Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[Cobalt]

I would remain optimistic for eventual upgrades for Jan 1-2 time frame, the models have little of substance to work on now but the whole west-central theater is so ill-defined that only minor changes could start off a better cycle of maps from the general origin of Colorado to Texas in about 48-72h. There is a 500 mb trough with multiple weak centers to the north of the Great Lakes and prairies, which could evolve into a suitable organizing low. The current drift out to sea for the Jan 1-2 energy peak could quite easily reverse and move tighter into the coast. And there is no shortage of cold air feeding into the region. 
Plenty of time left for improvements and I suspect these will start showing up overnight and tomorrow. 

GEFS upped precipitation during that timeframe as per 18z


.

[Interstate]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's going to take a heck of a lot of compelling deep analysis for me to believe the gfs is picking up on anything real out that far other than it will probably be cold. Have you not been here the last week? Lol

The GFS has been the first to pick up on trends though. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Get excited.  Per Phillywx.com site they cancel winter

That will hold no doubt. Give me the warm and I will take my chances on precip.  

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Get excited.  Per Phillywx.com site they cancel winter

We probably get a blizzard sandwiched between 2 weeks loaded with 50+ highs. 

You know what I don't believe right now? I don't buy the eps showing .1 mean precip over the next 9 days. It covers a large area way beyond our region. Not saying it happens overhead (hope it does of course) but I think the cold crush will verify less crushing (that's technical stuff right there) and more areas will get a decent small-med event. 

I'm not buying the 9 day mean progs 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Get excited.  Per Phillywx.com site they cancel winter

Slow coming out on WB, but looking only at MSLP, I can say it looks pretty crappy with a +AO/NAO throughout.

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I would remain optimistic for eventual upgrades for Jan 1-2 time frame, the models have little of substance to work on now but the whole west-central theater is so ill-defined that only minor changes could start off a better cycle of maps from the general origin of Colorado to Texas in about 48-72h. There is a 500 mb trough with multiple weak centers to the north of the Great Lakes and prairies, which could evolve into a suitable organizing low. The current drift out to sea for the Jan 1-2 energy peak could quite easily reverse and move tighter into the coast. And there is no shortage of cold air feeding into the region. 

Plenty of time left for improvements and I suspect these will start showing up overnight and tomorrow. 

Ninja'd. I was just about to say that.  But I was going to say northwest-central.  

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We probably get a blizzard sandwiched between 2 weeks loaded with 50+ highs. 

You know what I don't believe right now? I don't buy the eps showing .1 mean precip over the next 9 days. It covers a large area way beyond our region. Not saying it happens overhead (hope it does of course) but I think the cold crush will verify less crushing (that's technical stuff right there) and more areas will get a decent small-med event. 

I'm not buying the 9 day mean progs 

Believe it

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Get excited.  Per Phillywx.com site they cancel winter

We need to cancel this thread! Someone start a new one before 0z. Maybe our luck will take a turn for the better?  

[CAPE]

I dont put much stock in the weeklies or too much effort into analysis because its a waste of time. Upshot is after the first week of January the NPAC becomes more unfavorable with Aleutian ridge and GOA/Western trough, and the AO/NAO is positive. Needless to say there is plenty of SER/WAR on the Atlantic side. If it is to be believed, we are in for a prolonged January thaw that may last well into February lol.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont put much stock in the weeklies or too much effort into analysis because its a waste of time. Upshot is after the first week of January the NPAC becomes more unfavorable with Aleutian ridge and GOA/Western trough, and the AO/NAO is positive. Needless to say there is plenty of SER/WAR on the Atlantic side. If it is to be believed, we are in for a prolonged January thaw that may last well into February lol.

Every, I mean every, seasonal model has February a torch....just sayin'.

No one knows how it ends, but the season started off with some high hopes and positive signals. Last couple of days sure has put the kybosh on that. At least it's early and we haven't wasted,  let alone entered, prime climo for our snow. 

[Roger Smith]

How much warning did the models give for the 1996 snowstorm? 

Here's an interesting factoid ...

