Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Hard to tell, but is that dark green bullseye in DC 0.2" or 0.15" of precip? Not that it matters at this point

Looks like .2"-.25" contour.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Hard to tell, but is that dark green bullseye in DC 0.2" or 0.15" of precip? Not that it matters at this point

.25 square over top of DC. Not much wiggle room. It's a perfect pass for our area. Would be nice to see the coverage increase as we move forward. Something like the .1 contour covering all of md and at least half of va would work.

If it holds inside of hr72 this is the type of event that can get better as leads shorten. I think it has to do with initializing while the shortwave is over land. Better data ingest. All depends on how it looks as it moves through the northern rockies. 

Eta: I'm not talking about sampling and that old saying. I mean if the shortwave is stronger over land than what we are seeing. If it moves through the Rockies weak as a kitten it won't matter. Lol

[Jebman]

I'd love to see a .35 over NW Washington DC.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

.25 square over top of DC. Not much wiggle room. It's a perfect pass for our area. Would be nice to see the coverage increase as we move forward. Something like the .1 contour covering all of md and at least half of va would work.

If it holds inside of hr72 this is the type of event that can get better as leads shorten. I think it has to do with initializing while the shortwave is over land. Better data ingest. All depends on how it looks as it moves through the northern rockies. 

Eta: I'm not talking about sampling and that old saying. I mean if the shortwave is stronger over land than what we are seeing. If it moves through the Rockies weak as a kitten it won't matter. Lol

A region-wide 1"+ event would greatly increase spirits of everybody on this board. 

[yoda]

Nice event on the UKIE looks like... and Bob covered everything else

[Yeoman]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

A region-wide 1"+ event would greatly increase spirits of everybody on this board. 

Sounds reasonable

[MillvilleWx]

Just a heads up for anyone looking for the Euro. There's a power outage at ECMWF, so the 0z product will be delayed until the issue is resolved. This might be the weather gods way of saying get some sleep. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just a heads up for anyone looking for the Euro. There's a power outage at ECMWF, so the 0z product will be delayed until the issue is resolved. This might be the weather gods way of saying get some sleep. 

Makes sense. Is the HRRR associated with that by any chance? It's pretty delayed as well

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Makes sense. Is the HRRR associated with that by any chance? It's pretty delayed as well

Nope. HRRR is an American product. I have it loading the 5z run on WeatherBell at this time. Just the Euro will have issues until the problem is resolved. 

[Cobalt]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Nope. HRRR is an American product. I have it loading the 5z run on WeatherBell at this time. Just the Euro will have issues until the problem is resolved. 

Ok, then that's just on TT

[Roger Smith]

This would be ironic, there is heavy snow near Oxford and Reading, England, (mostly to northwest) that might account for the power failure -- the ECM knocked off line by a snowstorm. 

[Jebman]

That outage broke my heart, I love the play by play and all the tracking.

One thing you learn in all of this, is patience.

Look at all that moisture just to our south. I would have sold my soul and given all that I have --- Just to have that moisture in all this cold air.

Don't even think about it, "reaper". I still believe in this winter, BIG-TIME. We are going to get demolished by snow.

[Wonderdog]

27 minutes ago, Jebman said:

That outage broke my heart, I love the play by play and all the tracking.

One thing you learn in all of this, is patience.

Look at all that moisture just to our south. I would have sold my soul and given all that I have --- Just to have that moisture in all this cold air.

Don't even think about it, "reaper". I still believe in this winter, BIG-TIME. We are going to get demolished by snow.

That moisture to our south looks a lot different at 6z than it did at 0z. It looks a lot like it did a couple of days ago. Maybe a couple of more runs of the GFS might give us a surprise on New Years.

[PDIII]

This look is persistent on the GFS.  The progressive flow in the jet stream is driving any disturbance into the GOM and then out to sea.  If we could get a little high pressure to develop in the upper levels to our north and east.. our chance would improve dramatically.  The good news is that this look will eventually break down.  

