and beyond is a total guess.

 

Ride the NAM to glory.

We are on the exact same page. As soon as unanimous guidance @ d7 proved to be unanimously wrong (and not just a little wrong. lol) I trimmed back forward thinking. It's funny now when I glance at the overnight ens runs. I see the mean h5 plots d7+ and think "we'll see about that in a week" and move on. 

Unsurprisingly the euro bumped the best dynamics with the weekend shortwave north but on the flip side, the ens run is picking up the event pretty well now and it was pretty weak @ 12z yesterday. Once we get to 48 hours or so we should know some specifics about track. In general  this stuff favors north of us in any year but there's no reason to hug anything other than a chance @ accum snow this weekend. GFS should finally start showing some qpf in the east somewhere today. Might not be 12z but I would guess by 0z tonight the GFS will reluctantly come aboard. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@h20 Totally agree that the euro has moved more towards a gfs h5 look d5+ but that isn't where my criticism was coming from. The GFS was totally blowing inside of d5 and not just one run. Many runs. And it's still catching up on the weekend deal. I take issue with that. Completely skipping a shortwave doing a long track and manufacturing a fantasy storm in the middle of the country that has no support from any guidance. If it ends up being a squashed shortwave on the gulf coast then I guess the GFS saw that first but I've been focused on shorter range stuff and the GFS has clearly been struggling there. 

I guess this is where perceptions come into play. Saturday hasn't happened yet, so it's probably a waste of time to critique any of the models.  But from my point of view,  if Saturday is a bust, as in nothing to 1/2", did the model that called for nothing 4 days out do a better job of forecasting actual weather over the models that called for 2-4"? I say it did, but that's perception/opinion that's neither right or wrong. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I guess this is where perceptions come into play. Saturday hasn't happened yet, so it's probably a waste of time to critique any of the models.  But from my point of view,  if Saturday is a bust, as in nothing to 1/2", did the model that called for nothing 4 days out do a better job of forecasting actual weather over the models that called for 2-4"? I say it did, but that's perception/opinion that's neither right or wrong. 

Euro has shown the pac shortwave tracking the country and dropping precip somewhere in the east for 5 straight runs and the GFS hasn't even hinted at it for 10 straight runs. Granted the GFS runs twice as often but I'm not specifically talking about my yard on this. I'm talking about sensible wx in the east. If anyone gets a few inches anywhere from VA to ME on Sat-Sun then the euro destroyed the gfs in this case. I don't think that's debatable. 

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro has shown the pac shortwave tracking the country and dropping precip somewhere in the east for 5 straight runs and the GFS hasn't even hinted at it for 10 straight runs. Granted the GFS runs twice as often but I'm not specifically talking about my yard on this. I'm talking about sensible wx in the east. If anyone gets a few inches anywhere from VA to ME on Sat-Sun then the euro destroyed the gfs in this case. I don't think that's debatable. 

Yes.  It's not just who gets snow, it's who predicts the general track of actual real storms better.  Not just specifying snowfall etc.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Jandurin said:

Yes.  It's not just who gets snow, it's who predicts the general track of actual real storms better.  Not just specifying snowfall etc.

That's always how I think on this stuff. It's not just about my yard. It's always about what model did the best in general. The whole thing could go poof and I'll be the first to admit that the GFS nailed it. Ops are most useful inside of 5 days. Grading them beyond that is unfair because that's now how they are designed to be used. The GFS does win sometimes. No doubt there. Unless this specific shortwave goes poof then it's pretty obvious that the GFS took a dump inside of the range it's supposed to be skillful. 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro has shown the pac shortwave tracking the country and dropping precip somewhere in the east for 5 straight runs and the GFS hasn't even hinted at it for 10 straight runs. Granted the GFS runs twice as often but I'm not specifically talking about my yard on this. I'm talking about sensible wx in the east. If anyone gets a few inches anywhere from VA to ME on Sat-Sun then the euro destroyed the gfs in this case. I don't think that's debatable. 

It called for 3-4" yesterday and 1" last night in our back yards. It has sucked equally,  albeit differently. But that's tge best I can say at th I s point and I can't see how that's debatable either. Lol

[isohume]

11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a chance....but I hope it's right....

 

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 For now it's just hope on the horizon. 

 

10 hours ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I’m holding out hope as well. 

 

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

For a little hope, let's look to the CFS2. 

 

57 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 I would definitely lean against anyone thinking there is no hope.

 

Hope is a dangerous thing. - Red 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It called for 3-4" yesterday and 1" last night in our back yards. It has sucked equally,  albeit differently. But that's tge best I can say at th I s point and I can't see how that's debatable either. Lol

Will you at least admit that the GFS hasn't picked up on any shortwave at all passing through the east this weekend?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Will you at least admit that the GFS hasn't picked up on any shortwave at all passing through the east this weekend?

Apparently not. But I think I have realized the real problem here. I'm using the old "Weenie Model Olympic Rules" that penalizes heavily for over forecasting snow. The only way the Euro can win now is for us to get as much or more than originally forcasted. Lol

[ers-wxman1]

20 minutes ago, isohume said:

 

 

 

 

 

Hope is a dangerous thing. - Red 

The pattern is dead in the water. Can try and hope a little to keep from flatlining into spring. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not that bad. There are threats that wouldn't take much adjustment to produce and the warmup is barely a blip before a cold front comes through. I agree things are a bummer compared to the looks we were getting 4/5 days ago but it's not as bad as some are making it now either. Especially given how early in the season it is. Reserve this meltdown stuff for February after we actually do waste the next 2 weeks then are stuck in an epic endless torch and waiting for some mythical strat warm to save us and models keep teasing day 15 -nao's that never materialize. 

Patience is definitely something folks will need. Psu, would you agree our best shot happens when the pattern relaxes a little or reloads? I agree some adjustments could produce but Im not sure that without some sort of ridging in the ATL we actually see those necessary adjustments. As many have alluded to, this is an obscenely cold duration pattern we are in. I would definitely lean against anyone thinking there is no hope. I disagree with that sentiment. I just think patience is critical right now. We wont 'waste' this cold because even if it lasts 10 days and it is dry overall because without it when the pattern relaxes we would be screwed. Maybe we can even time a transient ATL ridge properly during this BN temp spell. Good things will happen eventually.....patience.

No I'm with bob waiting for a reshuffle is premature. Our best bet is one of two options. If the euro suite is right about dumping the core of the trough/cold into the northeast then we need to root for one of these northern stream vorts to be energetic enough and make a good pass to give us a small to moderate event. If the gfs is right about dumping the next reload of cold into the central US then we can possibly get something to dig and amplify up the east coast. I know the gfs is suppressed but that's normal and the euro shows a completely different progression although it took a step towards the gfs last night. Even so the euro has managed a few long range chances run to run. Specifics will be wrong but throwing out this whole pattern now is silly. There have been plenty of times things looked dry and something popped up inside 100 hours.