Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[yoda]

Borrowed this from Rjay in the NYC forum... This any good or no?  GEFS ensemble...

 

[Bob Chill]

Yoda, the precip shield shifted SE from 6z gefs. It's a bad run for trends. No two ways around that. 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

After what we are going through with the Friday deal, looking down the road from that and feeling good about it is borderline insanity. 

Eta: what WhiteoutWX just said...lol

One silver lining is the gfs suppressed 4 straight systems just under us. It's not like there is nothing coming. There is a wave every 2 days it just squashes them all. I kind of doubt that. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Sure did...not the news we want ....but

Looking at snowfall within members ...thru Friday 14/22 get 2" into DC so that's something.  A complete shutout for wave 1 looks unlikely though. 

That's where my head is at. Let go of the big soltuions and track any measurable no matter how little. Lol

[psuhoffman]

It's frustrating not to have any handle on a specific threat when one seemed to be presenting itself but the whole long range period taken as a whole still holds potential. 

[Rtd208]

Modelology and not meteorology reigns supreme in these forums.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Modelology and not meteorology reigns supreme in these forums.

How are things in the NJ forum? Perhaps head back there for a bit to see.

[psuhoffman]

For some perspective. (Yes I'm disappointed what was a great setup gor threat one has devolved into ambiguousness) 

There are 4 clear distinct threats showing in the next 15 days. The runs can't agree at all on which will hit. None has a super majority but all 4 has enough support to say it's legit.

so in all  17/21 give D.C. 5"+ over the period. 

None are a shutout. 

If we step back and see the big picture we're not in that bad of shape. I'm not sugar coating the bad trends for threat one. But I always liked the fact this pattern wasn't a one and done. We often need multiple chances to score. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I think models are showing significant bias right now because their input is weighted too far one way (future predicts opposite)

Really warm right now



this is extreme

In 3-4 days it may be completely different solution. I would guess wetter and north (and maybe even weaker with low pressure).

 

[yoda]

Looks like the JMA is amped up... hard to tell though with 24 hour map

[Bob Chill]

Something important to keep in mind is the difference between the southern wave hitting and a whiff south is very small right now. We're 120 hours out. This isn't an apples to apples setup but if you look at the gfs for today 120 hours ago it looked like this:

 

An verification looks like this:

 

Instead of an ots solution, the storm is tracking west of us. It was never much of a threat but the point is that having flow more amped and backed in instead of sheared and south is very possible. 

You can do the same exercise with the 9th event and the little events that snuck up. Each situation is unique but just laying down at 120 hours thinking it's locked in flat, sheared, and south isnt supported by any previous event this year. 

Yes, it looks rough right now but tues is probably the earliest you can spike a ball.

[wkd]

Back on Dec 11 Katadog posted in OT that there  would be a big storm for us on Dec28-29. That's a positive. 

[mitchnick]

At 72 hrs, the cold is pressing further, meaning a strengthening vortex to our NE.

Versus last run of Euro

[Cobalt]

We could always have that last minute trend like the Dec 8th-9th event, but I'd like to have consensus way before then. Probably won't go down like that storm


.

[Bob Chill]

And the euro stripes us with mood snow on wed....heh

[ers-wxman1]

Euro looks quite suppressed through 72h. Doesn’t look favorable for us.

[mitchnick]

At 78 hrs, precip in Gulf of Mexico is further west and a little better organized than last run same time. Who knows if any consequence

[PhineasC]

By Tuesday evening the cold progs will have backed off a tad and the southern impulse will be hitting us or close to it. The models truly do always overdo the shredding.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And the euro stripes us with mood snow on wed....heh

I’ve been saying to keep an eye on that...

you and Hoffman have already mentioned it, but I’m still very optimistic. It’s an active pattern and we have cold air locked in. We’ll get ours.

[Amped]

96hrs, stick a fork in it.

[mitchnick]

Meh, 96 hrs looks worse than last night

[mitchnick]

Hmm things start firing back up after 96 with another trough maybe

[Amped]

Shortwave in the pacific not ejecting at 120 like the GFS.

[Bob Chill]

It's frustrating seeing the NS steam roller pattern but calling it over for good at this lead comes with the same set up problems as saying a good event it locked in.

[ers-wxman1]

Low off Jacksonville at 120h. This is toast for us. Pattern is way too progressive and confluent for amplification. Disappointing turn. 

[Cobalt]

Euro looks better at hr 120. Maybe not a hit, but better. Perhaps 0z was rock bottom and we trend away from this


.

[mitchnick]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Low off Jacksonville at 120h. This is toast for us. Pattern is way too progressive and confluent for amplification. Disappointing turn. 

Plenty of time for the models to remember that thing out in the Atlantic known as the SE Ridge

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Can I boldly predict that it goes so far north a lot of places are actually rain? 
 

A lot of potential +warm energy

[Bob Chill]

Big ns dominance on this run and strung out ejection of the SW in the pac nw. The closer we get the less we know. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Plenty of time for the models to remember that thing out in the Atlantic known as the SE Ridge

Yeah, while it’s not looking good now I’m not calling it dead at 120+ hours.   In all likelihood a lot will change and we should have arctic air in place.