AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 My guess, Dec 29 storm has more moisture, 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 LOL Canadian does what it does best, and shows very cold. Negative single digits as a matter of fact. No way this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Gfs is going crazy on that central plains high. Sucks that we can't get good snow but holy **** is that arctic outbreak looking nice. Looks like St. Louis gets below -15F verbatim at 156, that's pretty astounding. shades of 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I have to believe that when a 1060+ HP comes down wild things can happen. Not saying it will snow but move it NW a bit and you could have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Confluence in the NE is something that is over done frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Thought this was worth sharing in the GFS. Most of Florida freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Has DT had anymore thoughts on how ONLY the gfs loses storms only to bring them back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I have to believe that when a 1060+ HP comes down wild things can happen. Not saying it will snow but move it NW a bit and you could have something.Wasnt a 1060+ hp pressure progged on the cmc to drop into the plains this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 h5 looked much different which tells me this story has more chapters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I have to believe that when a 1060+ HP comes down wild things can happen. Not saying it will snow but move it NW a bit and you could have something. May get some river effect snow with that cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 DT officially throwing in the towel. He may have gotten the suppression of the SE ridge on and before Christmas right, but you can't get everything right I guess UPDATE ON DEC 29-30 SNOWSTORM THREAT... Even though we have been talking about the POTENTIAL for a moderate or signficiant snowstorm for Middle Atlantic region for DEC 29-30 for several days... I have NOT "released" the SNOW DAWGGIE. There is a reason for this. FIRST as some of you may know the trend from ALL of the various weather model guidance in the last 24 hrs (really the last 36 hours) -- has been for this system to look weaker and further east ( off the coast) with each cycle. We are at the point where no one can say well its 8 days or 6 days ... or 4 days away.. things could change . From a forecast perspective (which is very dififerent from wx weenie perspective) it is 3 days and closing fast. Even though I did NOT post earlier today (12/25).... I DID see all of the model data. The system looks sooooo weak on some models it is hard to even see ANY system at all. ****KEY INFORMATION if you have travel plans for next week you do NOT have to be concerned about a **SIGNIFICANT** Middle Atlantic or New England snowstorm. That threat is now over.**** Yeah things could still change but not that Much over the next 2.5 days. At BEST we are looking at a few inches of snow for central and eastern NC and se VA-- yes I mean Hampton Roads. North and West of line from Richmond to Middle Peninsula to Lower Maryland Eastern Shore there may not be ANY snow. What you DO have to worry about is ARCTIC COLD. Because there wont be a significant Low on the coast DEC 29-30.. the cold air gets into the area faster. On the morning of the 28th and 29th MIN temps will be the TEENS over north half of NC... all of central/ eastern VA except for southeast VA ...all of the Delmarva... all of central MD (including DC BAL) and SINGLE digits for the Shenandoah valley and mtns of western NC This sort of cold increases in intensity DEC 31 to JAN 1 as large portions of IND OH WVA western MD mich of PA willsee temps of 5 to -15 F for Min temps at dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I have to believe that when a 1060+ HP comes down wild things can happen. Not saying it will snow but move it NW a bit and you could have something. Wasnt a 1060+ hp pressure progged on the cmc to drop into the plains this week? Yes. Someone can correct me but where it drops in can make a difference in what happens at the surface...too east and suppression too west and warm east but middle can be money shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 This is one cold op run. That has some wow factor alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: This is one cold op run. That has some wow factor alone. Much colder compared to 18z. Wonder if GEFS will follow suit after hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Much colder compared to 18z. Wonder if GEFS will follow suit after hr 240 It's basically below freezing from now until 9 January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 haha, EPO region reloads just in time for the end of the run. All in all 8/10, no big snow but grade A cold and we get just as much if not more consolation flakes than NYC/Boston. Big win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It's basically below freezing from now until 9 January. But how much precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Cold and brown grass is useless waste for cold! I need some white powder to go with the cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: But how much precip? It's the op, but only precip after hr 240 comes in a light snow event hr 348. A whopping 0.4" of precip through hr 384. Probably due to the cold though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, ATreglown said: Cold and brown grass is useless waste for cold! I need some white powder to go with the cold!! If those flurries sunday morning actually panned out they'd last for the next week or so with progged temps lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Cold and brown grass is useless waste for cold! I need some white powder to go with the cold!! Still have a feeling that we won't go snowless before this cold patterns relaxes. Maybe we'll get help from Clippers or a fluke powder event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, evaporativecooler said: If those flurries sunday morning actually panned out they'd last for the next week or so with progged temps lmao Yea, but flurries do not cover things and you still get stuck going to work! I need depth because the holidays have worn me out, and need a 48 hour vacation to do nothing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Much colder compared to 18z. Wonder if GEFS will follow suit after hr 240Heck if we r going to go cold and relatively dry we might as well go for the gold. Below zero single digits ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 So GFS showed a chance for maybe 1 to 2 next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, evaporativecooler said: haha, EPO region reloads just in time for the end of the run. All in all 8/10, no big snow but grade A cold and we get just as much if not more consolation flakes than NYC/Boston. Big win The pattern at 384 is so similar to the current shift to cold that it's uncanny really. Groundhog day and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Much colder compared to 18z. Wonder if GEFS will follow suit after hr 240 Heck if we r going to go cold and relatively dry we might as well go for the gold. Below zero single digits ftw! Yea, I own my own business with the hubby, I can use the excuse, "sorry, to cold for me to venture out to work today"! Probably would work!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I do wonder how great lakes icing affects model handling of stormtracks. AFAIK GFS doesn't have an ice growth model built in so it isn't seeing the change in ice cover that will undoubtedly take place over the next few days, especially over lake erie with it's shallow column. Probably not a major factor but could hypothetically bump any modeled GL cutters a bit east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Much colder compared to 18z. Wonder if GEFS will follow suit after hr 240 Heck if we r going to go cold and relatively dry we might as well go for the gold. Below zero single digits ftw! It’ll be tough to do that though if no snow occurs. Right now if that 12/30-12/31 system materializes and we snows from the MA into SNE the odds of below 0 go up significantly. Not just because the snow pack but because a departing deepening low may also enhance the CAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: So GFS showed a chance for maybe 1 to 2 next weekend? Euro/ukie/cmc all similar with a weak sw this weekend and not the same way/timing at the gfs. Gfs hasn't been hanging well with the rest of the group so I'm ignoring it for now. Although I did like seeing more room to amplify something if we can actually get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I was a little surprised to see the weeklies have bn 2m temps through the end of Jan. The h5 look verbatim doesn't jump out as a colder than normal look. Only thing I can think of is that the members with higher than normal heights in AK, which is seen on the weekly mean, are probably translating to a very cold look... on those members. Others have noted that EPO looks to be the repetitive feature so far...and cold has been delivered as a result. Conflicting signals are screwing with the models....I would not be surprised to see the MJO take a warmish/COD tour before returning to the colder phases, tho not greatly amplified....and we rinse and repeat late Dec and Jan. Snow chances...who knows but shorter wavelengths later in the season can make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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