1996 full moon Jan 5 2052z

1999 full moon Jan 2 0251z

2018 full moon Jan 2 0225z

My thesis is that the full moon (at this time in January coming shortly after another significant energy peak, northern declination maximum) has energy to provide to the atmosphere, it's not enough energy to shape the flow but whatever factors are shaping the flow, the full moon energy hits the provided set-up and develops a strong low there. Of course that's just another way of saying where the 500 mb flow is conducive, a storm will form. But this is partly about timing.

Those are not the only examples and I have some data analysis to show a significant effect. But in a warm pattern the effect will be in the Midwest to northern Great Lakes so you would expect warmer than average temperatures and rain with full moon during that sort of set-up (which we don't have here, think it was the case last full moon in early December). 

[Cobalt]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont put much stock in the weeklies or too much effort into analysis because its a waste of time. Upshot is after the first week of January the NPAC becomes more unfavorable with Aleutian ridge and GOA/Western trough, and the AO/NAO is positive. Needless to say there is plenty of SER/WAR on the Atlantic side. If it is to be believed, we are in for a prolonged January thaw that may last well into February lol.

Honestly, a torch in Jan/Feb is probably still the best time to have a torch during winter, since it's peak climo. We could still have a couple chances of snow during those times. If that lasts until past Feb 10th, then that's a red flag. I think we'll manage to get a couple late winter threats during mid-late Feb or early March

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Honestly, a torch in Jan/Feb is probably still the best time to have a torch during winter, since it's peak climo. We could still have a couple chances of snow during those times. If that lasts until past Feb 10th, then that's a red flag. I think we'll manage to get a couple late winter threats during mid-late Feb or early March

Can’t beleive we are talking about late winter threats already.  That’s how I know things are headed down a bad road.  Kind of like taking about next season for your favorite team after the first two games.  If the models can flip entirely in three days then three weeks is a coin toss.  

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont put much stock in the weeklies or too much effort into analysis because its a waste of time. Upshot is after the first week of January the NPAC becomes more unfavorable with Aleutian ridge and GOA/Western trough, and the AO/NAO is positive. Needless to say there is plenty of SER/WAR on the Atlantic side. If it is to be believed, we are in for a prolonged January thaw that may last well into February lol.

They could be right. But we both know if the eps grabs onto a different hemispheric pattern than what it shows now at the end, it will surely flip everthing. We've seen it many times. We've also seen countless -ao/-nao/+pna looks that never materialize. Lol. 

We're going to come out of this cold pattern with a relax. It happens 100% of the time. How long that lasts is the muddy part. At least a week if not 2 is probable to likely. My guess is at some point in Jan the epo reloads. It's been the only tele that has shown peristence this winter.

Could get some strat help too. That's shorter lead stuff and not something the weeklies or any seasonal model can see. 

I never thought this would be a cold snowy winter and that's why I initially went sub climo is the contest. Then....like a dummy...I went against my gut and upped it at the last minute becuase the AO gave me a head fake in late Nov.  Oops. Lol

[nj2va]

The models can barely get the medium to LR figured out right now...not sure what we expect with their performance in the uber LR. 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

They could be right. But we both knew if the eps grabs onto a different hemispheric pattern than what it shows now at the end, it will surely flip everthing. We've seen it many times. We've also seen countless -ao/-nao/+pna looks that never materialize. Lol. 

We're going to come out of this cold pattern with a relax. It happens 100% of the time. How long that lasts is the muddy part. At least a week if not 2 is probable to likely. My guess is at some point in Jan the epo reloads. It's been the only tele that has shown peristence this winter.

Could get some strat help too. That's shorter lead stuff and not something the weeklies or any seasonal model can see. 

I never thought this would be a cold snowy winter and that's why I initially went sub climo is the contest. Then....like a dummy...I went against my gut and upped it at the last minute becuase the AO gave me a head fake in late Nov.  Oops. Lol

But isn’t this just some bad luck?  I mean the pattern looked just three days ago like something text book epic.  Kocin was mentioned at one point.  Aren’t we all just victims of the model runs?  If not, what other indicators would we use?  Really, we are all model huggers by design because there is nothing else...it’s all we got...unless you are God and even he might be befuddled by the current changes that have occurred.  Some are much better interpreting the models like you but you can only interpret what you see every six or 12 hours.  My point is you weren’t a dummy to up your prediction..the models told you too...but they lied.  

