Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I had a hunch there is no way we go bone dry for 10 days. Euro may be too good but loved the vort pass. This would be high 5s and smiles all the way around for like 90% of the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: oh wow, .2 contour right through the middle of the region. Boom! Exciting!. The Euro gives an idea how immportant what is happening in Canada is. It shows a pretty good shortwave coming into the Pac NW behind the the monster vortex that develops with our 0.20" storm. That vortex just shears the heck out of it. The evolution of the upper pattern over Canada is hugely different on the GFS and Euro. Emphasize the first impullse and deepen a upper level vortex with it and you get suppression for the GFS system. Don't do much with the 1st one like the GFS and then you have room for the GFS solution. I think the GFS is probably out to lunch but if I was writing a CWG article. I'd mention both possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Look at the placement of the vort off the CA coast by hr90. Its slower on this run which lets the western ridge nose back up some. Seems like thats what get the NS vort to slow down and dip a bit more S which gets us a precip stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 clippers can lay down pretty well here with even just 0.20 qpf. that's probably a 3-5" system if we're talking temps in the 20s. this is a northeast snow pattern. even if it doesn't produce a big storm, this is exactly what you want in a region where the average high temp is 10 degrees above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If you want GFS support look at the JMA. lol Its more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Exciting!. The Euro gives an idea how immportant what is happening in Canada is. It shows a pretty good shortwave coming into the Pac NW behind the the monster vortex that develops with our 0.20" storm. That vortex just shears the heck out of it. The evolution of the upper pattern over Canada is hugely different on the GFS and Euro. Emphasize the first impullse and deepen a upper level vortex with it and you get suppression for the GFS system. Don't do much with the 1st one like the GFS and then you have room for the GFS solution. I think the GFS is probably out to lunch but if I was writing a CWG article. I'd mention both possibilities. I always love these kinds of events Wes. They aren't prolific producers but a quick hitting couple of inches with hard frozen ground + good ratios is a very nice event. Now if we can get a dig a little further south....with a little more amplitude...and weak surface reflection in central VA....nah, that's crazy talk...Is it? tell me it isnt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I had a hunch there is no way we go bone dry for 10 days. Euro may be too good but loved the vort pass. This would be high 5s and smiles all the way around for like 90% of the sub I'll take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Climo is still pretty hostile at the end of December...usually you have to settle for small events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12/31 - Highs in the mid to upper teens....I'll take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Sounds like everyone is writing off the 12z GFS op run. Wouldn’t that be great for once if the GFS caught onto an early trend, this time in the right direction..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Climo is still pretty hostile at the end of December...usually you have to settle for small events... I don't think that is settling for any of us to be honest. Pattern isn't going to drop a precip bomb. That entire premise is long gone. This is one of those times where the cold hammer plays in our favor. In a typical year this vort would almost surely pass north (it certainly still might.lol) but forcing the shortwave far enough south is a byproduct of the unusually cold pattern. This isn't really a clipper. It's bringing pac moisture with it instead of the typical cold/dry Canadian prarie stuff. My hunch is the ens jump right on this but only because they seem to follow the op very close @ d4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 That 1044 mb high is sick...the size of jupiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Sounds like everyone is writing off the 12z GFS op run. Wouldn’t that be great for once if the GFS caught onto an early trend, this time in the right direction..lol Take what's in front and not trailing behind. Trust me on this. Looking past the potential this weekend in hopes of a big solution down the line is a recipe for failure almost every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't think that is settling for any of us to be honest. Pattern isn't going to drop a precip bomb. That entire premise is long gone. This is one of those times where the cold hammer plays in our favor. In a typical year this vort would almost surely pass north (it certainly still might.lol) but forcing the shortwave far enough south is a byproduct of the unusually cold pattern. This isn't really a clipper. It's bringing pac moisture with it instead of the typical cold/dry Canadian prarie stuff. My hunch is the ens jump right on this but only because they seem to follow the op very close @ d4-5. agree about settling...I think we'd be happy with anything half decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 Boom 0.25” at 20:1 ratios = WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: That 1044 mb high is sick...the size of jupiter I'm more interested in the bowling ball in the intermountain west/ 4 corners @ 192. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 January 3rd. Low of 5 at DCA...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Boom 0.25” at 20:1 ratios = WSW criteria. And we’re back. Cold powder. Wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 For those that are curious as to why the Euro is trending back to a small event for us. Here are the last 3 runs all at the same timeframe. Note how the Euro is slowly getting more ridging out west each run closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Clippers are one of my favorite types of events around here. Not complicated, and with a good Arctic airmass in place we can overproduce if things break our way. Best part? 4 days away. Not complicated in setup, but the exact paths sure do move around north and south up to within 36-hrs. And as you know, with a narrow stripe, that can be full of “yay” or “ugh.” Hopefully this path stays and the trending will be in strength so the precip shield is more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If Euro is right (lol), it would be a monster cold outbreak...low of -25 in Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 Nice depiction H2O. Probs it’ll be congrats RDU by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: If Euro is right (lol), it would be a monster cold outbreak...low of -25 in Toledo What's the all time low for Jan there ? Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: If Euro is right (lol), it would be a monster cold outbreak...low of -25 in Toledo The people who live in Toledo are already numb so what's a little cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: What's the all time low for Jan there ? Amazing All time record min is -20...They also hit -19 a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The possible event isn't a clipper. It's a long track Pac shortwave forced underneath in zonal flow (uncommon). The most important difference with a long track pac sw versus a clipper is that is already has a good bit of moisture with it in comparison to a clipper. That doesn't mean big QPF. Just better chances at .25 or so than something diving down out of the middle of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, H2O said: For those that are curious as to why the Euro is trending back to a small event for us. Here are the last 3 runs all at the same timeframe. Note how the Euro is slowly getting more ridging out west each run closer in time. Wonder what the next three will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Hold onto the handlebars for another d10 threat. lol. Normally the ULL track would suck or be mixed to rain but the ridiculously dumb strong cold high is going to win at least part of the battle. Fantasy storm of course but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The Day 10 event looks potentially juicy...As depicted, nice ice storm for ATL, GSP, AVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: The Day 10 event looks potentially juicy...As depicted, nice ice storm for ATL, GSP, AVL Would be a devastating ice storm as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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