clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Man. That cold on the GFS toward the end of next week is no joke. Single digits all the way down to Raleigh Durham. BRRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Man. That cold on the GFS toward the end of next week is no joke. Single digits all the way down to Raleigh Durham. BRRRR! Is this gonna be a rare case if having TOO much cold air for snow? Like so much that everything is squashed? Or is it just a thing of the high pressure just being in the wrong place this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Not sure what the Ukie does, but at 144 it looks similar to Gfs. It does have a storm way off the coast at 96 hra too EDIT not so similar to gfs as I thoiggt so nevermind http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'm ALL about the cold. Any snow is a cherry on top. It looks cold thru day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The CMC has a lot more support than the GFS for right now. That can all change in a single suite of course. The last week or so has proven that there is limited consistency beyond hr120. We can get greedy and hope the lead wave d4-5 drops 2-4 then a follow amplifies and drops warning level snows. That's right out of the weenie playbook too. Kidding aside Bob, that scenario really works, does it? But if it were closer to 4 inches I take the CMC too. If it's only going to be 1 to 2 in with the CMC, I'll put my money down on the second system. That one looks like it has room to move up the coast a little. Just as long as the Euro starts coming on board this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Kidding aside Bob, that scenario really works, does it? But if it were closer to 4 inches I take the CMC too. If it's only going to be 1 to 2 in with the CMC, I'll put my money down on the second system. That one looks like it has room to move up the coast a little. Just as long as the Euro starts coming on board this afternoon. After many long years of wasting time on this silly hobby, I always live by 1 rule. ALWAYS concentrate on the first thing in line. Looking beyond that is ripe for disappointment like 90% of the time. Op runs are really only good and useful through about 96-120 hours. Once you cross that threshold nothing can be believed unless it holds run and run after run...which we haven't seen a single time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yea wxwatcher, Ukie is a disaster honestly. Just one run and the NS vort pass is still there. This run doesn't do much if anything for anyone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 GEFS is uninspiring with any threat. The d4-5 thing is barely detectable. The fantasy NYD storm is east and dry for the most part. Not a good run. The good thing in general is even though the trough west/ridge east is showing late in the run like other ensembles, it doesn't look like it's something that has legs. EPO ridge is still there and no big blue ball over the pole. Eventually something will break our way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I'm not even sure what I'm looking (read: hoping) for honestly. I hope the writing isn't on the wall but I was never confident about us producing during this period. My greatest concern is that the Nina wakes up and we hit the switch to end winter without doing anything more than a decent December, which is great for December #'s but not for reaching our climo average. And lets not forget not all of us got a decent December either. The Ukie is another example of heartache for those of us to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is uninspiring with any threat. The d4-5 thing is barely detectable. The fantasy NYD storm is east and dry for the most part. Not a good run. The good thing in general is even though the trough west/ridge east is showing late in the run like other ensembles, it doesn't look like it's something that has legs. EPO ridge is still there and no big blue ball over the pole. Eventually something will break our way.... and when the GEFS loooked great...we got ****...so there is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: and when the GEFS loooked great...we got ****...so there is that I'm not buying jack beyond d5. None of us should. It's not that type of year and it's obvious. Any pac shortwave and any NS dig could do something. Not the greatest way to get something but I'm still very skeptical of bone dry for 10 days. When something sets up right we aren't going to know until inside of d5. Biting on long lead anything is crazytalk this year. We've had times where long lead stuff generally holds together in some fashion. And then other years when things just pop up. 13-14/14-15 never had long lead threats except for the large Feb 14 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro does have some wintry appeal tomorrow morning with what looks like snow showers in the area. Moco .02 deathband. If I can squeeze 50:1 ratios I'll score an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro does have some wintry appeal tomorrow morning with what looks like snow showers in the area. Tomorrow, whats the fun in that. I don't like cartoppers unless there's at least 5 days worth of hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Every flake should stick so will be able to count them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 NS vort tracking further south on the euro this run so there's that at least. It's one of those deals where we just track the upper level vort pass and let the surface happen in the short range. I'm not mad at the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The GFS and Euro are incredibly different by d4 as expected. I think the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NS vort tracking further south on the euro this run so there's that at least. It's one of those deals where we just track the upper level vort pass and let the surface happen in the short range. I'm not mad at the euro. You would think that this scenario playing out has legs , Ii mean we should get a dig based on the pattern and the strong NS flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The Euro is actually surprisingly bullish with QPF, over .10 given the amplitude. I'd certainly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, frd said: You would think that this scenario playing out has legs , Ii mean we should get a dig based on the pattern and the strong NS flow Get a good pass enough south and we can have some upside for sure. This run is actually pretty good with the vort pass. Especially compared to the 0z run. I'm pretty happy about it. Very unlikely to ever be more than a small event but 2" of snow would do a lot for the spirits on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: The Euro is actually surprisingly bullish with QPF, over .10 given the amplitude. I'd certainly take it. For a small NS event, I'm pretty happy with the h5 progression. Puts us right in the middle of the best upper level support and lift as it swings through. Something broke right for once...lol...only 4 days out too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The GFS and Euro are incredibly different by d4 as expected. I think the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one. I agree, it's alone though whenn you loook at its ensemble members there are a few with similar solutions so even though I favor the Euro, I'd love the GFS and the outlier GEFS members to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 oh wow, .2 contour right through the middle of the region. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Get a good pass enough south and we can have some upside for sure. This run is actually pretty good with the vort pass. Especially compared to the 0z run. I'm pretty happy about it. Very unlikely to ever be more than a small event but 2" of snow would do a lot for the spirits on this board. True Bob . I need a lift in spirits, as we all do. I need to get my Christmas spirit back :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The GFS and Euro are incredibly different by d4 as expected. I think the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one. I agree Bob. Plus this was the exact range (hr 128-144) where the GFS simulated the major storm for us from last week. Model continues to have medium range issues. Pattern is not supportive and I would expect it to be lost by tonight’s run unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Big event considering the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: oh wow, .2 contour right through the middle of the region. Boom! N/Sor E/W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Heh, Das special right here. .25 @ 15:1 = big win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Models have been trending more zonal recently. GFS has been last to catch onto the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: N/Sor E/W? This run was almost too perfect but it's exactly what you look for with NS vorts moving though. Would be big fluffy dendrites too. Lock this the F up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 A nice cold 2-4" before the next arctic hammer drops would be very nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.