Amped Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 GFS stomped the crap out of the weekend event. Congrats Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 GFS has crushed the New Years storm. No question. Suppressed into the GOM to never return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Ski Panama City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Well the GFS is consistent with the high in the central part of the country. It is in the exact same place as the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: GFS stomped the crap out of the weekend event. Congrats Florida. Yep, gotta love it when the deep south keeps showing frozen and all we get is dry/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS stomped the crap out of the weekend event. Congrats Florida. Gfs is dead to me. I'm drinking molsen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 CMC has a nice coastal early next week. Something to keep an eye on. Ninja'd by Bob again. What else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Off to sleep, not worth staying up any longer.Back to work in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: CMC has a nice coastal early next week. Something to keep an eye on. It's convoluted. It's like a giant inverted trough with the northern stream tugging on the storm off the coast. Not saying it's impossible but no way a model nails something like that 7 days out. Not a chance....but I hope it's right....heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The 240hr storm is stalled off the CA coast this run. Not coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 GFS just had that costal less than 4 runs ago. Still something to watch. If we pray to the weather gods enough the models will pull a Dec 8-9 and trend the storm NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Did anyone really expect the gfs to hold? There wasn't a hint of support from any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Did anyone really expect the gfs to hold? There wasn't a hint of support from any other model. It's every model for itself tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro will fold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Huge fantasy storm for new england incoming, looks like January 2015 at 204hrs. Will not get a hold of the coastal front fast enough for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Euro will fold tonight. Fold in what? That weekend northern stream vort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs is dead to me. I'm drinking molsen tonight. Did you see the h5 on the gfs. It's showing potential there too. Even if it's all fubar at the surface. just have to wait and see if it picks up support and holds to become a legit threat. For now it's just hope on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Fold in what? That weekend northern stream vort? I believe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I believe so It might but the cmc already looks very similar. Still at the edge of higher confidence range. I think it will hold but probably move the stripe around a little. Are you thinking the euro moved towards the gfs then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It might but the cmc already looks very similar. Still at the edge of higher confidence range. I think it will hold but probably move the stripe around a little. Are you thinking the euro moved towards the gfs then? I think the pattern overall is just too suppressed, confluent, and dry. I’m hoping for the best and the vort remains, but I’m less than optimistic given the trends we have been seeing day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Huge fantasy storm for new england incoming, looks like January 2015 at 204hrs. Will not get a hold of the coastal front fast enough for us. I don't care about details at that range. I like the h5 look. Problem is in this kind of pattern it will be different in 6 hours. But the more good looks pop up the more likely it is we get lucky probably. But if we actually got this look I would take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Did you see the h5 on the gfs. It's showing potential there too. Even if it's all fubar at the surface. just have to wait and see if it picks up support and holds to become a legit threat. For now it's just hope on the horizon. I'm not biting on a single anything outside of 5 days right now. I already think the gfs is very wrong starting at hr84. The d8+ deal might be legit but I expect a continuation of huge swings with ops beyond d5. I'm just hoping the weekend deal works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 gotta wonder how accurate that high depiction is. if it's even a little less, i would imagine this could trend further north again...if there is actually a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I think the pattern overall is just too suppressed, confluent, and dry. I’m hoping for the best and the vort remains, but I’m less than optimistic given the trends we have been seeing day to day. At the very least it's held for a couple runs and is showing up on more than 1 model. That's pretty good considering the volatility we've been seeing. I agree that depth of cold in the med range will verify at a lesser magnitude. The thorn in the side is no sign of the southern stream at all. We've had a lot of northern stream activity in recent years. It can produce but moderate events are top end most of the time. I just want 2.3" before the year is out. I'm expecting it more than worried it won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not biting on a single anything outside of 5 days right now. I already think the gfs is very wrong starting at hr84. The d8+ deal might be legit but I expect a continuation of huge swings with ops beyond d5. I'm just hoping the weekend deal works out. Yea like I said above the look will change every 6 hours. And the gfs seems to be a mess right now. But I would rather see more amplified runs vs less and seeing two models tonight want to throw a more favorable setup to get something room to breath near us isn't a bad thing. The more runs like that we see in general our odds are better to score even if the details on any given run are likely to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Would not throw in the towel on weekend storm yet, both GFS and NAM have decent energy moving into CO from WA (I call this the marijuana express) and the flow ahead is rather featureless, would not take much to get a low to form in OK or TX on 29th or 30th and then phase with the ambiguous 500-mb reflection over Ohio and PA. Whether it amounts to a real storm or just a few inches of snow, I think something is still going to happen there. As to the Jan 3-4 event on CMC, that is not so late that I would call it a new development, more of a delayed response to this same energy peak. Loads of room for that depiction to improve as it seems to be responding to retrogression (note how the coastal heads almost due north into southern New England, this is totally new model thinking right or wrong). Which got me thinking, if this pattern begins a slow retrogression over next 48h, it could reopen the weekend coastal storm window all the way. Anyway, it is still 120 hours to Jan 1 00z and 144 to Jan 2 00z, model errors at that time range are sometimes considerable. The life in this current jet streak feature (a consistent 0.2 to 0.5 inch snow trail from NE to s OH) may be a signal that the cold air is not just going to glide all the way to the GOM without resistance, after all, there's no snow pack in the Gulf states and the flow remains almost westerly most of the next 72h, why should there not be a frontal zone forming up something like LIT-BNA? I would say 30% chance significant storm 31st to 2nd and 50-50 if we include 3rd-4th. (that's for MidAtl, higher probs northeast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At the very least it's held for a couple runs and is showing up on more than 1 model. That's pretty good considering the volatility we've been seeing. I agree that depth of cold in the med range will verify at a lesser magnitude. The thorn in the side is no sign of the southern stream at all. We've had a lot of northern stream activity in recent years. It can produce but moderate events are top end most of the time. I just want 2.3" before the year is out. I'm expecting it more than worried it won't happen I’m holding out hope as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 UKIE now supports the weekend event. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowman. said: UKIE now supports the weekend event. 2-4" Hard to tell, but is that dark green bullseye in DC 0.2" or 0.15" of precip? Not that it matters at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 .25” DC bullseye on UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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