BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies. Read this page of the thread. http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25 Thanks. Don't put much stock in them but if they showed a torch it might verify. At least we don't have to cash in our chips just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Regardless of the look on the models right now, things WILL turn around and we will get snow this winter. Heck winter is only 4 days old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Guys check out 5h starting at 63 on the Nam and then look at the GFS from 18z. Worlds difference. Edit: The thing goes ape s*it at the end of the run. Laughable when trying to compare the two camps. Maybe the Nam digested some new info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys check out 5h starting at 63 on the Nam and then look at the GFS from 18z. Worlds difference. Edit: The thing goes ape s*it at the end of the run. Laughable when trying to compare the two camps. Maybe the Nam digested some new info? You don't have to compare the Nam to the GFS or any other model. Just compare the 78 hrs on the 0z Nam to the 84 hrs on the 18z. I'm talking 500mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys check out 5h starting at 63 on the Nam and then look at the GFS from 18z. Worlds difference. you ain't kidding. 00z f84 NAM 500 map and the 18z f90 GFS 500 map have huge differences. Interesting Plains shortwave in the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: You don't have to compare the Nam to the GFS or any other model. Just compare the 78 hrs on the 0z Nam to the 84 hrs on the 18z. I'm talking 500mb maps. Mitch what I was trying to get at is this is just another completely different setup that we hadn’t seen yet and just lends credence to what Bob had been mentioning that the models have no clue as to how they handle the atmosphere right now. Also 18z Nam has nothing close to this either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Regardless of the look on the models right now, things WILL turn around and we will get snow this winter. Heck winter is only 4 days old.Exactly. December snows are bonus snows. We havent even approached the climatology snow max probability period yet. I really think this is a year where our biggest snow(s) show up with shorter than normal lead time. If its one thing December has taught me thus far, it's to stay away from making bets on the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 25 minutes ago, Jebman said: Regardless of the look on the models right now, things WILL turn around and we will get snow this winter. Heck winter is only 4 days old. Exactly. December snows are bonus snows. We havent even approached the climatology snow max probability period yet. I really think this is a year where our biggest snow(s) show up with shorter than normal lead time. If its one thing December has taught me thus far, it's to stay away from making bets on the LR. We are going to have snows surprise us this low sun period. 100 percent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Problem is, we can't ignore the LR, we are even more hopelessly addicted to tracking the long range than we are to the actual snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Mitch what I was trying to get at is this is just another completely different setup that we hadn’t seen yet and just lends credence to what Bob had been mentioning that the models have no clue as to how they handle the atmosphere right now. Also 18z Nam has nothing close to this either. It's not a different setup as much as the northern stream starts digging pretty hard down from Canada along with the pac shortwave. Shortwave is stronger too but the important difference is the northern stream. Nam doesn't have good views up in that region but this shows it well 18z hr 84 0z hr78 I won't lie...it's interesting. Looks like a closed contour in Canada which would imply a vigorous piece of energy. If 0z globals follow then we may have a legit northern stream light event down the line. Otherwise it's just the nam nam'ing us which is part of regularly scheduled programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 NAM 32K has it too. What the heck is that? Never clicked on it. Lower reso NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 55 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies. Read this page of the thread. http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25 Heh, week 4 -epo. That's all I needed to hear and goes along with what I was thinking ealier. Next week will probably be week 3&4 with a -epo. Until that piece breaks down consistently for 2 weeks (not talking lala weeks 5-6) it will probably continue to be the most persistent teleconnection this winter. Only time will tell but if the scheduled relax in Jan ends up morphing into a week or less I won't be surprised at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, week 4 -epo. That's all I needed to hear and goes along with what I was thinking ealier. Next week will probably be week 3&4 with a -epo. Until that piece breaks down consistently for 2 weeks (not talking lala weeks 5-6) it will probably continue to be the most persistent teleconnection this winter. Only time will tell but if the scheduled relax in Jan ends up morphing into a week or less I won't be surprised at all I won't lie.....I loved the snowfall map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I won't lie.....I loved the snowfall map! Are you talking about the weeklies snowfall map? Cause I like it too. Looks about climo maybe a bit above. Cut it and half and I'm not mad. My bar for a good winter is 10" IMBY (3.1" so far this winter), so cut that total in half and I'm just about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I won't lie.....I loved the snowfall map! Unless it's an obscenely gross pattern, weeklies snowfall maps always look like climo in winter. They could be right but I can't recall many times in the past when they didn't look like that. 2015-16 looked pretty bad though. Especially Dec IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Took a while but the gfs finally dropped the southern wave. Not completely but probably in the next run or 2. Score one for the euro/ukie there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Took a while but the gfs finally dropped the southern wave. Not completely but probably in the next run or 2. Score one for the euro/ukie there. Yeah, saw that. Not sure what to make of the GFS with what it's shown in the medium range since it was the first run to show that the southern wave would be weaker, but it took the longest to drop the southern wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I think I see a difference at 500 hr 108 from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah, saw that. Not sure what to make of the GFS with what it's shown in the medium range since it was the first run to show that the southern wave would be weaker, but it took the longest to drop the southern wave Now that we're in the cold pattern and the euro/ukie scored a win they are the ones to beat. Gfs already looking more like the euro for next weekend. Actually looks half decent coming through the west. By decent I mean should give us something instead of nothing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: 108 looking better at h5 Thought so. Minor differences but something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Canadian has a little northern stream love at 114. Think euro had this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Canadian gives DC 1" Saturday via northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Thought so. Minor differences but something Compared to the 18z run, it's a pretty big change at 120. One of these days something will actually hold together inside of 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Pretty major changes at h5 hour 120. Looks like overrunning at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Wonder why the GFS keeps showing that potential New Years Day event while the Euro has shown nothing for quite some time now. Sniffing something out or just plain crazy? Tune in in 2 hours for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies. Read this page of the thread. http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25 They have a warmish look to me on weatherbell as I stated in my post earlier. Looks like some cherry picked 850t panels in that thread. The cold anomalies are clearly out west the majority of the time, and the east coast has above normal heights almost the entire run after the first week in January. Does not mean a torch, but hardly a cold look. Either way, in the grand scheme of things, it wont matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Even though the gfs has a similar progression as 18z, it got there a different way. Could be on to something but the last 2 runs aren't much of a trend. Like @losetoa6 pointed out, getting some room to amplify something is a refreshing change inside of a reasonable time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It is funny how the blue manages to avoid a large part of the region. Like a shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 A 1062 hp, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 52 minutes ago, BristowWx said: NAM 32K has it too. What the heck is that? Never clicked on it. Lower reso NAM? It's not a different model. It's the 12 km native model grid interpolated to a 32 km grid. That's why it look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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