evaporativecooler Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The pattern at 384 is so similar to the current shift to cold that it's uncanny really. Groundhog day and stuff. I'm pretty sure if we sustain this kind of cold with no insulating snow it'll so some heavy duty damage to the insect population if nothing else. Maybe a nice mosquito free summer for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Looks like chance of more precipitation in the final week of this cold pattern (unless GFS op is right). Like someone said in this thread earlier, our best events happen near the end of cold patterns (ex. Jan 22-24). Not saying we're gonna get anything even remotely close to that event, but maybe a sneaky event during that week that overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 GEFS looks wetter through the 2nd. Supports the GFS op for the event on the 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, evaporativecooler said: I'm pretty sure if we sustain this kind of cold with no insulating snow it'll so some heavy duty damage to the insect population if nothing else. Maybe a nice mosquito free summer for once? Is there really such a thing? I see mosquito during a warm spell dead of winter in central Va!! No way to get rid of those pesty bugs!! I keep backwoods cutter on my deck year round! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Is there really such a thing? I see mosquito during a warm spell dead of winter in central Va!! No way to get rid of those pesty bugs!! I keep backwoods cutter on my deck year round! wishful thinking I guess. Just hope it kills something, it's like an invasion from hell here in summer with the stinkbugs, mosquitos and japanese beetles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, evaporativecooler said: wishful thinking I guess. Just hope it kills something, it's like an invasion from hell here in summer with the stinkbugs, mosquitos and japanese beetles I have tried everything! Nothing kills these pesty insects!! The rest, sugar ants, flees, ticks, yea!! But the itchy mosquito bite, nothing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, ATreglown said: I have tried everything! Nothing kills these pesty insects!! The rest, sugar ants, flees, ticks, yea!! But the itchy mosquito bite, nothing!! Well, one thing does, back woods cutter, but I do not like the smell, but its better than itching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Ukie mostly holds with .5-2" around the area next weekend. Same timing and same northern stream vort. More similar to the euro with the mini qpf max near LI and not Jersey but for us about the same. That's back to back runs at reasonable leads. There can be upside with small shortwaves like this. We're on the southern edge for now so that's not the desireable side. Keeping hope alive to not waste an unusually long cold period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 GEFS does exactly what I thought it would do. Keeps the cold going. Below freezing for almost 2 weeks. We're still basically looking on the outside in of this cold, and I still believe that we won't be shut out of snow in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I don’t know what happened to our northeast but I’ll just put it out there for our area: The last 10 day below freezing stretch at DCA came from 12/16-12/25 1989. That *didn’t* coincide with the good early season snows we had. It came after that period, and ended unremarkably here while lowland SC to Cape Hatteras had a historic 1-2 feet of snow. So, yes, there is precedence for an extended super cold and super dry period. Super hammer long-term cold here requires extraordinary suppression and overall dryness. However, for the vast majority of shorter but still impressive below freezing regimes—say 4 days below freezing or more— there was measurable snow right before, during, or ending the period. I mentioned late 1/04 as close to 10 days below freezing save for one day in the middle. We had a very nice moderate 4-6” subforum special during that period. Early 2/07, late 1/05, early 1/96, early 2/95, and more periods when you go back in time, were also 4-day-or-more below freezing stretches fit that mold. So an extended super cold stretch is usually very favorable for us for accumulating snow as long as it’s not too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Can you really see that Dec 29 storm going 4 days without trending wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Can you really see that Dec 29 storm going 4 days without trending wetter? I see it disappearing into nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Extrapolate at your own risk. Weak shortwave in TX at 144. Precip is breaking out in front of. Getting this far north would be a challenge but better than dry coast to coast. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro has precip just to our North Saturday. A swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Euro has precip just to our North Saturday. A swing and a miss Ack...how much would THEY get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ack...how much would THEY get? Still 4 days out, and especially since this is the Northern vort doing all the work we could easily have this slide South. If you want to know what the 0z Euro shows, it's shown NYC/Long Island having a MECS, but best case scenario for us is 2-4" (Euro wasn't too far off 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Congrats SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Congrats SNE They get snow and they get Brady...what possibly could there be to complain about up there in the winter time? Lol But didn't someone say that it's harder to get things to trend south than north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 42 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I see it disappearing into nothing at all. Cool. It's been a long time where so many days passed without storm at this time of year, in this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 0z Euro has weenie tease at day 10. Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I gotta be blunt and honest here...I've been reading Cohen's blog for 4 years and I'm not impressed. He took credit for the SAI causing a cold east in 13-14 but it was a raging positive AO year. An utter failure of the index and what it's supposed to support. Instead of just saying the SAI sucked (which it did) he publicly said that he correctly predicted the cold in the east. I call total BS. I just read the entire update and it's a long wordy way of saying he doesn't know. The 3 options for the rest of winter are cold/-AO, warm/+AO, or cold because of the epo even if the AO is positive. Any of us here can predict that. Lol. Cohen added the 13-14 option in the blog. Really dude? He didn't make a call, covered all bases, and will be right by default. I did like the part about what mechanism in the strat and trop can cause a flip to cold/blocking. That was informative. He also said that were running out of time for strat help and we'll know in the next couple weeks. My guess is it doesn't happen only becuase it hasn't happened since 2010-11. I wouldn't bet against that right now so for me it and easy call and I hope I'm dead wrong. Appreciate your insight, Bob. I'm still an amateur at the advanced meteorology stuff so I found the update to be somewhat informative, especially with regard to stratosphere and troposphere mechanisms. I believe we'll flip back to cold before Jan ends...but since we have pretty much no idea what will happen, anyone's guess is as good as mine. Maybe I'm optimistic just because I'm young and haven't been through many busts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Very sad, if this is close to reality. 10 day precipitation per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Monday/Tuesday event slowly emerging. EPS has slightly bigger signal. 7 days out, so I remain hopeful Sat event also now has completely lost Southern activity (which is a positive. We just need the Northern activity to trend southward.) And finally, Jan 4-6th window could come true. EPS has had weak signal (but still there), so there's a possibility there. 3 potentially light events. That's it. Still plenty of tracking. La Nina winters are full of nickel and dime, events that pop up or disappear within day 4, and the occasional (but rare) big hitter. March 13-14 was close for DC (congrats far NW burbs), but this winter has just kicked off. Plenty of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6z GFS our Christmas miracle a day late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 the same as shown christmas eve?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 hours ago, evaporativecooler said: I'm pretty sure if we sustain this kind of cold with no insulating snow it'll so some heavy duty damage to the insect population if nothing else. Maybe a nice mosquito free summer for once? Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. Insects are prolific. If we have a late winter/early spring drought, the first round of mosquitoes might get knocked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said: the same as shown christmas eve?? You mean the same outcome? Probably. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said: the same as shown christmas eve?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6z GFS has a nice little storm for us to usher in the New Year. Maybe 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Change in the arctic Stratosphere to stronger PV is expected to happen in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.