 

[Buddy1987]

I do agree guys. Woke up this morning and 6z GFS looks a lot closer to the 18z then the 00z 

[mitchnick]

Lol Euro shifts heaviest qpf with the Saturday tease north leaving an inch if we're lucky. And that'll be gone by 12z no doubt. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol Euro shifts heaviest qpf with the Saturday tease north leaving an inch if we're lucky. And that'll be gone by 12z no doubt. 

Vort pass goes from nicely positioned just underneath to weaker and north. Of course it comes together decently for SNE.

[aldie 22]

Whew...now we can relax

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Vort pass goes from nicely positioned just underneath to weaker and north. Of course it comes together decently for SNE.

Yeah,  and then does with the next one what the Gfs has been showing.  In the end,  the Euro and reality will be a whole lot closer to the Gfs than the Euro but will be forgotten by many, but not me.

[H2O]

For all those that bow down to the Euro all the time and say its right and models move to it.  Take a look at how different it is from 12z to 0z at 150hr.  The GFS isn't always out to lunch.

0z

 

12z yesterday

don't tell me this is a great consistent time for any model.  GFS and Euro have been on their own at times and then come back to each other close in.  GFS has been right just as much as the Euro.

[H2O]

And with the 0z runs both the Euro and GFS are lockstep until about 120hr. After that is when they split and the Euro tries to pop a low thats not as far S as the GFS but congrats ATL.

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

And with the 0z runs both the Euro and GFS are lockstep until about 120hr. After that is when they split and the Euro tries to pop a low thats not as far S as the GFS but congrats ATL.

What's the matter you out of milk this morning?

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What's the matter you out of milk this morning?

I have to work.  Its lonely here

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have to work.  Its lonely here

Are you ready for all of those pipes exploding from continuous 31 degree weather?

[RevWarReenactor]

6z GFS is brutal, completely wasted cold air follow by a warm up and rain.

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z GFS is brutal, completely wasted cold air follow by a warm up and rain.
 
 
 

Sounds about right. Im actually pulling for the pattern relax/reload to happen asap. My heart wants this current pattern to produce but when you look at a progressive pattern overwhelmed with cold, it is very hard to produce something outside of minor events. I wont say we cant move towards something more significant but until we see some sort of blocking on the ATL side, we are stuck in a cold/dry regime with a broad mean trof that extends too far East in spacing. You can see this on satellite with weak stj disturbances suppressed way South then moving away. Need a ridge to back the flow or adjust mean trof West a bit. There is no way to sugarcoat that. I disagree with many that say this HAS to produce because there is disturbance after disturbance. It doesn't HAVE to do anything. Its more of a loaded gun that may potentially go off during the relax though it could just as well backfire in our faces. I realize I will get chastised for being a realist and I realize the reaper is watching me, but believe me, Im not being downer intentionally. We WILL get our snow, I just dont think this BN temp pattern we just entered will be our time. Patience.

[mitchnick]

For a little hope, let's look to the CFS2.  What did it show for December at the end of November/early December? Not bad. BN temps and precip.  What's it showing for January and February?  I'll give you the links. In short,  AN precip in January with a signature of Miller A's and way AN precip in February.  Temps for January are average to a little below while February temps are AN, but not by much. The positive is that the AN precip for both January and February have been showing up since November.  That really is an encouraging sign imho. Here are the links with monthly temps on top and precip on the bottom.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html

 

 

[osfan24]

This pattern seems terrible for snow, but honestly, more frustrating than anything is how awful the models are. They don't even have the general idea correct. It makes trying to track these things no fun because most of the time, you aren't even tracking something real, especially when all the models are spitting out different solutions.

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol Euro shifts heaviest qpf with the Saturday tease north leaving an inch if we're lucky. And that'll be gone by 12z no doubt. 

So does that mean the Euro looks more like the GFS?

[Jandurin]

I think it's fun to watch the models flounder though I'd appreciate an unexpected curveball in the receiving snow direction rather than always losing.