Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Regardless of what the models show we know if it digs enough and is as energetic as progged then somewhere that gets into "the band" will get 3-5" with that. Right now we're in the game. I agree this is a better bet then rooting on complicated interactions with the southern stream. 

I don't mind seeing a steady stream of systems crossing after that. None stand out as a serious threat now but that can change inside 5 days. 

Just gotta roll with whatever now. I've erased all thoughts of a juiced monster attacking from the south.

EPS run kinda sucked in general. One of the drier runs door to door. Probably a good thing because all the jacked runs over the last week were totally wrong. Time for some reverse modelology

[Jebman]

This is all MY FAULT.

I was the damned POS who wanted a ton of cold air. Well, we got the monolithic 1055mb high, and it has this slight tendency to shear some of the incoming shortwaves out.

It's all my fault. If I had not been so damned GREEDY for frigid air and getting to REALLY FREEZE, we would have had a decent shortwave and a decent climo snow throughout the entire subforum on the 29th. We would all have been content and would have enjoyed a ton of stout. I done killed the snow unicorn with my Siberian airmass.

F***.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

GFS did pick up first on backing off the big storm then other models caught on later.  Will see if Happy Hour GFS delivers.  

This time is a little different. GFS is manufacturing a storm that has zero support from more reliable guidance. We all want it to be right and score a major win but we're not talking that far out in time (it's getting organzied @ d5) and there is no sign of it anywhere. I've seen the EPS bust pretty bad before but completely missing a major eastern storm @ d5-6 is something that I've never seen. I guess there's a first for everything but I'll go with the GFS being nutz for now. If not 18z, 0z will probably look more like everything else. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Big event considering the year!

Yep. That looks about accurate for out here considering the year alright. But I would take my half inch and smile at the cold powder for sure.

[DCAlexandria]

Anyone got some weenie snow maps from the Euro?

[Scraff]

Maybe we should have a separate thread for social media snow threats, but for now, Rayno likes us this weekend for something...that’s better than nothing. https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/the-last-snowstorm-of-2017/vwnznzzde6s-xv6pflh40x_cr-frqb5v

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

today has been a good day. Yesterday was probably rock bottom for me in a long time

Mother Nature was just telling us to get off our phones and go enjoy the holiday. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Anyone got some weenie snow maps from the Euro?

Kuchera please!

[Expat]

Pardon me,  I've been skimming this discussion and was wondering if anyone has noticed the last several runs of the HRRR showing a band of -sn over the dc area tomorrow morning.  And why it has only been acknowledged once (unless I'm that thick and haven't noticed anything else)

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, FairfaxVAsnowlover said:

Pardon me,  I've been skimming this discussion and was wondering if anyone has noticed the last several runs of the HRRR showing a band of -sn over the dc area tomorrow morning.  And why it has only been acknowledged once (unless I'm that thick and haven't noticed anything else)

Yes the Euro and RGEM have it as well. Maybe someone can steal a half inch

[CAPE]

Check out the bay effect snow. Cape May Pummeled. lol

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, FairfaxVAsnowlover said:

Pardon me,  I've been skimming this discussion and was wondering if anyone has noticed the last several runs of the HRRR showing a band of -sn over the dc area tomorrow morning.  And why it has only been acknowledged once (unless I'm that thick and haven't noticed anything else)

...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE / 
WASHINGTON METRO AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...

There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the
Wednesday morning commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30
percent chance) Wednesday morning across the Baltimore / 
Washington metro areas with less than an inch accumulation on 
area roads.

If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning 
rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to 
dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive 
delays.

If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of 
significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra 
travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework
options.

Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

[Buddy1987]

Lol i'm laughing at the Nam vs GFS. Nam is out to 75 and it honestly looks pretty similar out in the Pacific NW with the depiction and evolution of the wave that enters the west coast. What if... Both are close in proximity to one another and both show the s/w with a closed contour and strong.

[poolz1]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This time is a little different. GFS is manufacturing a storm that has zero support from more reliable guidance. We all want it to be right and score a major win but we're not talking that far out in time (it's getting organzied @ d5) and there is no sign of it anywhere. I've seen the EPS bust pretty bad before but completely missing a major eastern storm @ d5-6 is something that I've never seen. I guess there's a first for everything but I'll go with the GFS being nutz for now. If not 18z, 0z will probably look more like everything else. 

Just curious as to what you are seeing that says the gfs is manufacturing this storm...just trying to learn a bit.  It appears the euro has the same pac s/w as the gfs...is it the northern stream energy that the gfs is on its own with?

