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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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evaporativecooler

evaporativecooler

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The pattern at 384 is so similar to the current shift to cold that it's uncanny really. Groundhog day and stuff. 

I'm pretty sure if we sustain this kind of cold with no insulating snow it'll so some heavy duty damage to the insect population if nothing else. Maybe a nice mosquito free summer for once?

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted

Looks like chance of more precipitation in the final week of this cold pattern (unless GFS op is right). Like someone said in this thread earlier, our best events happen near the end of cold patterns (ex. Jan 22-24). Not saying we're gonna get anything even remotely close to that event, but maybe a sneaky event during that week that overperforms. 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_10.thumb.png.29ffb82319e8eaea9027a08cb06c5cb9.png

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ATreglown

ATreglown

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, evaporativecooler said:

I'm pretty sure if we sustain this kind of cold with no insulating snow it'll so some heavy duty damage to the insect population if nothing else. Maybe a nice mosquito free summer for once?

Is there really such a thing? I see mosquito during a warm spell dead of winter in central Va!! No way to get rid of those pesty bugs!! I keep backwoods cutter on my deck year round!

 

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evaporativecooler

evaporativecooler

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

Is there really such a thing? I see mosquito during a warm spell dead of winter in central Va!! No way to get rid of those pesty bugs!! I keep backwoods cutter on my deck year round!

 

wishful thinking I guess. Just hope it kills something, it's like an invasion from hell here in summer with the stinkbugs, mosquitos and japanese beetles

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ATreglown

ATreglown

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, evaporativecooler said:

wishful thinking I guess. Just hope it kills something, it's like an invasion from hell here in summer with the stinkbugs, mosquitos and japanese beetles

I have tried everything! Nothing kills these pesty insects!! The rest, sugar ants, flees, ticks, yea!! But the itchy mosquito bite, nothing!!

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Ukie mostly holds with .5-2" around the area next weekend. Same timing and same northern stream vort. More similar to the euro with the mini qpf max near LI and not Jersey but for us about the same. That's back to back runs at reasonable leads. 

There can be upside with small shortwaves like this. We're on the southern edge for now so that's not the desireable side. Keeping hope alive to not waste an unusually long cold period...

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I don’t know what happened to our northeast but I’ll just put it out there for our area: The last 10 day below freezing stretch at DCA came from 12/16-12/25 1989. That *didn’t* coincide with the good early season snows we had. It came after that period, and ended unremarkably here while lowland SC to Cape Hatteras had a historic 1-2 feet of snow.

So, yes, there is precedence for an extended super cold and super dry period. Super hammer long-term cold here requires extraordinary suppression and overall dryness.

However, for the vast majority of shorter but still impressive below freezing regimes—say 4 days below freezing or more— there was measurable snow right before, during, or ending the period. 

I mentioned late 1/04 as close to 10 days below freezing save for one day in the middle. We had a very nice moderate 4-6” subforum special during that period. Early 2/07, late 1/05, early 1/96, early 2/95, and more periods when you go back in time, were also 4-day-or-more below freezing stretches fit that mold. 

So an extended super cold stretch is usually very favorable for us for accumulating snow as long as it’s not too long.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ack...how much would THEY get?

Still 4 days out, and especially since this is the Northern vort doing all the work we could easily have this slide South. If you want to know what the 0z Euro shows, it's shown NYC/Long Island having a MECS, but best case scenario for us is 2-4" (Euro wasn't too far off 12z)

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SteveVa

SteveVa

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta be blunt and honest here...I've been reading Cohen's blog for 4 years and I'm not impressed. He took credit for the SAI causing a cold east in 13-14 but it was a raging positive AO year. An utter failure of the index and what it's supposed to support. Instead of just saying the SAI sucked (which it did) he publicly said that he correctly predicted the cold in the east. I call total BS. 

I just read the entire update and it's a long wordy way of saying he doesn't know. The 3 options for the rest of winter are cold/-AO, warm/+AO, or cold because of the epo even if the AO is positive. Any of us here can predict that. Lol. Cohen added the 13-14 option in the blog. Really dude? He didn't make a call, covered all bases, and will be right by default. 

I did like the part about what mechanism in the strat and trop can cause a flip to cold/blocking. That was informative. He also said that were running out of time for strat help and we'll know in the next couple weeks. My guess is it doesn't happen only becuase it hasn't happened since 2010-11. I wouldn't bet against that right now so for me it and easy call and I hope I'm dead wrong. 

Appreciate your insight, Bob. I'm still an amateur at the advanced meteorology stuff so I found the update to be somewhat informative, especially with regard to stratosphere and troposphere mechanisms. I believe we'll flip back to cold before Jan ends...but since we have pretty much no idea what will happen, anyone's guess is as good as mine. Maybe I'm optimistic just because I'm young and haven't been through many busts lol

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted

Monday/Tuesday event slowly emerging. EPS has slightly bigger signal. 7 days out, so I remain hopeful

eps_tsnow_24m_ma_30.thumb.png.78c31b2b8d424e103feee43d38a86fcd.png

Sat event also now has completely lost Southern activity (which is a positive. We just need the Northern activity to trend southward.)

eps_tsnow_24m_ma_22.thumb.png.ad444818df886f66477a1d78b6e3d95b.png

And finally, Jan 4-6th window could come true. EPS has had weak signal (but still there), so there's a possibility there. 

eps_tsnow_24m_ma_41.thumb.png.a51b6a0252bd9e880013e36d841b8790.png

3 potentially light events. That's it. Still plenty of tracking. La Nina winters are full of nickel and dime, events that pop up or disappear within day 4, and the occasional (but rare) big hitter. March 13-14 was close for DC (congrats far NW burbs), but this winter has just kicked off. Plenty of hope 

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, evaporativecooler said:

I'm pretty sure if we sustain this kind of cold with no insulating snow it'll so some heavy duty damage to the insect population if nothing else. Maybe a nice mosquito free summer for once?

Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. Insects are prolific. If we have a late winter/early spring drought, the first round of mosquitoes might get knocked back.

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