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

They could be right. But we both know if the eps grabs onto a different hemispheric pattern than what it shows now at the end, it will surely flip everthing. We've seen it many times. We've also seen countless -ao/-nao/+pna looks that never materialize. Lol. 

We're going to come out of this cold pattern with a relax. It happens 100% of the time. How long that lasts is the muddy part. At least a week if not 2 is probable to likely. My guess is at some point in Jan the epo reloads. It's been the only tele that has shown peristence this winter.

Could get some strat help too. That's shorter lead stuff and not something the weeklies or any seasonal model can see. 

I never thought this would be a cold snowy winter and that's why I initially went sub climo is the contest. Then....like a dummy...I went against my gut and upped it at the last minute becuase the AO gave me a head fake in late Nov.  Oops. Lol

I've read a little chatter about strato and how it may be sending a wave that would help in January, but really havent heard much since we all started to laser in on the upcoming period that is rather suspect right now.  I know very little except that its usually a 30 ish day lag from when peturbed.  I know it sounds like I'm reaching, but wouldnt that potentially help to reload the AO/EPO? 

[aldie 22]

Christmas is kinda like winter...build up and anticipation for weeks then it's over in one day

[SteveVa]

Reposting this from the SE forum, I think y'all might find it interesting amid the chatter for possible reload later in Jan.

2 hours ago, SteveVa said:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Judah Cohen's great write up about what awaits us for the rest of the winter. In summary he says the winter is at the crossroads, we're certainly flipping to mild/warm after the first week of Jan, but it's still TBD whether the flip is permanent or transient. He also sees a possibility that this winter pulls a 13-14, where numerous weak disruptions of the PV lead to a colder pattern for the east. However, he notes that the models currently support the idea that the flip will be somewhat permanent. 

 

[WEATHER53]

43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

How much warning did the models give for the 1996 snowstorm? 

Here's an interesting factoid ...

1996 full moon Jan 5 2052z

1999 full moon Jan 2 0251z

2018 full moon Jan 2 0225z

My thesis is that the full moon (at this time in January coming shortly after another significant energy peak, northern declination maximum) has energy to provide to the atmosphere, it's not enough energy to shape the flow but whatever factors are shaping the flow, the full moon energy hits the provided set-up and develops a strong low there. Of course that's just another way of saying where the 500 mb flow is conducive, a storm will form. But this is partly about timing.

Those are not the only examples and I have some data analysis to show a significant effect. But in a warm pattern the effect will be in the Midwest to northern Great Lakes so you would expect warmer than average temperatures and rain with full moon during that sort of set-up (which we don't have here, think it was the case last full moon in early December). 

I too believe in full moon amplification 

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I've read a little chatter about strato and how it may be sending a wave that would help in January, but really havent heard much since we all started to laser in on the upcoming period that is rather suspect right now.  I know very little except that its usually a 30 ish day lag from when peturbed.  I know it sounds like I'm reaching, but wouldnt that potentially help to reload the AO/EPO? 

You can keep it really simple. That's what I do. TT has 10mb temp and height plots. Here's the super easy to follow tips:

- big blue concentric ball = favors +AO (think 2013-14)

- elongated or kidney bean shaped vortex = disturbed strat pv so less negative influence but the troposphere rules the AO domain 

- split strat pv into 2 pieces = favors HL blocking but not 1:1 correlation by any means and it needs to stay split. We've seen many split strat pv's re-consolidate quickly 

- split/disturbed/displaced + AN temps in the strat = blocking is likely but sometimes Europe gets the cold instead of the conus. 

It gets very technical and way above my head beyond this. Ultimately you want the strat pv to be weak in any shape and not centered over the pole. 

Also, a strong, cold, pole centered strat pv does not mean we can't have a -AO. The trop can do what it wants sometimes. 

 The strat has been pretty cold and consolidated/strong all winter so far this year. Not much help from above. If that changes there is a lag before the troposphere responds. 

