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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies.  Read this page of the thread.

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25

Thanks.  Don't put much stock in them but if they showed a torch it might verify.  At least we don't have to cash in our chips just yet.  

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys check out 5h starting at 63 on the Nam and then look at the GFS from 18z. Worlds difference.

Edit: The thing goes ape s*it at the end of the run. Laughable when trying to compare the two camps. Maybe the Nam digested some new info? 

You don't have to compare the Nam to the GFS or any other model. Just compare the 78 hrs on the 0z Nam to the 84 hrs on the 18z. I'm talking 500mb maps. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

You don't have to compare the Nam to the GFS or any other model. Just compare the 78 hrs on the 0z Nam to the 84 hrs on the 18z. I'm talking 500mb maps. 

Mitch what I was trying to get at is this is just another completely different setup that we hadn’t seen yet and just lends credence to what Bob had been mentioning that the models have no clue as to how they handle the atmosphere right now. Also 18z Nam has nothing close to this either.

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Regardless of the look on the models right now, things WILL turn around and we will get snow this winter. Heck winter is only 4 days old.
Exactly. December snows are bonus snows. We havent even approached the climatology snow max probability period yet. I really think this is a year where our biggest snow(s) show up with shorter than normal lead time. If its one thing December has taught me thus far, it's to stay away from making bets on the LR.
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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
25 minutes ago, Jebman said:
Regardless of the look on the models right now, things WILL turn around and we will get snow this winter. Heck winter is only 4 days old.

Exactly. December snows are bonus snows. We havent even approached the climatology snow max probability period yet. I really think this is a year where our biggest snow(s) show up with shorter than normal lead time. If its one thing December has taught me thus far, it's to stay away from making bets on the LR.

We are going to have snows surprise us this low sun period. 100 percent chance.

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21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Mitch what I was trying to get at is this is just another completely different setup that we hadn’t seen yet and just lends credence to what Bob had been mentioning that the models have no clue as to how they handle the atmosphere right now. Also 18z Nam has nothing close to this either.

It's not a different setup as much as the northern stream starts digging pretty hard down from Canada along with the pac shortwave. Shortwave is stronger too but the important difference is the northern stream.

Nam doesn't have good views up in that region but this shows it well

18z hr 84

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_53.png

 

0z hr78

namconus_z500_vort_nwus_51.png

 

I won't lie...it's interesting. Looks like a closed contour in Canada which would imply a vigorous piece of energy. 

If 0z globals follow then we may have a legit northern stream light event down the line. Otherwise it's just the nam nam'ing us which is part of regularly scheduled programming. 

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55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies.  Read this page of the thread.

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25

Heh, week 4 -epo. That's all I needed to hear and goes along with what I was thinking ealier. Next week will probably be week 3&4 with a -epo. Until that piece breaks down consistently for 2 weeks (not talking lala weeks 5-6) it will probably continue to be the most persistent teleconnection this winter. 

Only time will tell but if the scheduled relax in Jan ends up morphing into a week or less I won't be surprised at all 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, week 4 -epo. That's all I needed to hear and goes along with what I was thinking ealier. Next week will probably be week 3&4 with a -epo. Until that piece breaks down consistently for 2 weeks (not talking lala weeks 5-6) it will probably continue to be the most persistent teleconnection this winter. 

Only time will tell but if the scheduled relax in Jan ends up morphing into a week or less I won't be surprised at all 

I won't lie.....I loved the snowfall map! :facepalm:

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I won't lie.....I loved the snowfall map! :facepalm:

Are you talking about the weeklies snowfall map? Cause I like it too. Looks about climo maybe a bit above. Cut it and half and I'm not mad. My bar for a good winter is 10" IMBY (3.1" so far this winter), so cut that total in half and I'm just about there. 

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7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I won't lie.....I loved the snowfall map! :facepalm:

Unless it's an obscenely gross pattern, weeklies snowfall maps always look like climo in winter. They could be right but I can't recall many times in the past when they didn't look like that. 2015-16 looked pretty bad though. Especially Dec IIRC 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Took a while but the gfs finally dropped the southern wave. Not completely but probably in the next run or 2. Score one for the euro/ukie there. 

Yeah, saw that. Not sure what to make of the GFS with what it's shown in the medium range since it was the first run to show that the southern wave would be weaker, but it took the longest to drop the southern wave

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah, saw that. Not sure what to make of the GFS with what it's shown in the medium range since it was the first run to show that the southern wave would be weaker, but it took the longest to drop the southern wave

Now that we're in the cold pattern and the euro/ukie scored a win they are the ones to beat. Gfs already looking more like the euro for next weekend. Actually looks half decent coming through the west. By decent I mean should give us something instead of nothing. Lol

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies.  Read this page of the thread.

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25

They have a warmish look to me on weatherbell as I stated in my post earlier. Looks like some cherry picked 850t panels in that thread. The cold anomalies are clearly out west the majority of the time, and the east coast has above normal heights almost the entire run after the first week in January. Does not mean a torch, but hardly a cold look. Either way, in the grand scheme of things, it wont matter much.

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