BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I agree with you. High won't verify, but the event shown probably won't either. We've gotta hope for some quick events that surprise us like this Wednesday event The GFS has nothing east of 81...maybe 15...but nothing east of there. Maybe way up in MD. I don't think this will do anything in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Hour 168-174 tells a tale. That is the driest most devoid of precip look I have ever seen in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Some gulf effect snow, for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Generates Fake Snow (GFS) This run must be an error cause it didn't generate any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 240's looking epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Casualbrain said: 240's looking epic. It typically does, but the window of Jan 4th-6th should for sure be looked at. Could be our big one, but could be nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, Amped said: This run must be an error cause it didn't generate any. Sorry I wasn't being patient. 240hr, perfect timing cutoff. Too bad it truncates, cause that will go nuts after H5 closes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: 240's looking epic. Doesn't phase in time but that doesn't matter since it's not real anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 You can pretty much take what the GFS shows in the extended and expect the opposite to happen. It’s over amped then reverts to reality of the ongoing La Niña pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Clobbers SNE for 36hrs. 500mb map looked exactly like 4/1/1997 so not a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I looked at the total snowfall at 240. That has convinced me of one thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You can pretty much take what the GFS shows in the extended and expect the opposite to happen. It’s over amped then reverts to reality of the ongoing La Niña pattern. i heard the gefs weren't so great either so with all the variation during that time period maybe this is just one of those off runs...or maybe we're just in a squash pattern. either way, clippers are notorious for being small scale annoyances to track especially being on the southern side of where they usually end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 LWX basically saying "it might snow, it might not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, PDIII said: This is quite possibly the worst period of model watching since I started this god forsaken hobby. I cannot remember a time when there has been so many teases that over time simply vanish in to thin air. This is simply agonizing. You haven't been doing this very long or don't have a good memory. We've already had 3 snow events this month and have "suffered" through about a week of bad times. Were you here during the stretch from Feb 2011 all the way through March 2013? That stretch was about 14 billion magnitudes worse than this one. This year is actually a GOOD year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I’m dumping all the meltdown posts and any that reply to them. Take it elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You haven't been doing this very long or don't have a good memory. We've already had 3 snow events this month and have "suffered" through about a week of bad times. We're you here during the stretch from Feb 2011 all the way through March 2013? That stretch was about 14 billion magnitudes worse than this one. This year is actually a GOOD year. Yeah, I agree with you. I was young and I can agree that that was an agonizing period. Even March 2013 sucked in it's own way. We have had 3 of our last 4 winters be above average, with 2 of those colder than average. We're already on pace for a colder than average December, and for some of us, a snowier than average December. We're not even in our peak climo for snowfall (which I believe is late Jan-Mid Feb). We will have plenty of storm chances, and I think we are just getting started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You haven't been doing this very long or don't have a good memory. We've already had 3 snow events this month and have "suffered" through about a week of bad times. We're you here during the stretch from Feb 2011 all the way through March 2013? That stretch was about 14 billion magnitudes worse than this one. This year is actually a GOOD year. Not to mention that it’s at least cold. For the past I don’t know how many winters we’ve had unseasonably warm temps through December and chased a pattern change in mid January that never materialized until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You haven't been doing this very long or don't have a good memory. We've already had 3 snow events this month and have "suffered" through about a week of bad times. Were you here during the stretch from Feb 2011 all the way through March 2013? That stretch was about 14 billion magnitudes worse than this one. This year is actually a GOOD year. Yeah.. I was around for it... I remember the dca 2 inch streak.. but I am pretty sure that it was pretty obvious we weren't getting anything back then.. and we could All just tune out. But this is different.. I feel like we are actually getting trolled by the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, PDIII said: Usually it like real freaking obvious that it is not gonna snow anytime soon... Usually is is like too warm or we are caught in a cutter cold warm up pattern.. but persistent cold. A tease every three days... Ever present 240 he storm? Man f this. Relax my friend! As I tried to emphasize last weekend, we have been in a very dry pattern since September. Now, the push of cold air from the northwest is so strong that it shears most potential to our south and blocks the Gulf other than inconsequential clutter that we try to get excited about. I do see light at the end of the tunnel on the 12z ECM and 18z GFS. This is dreamland at 240 hrs., but offers hope as the cold thrust is relaxing and the STJ is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Not to mention that it’s at least cold. For the past I don’t know how many winters we’ve had unseasonably warm temps through December and chased a pattern change in mid January that never materialized until March. Before I get band by the mean h20.... People need to do some reality checking. If you are looking for door to door cold with an event every 1-2 weeks this area is WAY low on the list of places to live. We are who we are here and always will be. We're having the best Dec since 2009 and people are unhinged. It's kinda embarrassing honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 We haven't even had a short range bust this winter. Let that sink in for a minute. Every event that presented itself in a reasonable range has panned out nicely. The WDI says get ready for a reaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Before I get band by the mean h20.... People need to do some reality checking. If you are looking for door to door cold with an event every 1-2 weeks this area is WAY low on the list of places to live. We are who we are here and always will be. We're having the best Dec since 2009 and people are unhinged. It's kinda embarrassing honestly. Embarrassing is right. And then tomorrow morning we will have a 20 page thread and three hour traffic jams for a trace of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We haven't even had a short range bust this winter. Let that sink in for a minute. Every event that presented itself in a reasonable range has panned out nicely. The WDI says get ready for a reaming. Very true. I was looking through the March 13-14 storm threads for last year's storm, and nothing can get worse than that. Models were incredibly promising, and then DC got stuck on the sleet line, and the squall line did nothing. Can't get worse than a bust to end a winter than busted. Hard to get worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 what a series of posts from PD3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: what a series of posts from PD3 lol every winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Very true. I was looking through the March 13-14 storm threads for last year's storm, and nothing can get worse than that. Models were incredibly promising, and then DC got stuck on the sleet line, and the squall line did nothing. Can't get worse than a bust to end a winter than busted. Hard to get worse than that. Heh, it gets much worse than that. You weren't here for March 2013. Other than Boxing Day, that was the only storm where I contemplated ending my computer's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, it gets much worse than that. You weren't here for March 2013. Other than Boxing Day, that was the only storm where I contemplated ending my computer's life. That was the first storm I "tracked". Remember it pretty clearly. I hated my band teacher and band in general, so I was following the weather that entire week leading up to the storm to hope to miss that Wednesday, which I had band on. Still missed that day, but it was pretty depressing watching it rain in the afternoon after we had gotten 3" of sloppy snow, especially since I remember my dad showing me the CWG article about the chance of a big storm about 5 days before. Looked at the obs about the storm, and it seemed very depressing. Another big bust was the after Valentine's day weekend storm 2015, where we had a change to get 6-8", but a dryslot made us get less than half of that. That winter made up for it fast though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This was copied from the SE Forum. "18z CMC looks better...would think the 0z would lean this way. Well, more of a hope then. " 18Z is on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, mappy said: what a series of posts from PD3 lol Kinda feel bad for him. It does get frustrating when you get your hopes up that high. Just gotta stay even tempered with these wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You haven't been doing this very long or don't have a good memory. We've already had 3 snow events this month and have "suffered" through about a week of bad times. Were you here during the stretch from Feb 2011 all the way through March 2013? That stretch was about 14 billion magnitudes worse than this one. This year is actually a GOOD year. Agreed. At least there is stuff to track. We have had entire winters without even fantasy storms to look at. I have been screwed more than anyone else in the MA and I am actually enjoying trying to figure out what the hell the GFS is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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