mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Trough has swung out west better at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 CMC amplifies the lead wave and give us something. That's the one the euro/ukie amplify as well. It's weak but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: What am I missing. h5 is digging west of 6z. Agree, but a little later in the run. I think we're going to be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What am I missing. h5 is digging west of 6z. 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Trough has swung out west better at 114 This is getting interesting at 132. Trough is REALLY digging out west still. Much better return of gulf moisture to the northwest this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Agree, but a little later in the run. I think we're going to be happy I was thinking the same thing looking at the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Agree, but a little later in the run. I think we're going to be happy Going to be a model war today. GFS does nothing with the lead wave that the euro/ukie/cmc do. Keys on the second wave and finds room to amplify. All we can do is hope the GFS is going to score one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Gfs better bring it north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Incoming wall @138. Boy do I pray the GFS is right in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Now this isnt ugly. Dont even need to look at precip panels to like what the GFS is advertising this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It doesn't look like it turns the corner this run, but I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: It doesn't look like it turns the corner this run, but I could be wrong Gets pushed out by that monster high in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: It doesn't look like it turns the corner this run, but I could be wrong A bit too much positive tilt but who cares. It's way out in time and the GFS is on Bermuda compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 So very close, but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Southern areas of the forum would be happy...maybe up to EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Hell I would be happy with couple inches. Not proud or greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Now this isnt ugly. Dont even need to look at precip panels to like what the GFS is advertising this run: Positively tilted meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If that confluence to the north was just a little bit weaker.....Eh it is what it is. And like Bob said the GFS is on an island right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS back at its old self again getting my Bi Polar hopes up...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: Positively tilted meh Can't come in after the fact and say it was no good. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 As depicted there is room for improvement but not going to overthink it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If we stick with the same general idea that everything else (except the GFS) is showing, the CMC delivered a 1-4" event. Same shortwave that the euro/ukie give us an inch or 2 with. ETA: the euro/ukie last night were just 100 miles too far north for our liking. CMC is almost perfect. Hopefully a south trend has commenced. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Conway7305 said: GFS back at its old self again getting my Bi Polar hopes up...haha Maybe but it sees better h5. Sparse data region but remember the NAM had better h5 at 0z. It usually leads the way. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: As depicted there is room for improvement but not going to overthink it Welp, figure in the Gfs always over does confluence at 120 hours, and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If we stick with the same general idea that everything else (except the GFS) is showing, the CMC delivered a 1-4" event. Same shortwave that the euro/ukie give us an inch or 2 with. ETA: the euro/ukie last night were just 100 miles too far north for our liking. CMC is almost perfect. Hopefully a south trend has commenced. lol Reviewing the Cmc vs. Gfs, I'll go with the Cmc. Comes in by 96 hours and has a snowfall bullseye over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Can't come in after the fact and say it was no good. Lol I read the board a lot a lot a lot during work I noticed the tilt early and posted what I saw then read on on Mr chill had the same thought. Thanks everyone on the board for there analysis every year! Being patient in a cold dry pattern is tuff and we are in a slight drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Reviewing the Cmc vs. Gfs, I'll go with the Cmc. Comes in by 96 hours and has a snowfall bullseye over my house. The CMC has a lot more support than the GFS for right now. That can all change in a single suite of course. The last week or so has proven that there is limited consistency beyond hr120. We can get greedy and hope the lead wave d4-5 drops 2-4 then a follow amplifies and drops warning level snows. That's right out of the weenie playbook too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Trough digs much deeper out west on 12z GFS. H5 looks better. Could be on to something. Just need to tap into GOM moisture and round the corner a bit more up the coast. Classic Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It doesn't look like it turns the corner this run, but I could be wrong looks less flat, so room to creep north. to me 500/700 look less consolidated than 6z so thats a flag, but the look is better than the W/NW snow shredder. time for trends...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The CMC has a lot more support than the GFS for right now. That can all change in a single suite of course. The last week or so has proven that there is limited consistency beyond hr120. We can get greedy and hope the lead wave d4-5 drops 2-4 then a follow amplifies and drops warming level snows. That's right out of the weenie playbook too. When it' the GFS against the world that usually doesn't end well for the GFS Lol. But if you look back at the last 4 runs of the GFS it has kept the same idea of the second short wave. Should be an interesting set of runs today. Hopefully we can score from atleast one of the two short waves. With our luck the first will hit sne and the second will give the Carolinas a ft of snow...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The CMC has a lot more support than the GFS for right now. That can all change in a single suite of course. The last week or so has proven that there is limited consistency beyond hr120. We can get greedy and hope the lead wave d4-5 drops 2-4 then a follow amplifies and drops warning level snows. That's right out of the weenie playbook too. That's the beauty of the weenie playbook....it continues to be amended as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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