To my my eye it looks like the euro moves energy toward cali and that flattens the ridge not allowing any dig with the pac vort.  Both the gfs and jma do not have this energy just off the coast of cali.  I would certainly trust the euro on this one but one of these models is in lala land with the look on the west coast....most likely its the model that is paling around with the jma i guess..

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering how small the weekend event is, it would take laser precision agreement for the ensembles to look like today's op run and that's not possible at 4+ day leads. The GFS/GEFS does score sometimes but day in day out, the euro/eps is the best performing model suite out there so it's much easier to discount the GFS/GEFS versus the other way around. 

The EPS has the northern stream wave but there's a lot of spread in both how much precip it drops and where it tracks. Once we get inside of 3 days we can pretty much just hug operational runs and not worry about the ensemble suites. With fast moving small/light events the ensembles don't add as much to the discussion as operational runs do. Especially at shorter leads. I would expect at least some agreement with ops starting tomorrow @ 12z. 

The euro control agrees with the op with the placement of the best qpf for the day 4 wave. That's sometimes a good sign the op isn't off its rocker. The ensembles struggle to pick up weak waves like that well. Of course the problem is it's such a small event scale wise that the slights adjustments could take us out of the "win" zone. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro control agrees with the day 10 threat also. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro control agrees with the day 10 threat also. 

Could you post the panel?

[psuhoffman]

EPS does suck though. Worst run in a long long time. Bone dry. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS does suck though. Worst run in a long long time. Bone dry. 

I fully expect the NYD threat to vaporize in this 18z run.  Or 0z maybe.  It's just the way it goes.  EPS is deadly as many have noted and it's inside 7 days.  But I will look..oh yes I will

[NorthArlington101]

Pardon me,  I've been skimming this discussion and was wondering if anyone has noticed the last several runs of the HRRR showing a band of -sn over the dc area tomorrow morning.  And why it has only been acknowledged once (unless I'm that thick and haven't noticed anything else)

It has like 10+ hours of snow at DCA. Sneaky inch?


. Pro

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

EPS is deadly as many have noted and it's inside 7 days

In general it's pretty good. This year though...NOTHING is deadly beyond 4 days. I'm not stressing over any long range anything 

[H2O]

The trend for the last day on the euro is to slow down the approaching vort off the west coast. And if you look at yesterday’s 12z euro it is closer to today’s 12z GFS. The euro IMO has been adjusting just as much as the GFS but they are arriving at different solutions at different lead times

[Cobalt]

In general it's pretty good. This year though...NOTHING is deadly beyond 4 days. I'm not stressing over any long range anything 

I agree. We'll have several threats that pop up within day 4 of any given day, and threats that disappear at this time as well.


.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could you post the panel?

Pretty good thump to start. Changes to rain at the end.  Too far out to worry. Don't even know if there is a storm yet.

[87storms]

lwx has a special statement out for the tomorrow morning's commute. could be some pixie dust on the roads.

[mitchnick]

Latte week sorta reminds me of a few days before 1/25/00. Models weren't certain which vort to key on and.most incorrectly went with one around 1/28/00, which is one other reason why the storm surprised most.

[Cobalt]

 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latte week sorta reminds me of a few days before 1/25/00. Models weren't certain which vort to key on and.most incorrectly went with one around 1/28/00, which is one other reason why the storm surprised most.

LOL I'll take the under. Frustrating pattern right now. Just have to remind ourselves it's not even January yet.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latte week sorta reminds me of a few days before 1/25/00. 

Is that sorta like beach week for college kids during spring break but everyone's jacked on caffeine instead of cheap vodka?

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro control agrees with the op with the placement of the best qpf for the day 4 wave. That's sometimes a good sign the op isn't off its rocker. The ensembles struggle to pick up weak waves like that well. Of course the problem is it's such a small event scale wise that the slights adjustments could take us out of the "win" zone. 

You know what....that's probably a bigger + than many realize. Of course it can all vaporize but having the control come to the same conclusion probably means more than what the ensembles say. Euro is a pretty damn good op through 96 hours. We're not in that range yet but the fact that the control looks the same is a great thing. Just need then both to do it 8 more times and we're shoveling...

Also agree 100% about ens not bringing much value with weak events 4-5 days out. Light precip + member spread = unimpressive panels. In general, light events are always best handled by ops and we can never be confident in any light event until somewhere around 48 hours tops.