mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Is that sorta like beach week for college kids during spring break but everyone's jacked on caffeine instead of cheap vodka? I think you misunderstood, or maybe not. The point is not that we could get anything like that snowfall wise, but more that the models are overwhelmed with the circumstances to come to any consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL I'll take the under. Frustrating pattern right now. Just have to remind ourselves it's not even January yet. All we have to do is look at h5 on 18z to know what will happen. Shouldn't be long now Have that last drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I think you misunderstood, or maybe not. The point is not that we could get anything like that snowfall wise, but more that the models are overwhelmed with the circumstances to come to any consensus. I was joking. Auto correct or typo. You posted latte week and not late week. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 18z GFS has a very similar depiction at h5 at 72-84hrs. Strong energy coming onshore the PAC NW/Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS out to 87 is similar in fashion to its 12z counterpart. Confluence is just a tick to the southwest. Vort very strong once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was joking. Auto correct or typo. You posted latte week and not late week. Lol What's a latte? J/k!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Looking closer down the road....if a virtually nonexistent shortwave can produce snowshowers here tomorrow, I'd be willing to make a small wager that it happens again on Friday. No precip on any models but if this is correct, someone is getting a little light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Gfs trended towards the Euro, lower heights in the GAK, and the CA ridge is further east. GFS is really lousy in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Strong vort continues to dig at hr 102 with additional energy being pulled north from the southwest. 18z comingtogether again it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Gfs trended towards the Euro, lower heights in the GAK, and the CA ridge is further east. GFS is really lousy in this pattern. Looking at 108 hrs, you wouldn't know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Gfs trended towards the Euro, lower heights in the GAK, and the CA ridge is further east. GFS is really lousy in this pattern. It's a ghost. Just like the southern storm. Anybody buying the gfs right now should go to hr 66 precip panel on TT and click previous run 8 times then decide if they believe the gfs at hr 102 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Gfs trended towards the Euro, lower heights in the GAK, and the CA ridge is further east. GFS is really lousy in this pattern. Doesn't my look too bad. But you are smarter than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, Jebman said: This is all MY FAULT. I was the damned POS who wanted a ton of cold air. Well, we got the monolithic 1055mb high, and it has this slight tendency to shear some of the incoming shortwaves out. It's all my fault. If I had not been so damned GREEDY for frigid air and getting to REALLY FREEZE, we would have had a decent shortwave and a decent climo snow throughout the entire subforum on the 29th. We would all have been content and would have enjoyed a ton of stout. I done killed the snow unicorn with my Siberian airmass. F***. It's not your fault. I blame it on PhineasC. Last Friday the 22nd when the GFS showed 2feet of snow he jokingly said "radio show?" Should be forbidden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It's further south than 12z. I think the confluence crushes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just judging off the Vort and Surface, me thinks this will get squashed some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Never trust the gfs beyond int. In this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's further south than 12z. I think the confluence crushes it. Yeah, I saw that. Looks like it tries to turn the corner, but then it doesn't. This is probably another reason we should focus on the short-medium range at the moment. It will probably show a different solution by 18z tomorrow as well. We can only hope that the models trend this puppy NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Doesn't my look too bad. But you are smarter than me I outlined a simple test above. The "event" will almost certainly fade away in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 High is too strong. Likely to get shunted to our south with less precipitation than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: High is too strong. Likely to get shunted to our south with less precipitation than 12z I know this evolution is unlikely, but one’s gotta think that high won’t verify at 1059. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I outlined a simple test above. The "event" will almost certainly fade away in the next 48 hours. Certainly. It's not going to make it. Another one down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Never trust the gfs beyond int. In this pattern It loses its way pretty quick. If the southern wave disappearing act isn't enough to teach a lesson then this one should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I know this evolution is unlikely, but one’s gotta think that high won’t verify at 1059. I agree with you. High won't verify, but the event shown probably won't either. We've gotta hope for some quick events that surprise us like this Wednesday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Doesn't my look too bad. But you are smarter than me Changes were pretty subtle, I may have exaggerated a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I know this evolution is unlikely, but one’s gotta think that high won’t verify at 1059. That is usually the case as it modifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Changes were pretty subtle, I may have exaggerated a bit. This is how it starts. 0z will be a memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Changes were pretty subtle, I may have exaggerated a bit. We won't know for sure for another 2 days but my money is on the gfs totally blowing the weekend shortwave and everything beyond that is a high magnitude of extrapolated errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: This is how it starts. 0z will be a memory. Yep. That’s the way of the Grossly Fabricated Synoptic (GFS) model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Generates Fake Snow (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Question: Is the “storm” on D10 from the Euro the same Miller A that had been advertised for a while on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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