 

Eta:  I forgot the most imortant tip of them all...when you hear lots of chatter in Jan about the strat or needing a SSW event it means winter in the east is in big trouble. THAT is a 1:1 correlation 

 

[Bob Chill]

51 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Reposting this from the SE forum, I think y'all might find it interesting amid the chatter for possible reload later in Jan.

I gotta be blunt and honest here...I've been reading Cohen's blog for 4 years and I'm not impressed. He took credit for the SAI causing a cold east in 13-14 but it was a raging positive AO year. An utter failure of the index and what it's supposed to support. Instead of just saying the SAI sucked (which it did) he publicly said that he correctly predicted the cold in the east. I call total BS. 

I just read the entire update and it's a long wordy way of saying he doesn't know. The 3 options for the rest of winter are cold/-AO, warm/+AO, or cold because of the epo even if the AO is positive. Any of us here can predict that. Lol. Cohen added the 13-14 option in the blog. Really dude? He didn't make a call, covered all bases, and will be right by default. 

I did like the part about what mechanism in the strat and trop can cause a flip to cold/blocking. That was informative. He also said that were running out of time for strat help and we'll know in the next couple weeks. My guess is it doesn't happen only becuase it hasn't happened since 2010-11. I wouldn't bet against that right now so for me it and easy call and I hope I'm dead wrong. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta be blunt and honest here...I've been reading Cohen's blog for 4 years and I'm not impressed. He took credit for the SAI causing a cold east in 13-14 but it was a raging positive AO year. An utter failure of the index and what it's supposed to support. Instead of just saying the SAI sucked (which it did) he publicly said that he correctly predicted the cold in the east. I call total BS. 

I just read the entire update and it's a long wordy way of saying he doesn't know. The 3 options for the rest of winter are cold/-AO, warm/+AO, or cold because of the epo even if the AO is positive. Any of us here can predict that. Lol. Cohen added the 13-14 option in the blog. Really dude? He didn't make a call, covered all bases, and will be right by default. 

I did like the part about what mechanism in the strat and trop can cause a flip to cold/blocking. That was informative. He also said that were running out of time for strat help and we'll know in the next couple weeks. My guess is it doesn't happen only becuase it hasn't happened since 2010-11. I wouldn't bet against that right now so for me it and easy call and I hope I'm dead wrong. 

Agree. You read his stuff, and he always seems overly (intentionally) ambiguous. I wouldn't want to call the guy a fraud, so I wont. lol.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta be blunt and honest here...I've been reading Cohen's blog for 4 years and I'm not impressed. He took credit for the SAI causing a cold east in 13-14 but it was a raging positive AO year. An utter failure of the index and what it's supposed to support. Instead of just saying the SAI sucked (which it did) he publicly said that he correctly predicted the cold in the east. I call total BS. 

I just read the entire update and it's a long wordy way of saying he doesn't know. The 3 options for the rest of winter are cold/-AO, warm/+AO, or cold because of the epo even if the AO is positive. Any of us here can predict that. Lol. Cohen added the 13-14 option in the blog. Really dude? He didn't make a call, covered all bases, and will be right by default. 

I did like the part about what mechanism in the strat and trop can cause a flip to cold/blocking. That was informative. He also said that were running out of time for strat help and we'll know in the next couple weeks. My guess is it doesn't happen only becuase it hasn't happened since 2010-11. I wouldn't bet against that right now so for me it and easy call and I hope I'm dead wrong. 

I agree with your assessment of his m.o. and history. The guy just hypes and hypes and contorts truth to fit his agenda. Internet parlor tricks is all he's good at and not accurately predicting the weather. 

[Cobalt]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta be blunt and honest here...I've been reading Cohen's blog for 4 years and I'm not impressed. He took credit for the SAI causing a cold east in 13-14 but it was a raging positive AO year. An utter failure of the index and what it's supposed to support. Instead of just saying the SAI sucked (which it did) he publicly said that he correctly predicted the cold in the east. I call total BS. 

I just read the entire update and it's a long wordy way of saying he doesn't know. The 3 options for the rest of winter are cold/-AO, warm/+AO, or cold because of the epo even if the AO is positive. Any of us here can predict that. Lol. Cohen added the 13-14 option in the blog. Really dude? He didn't make a call, covered all bases, and will be right by default. 

I did like the part about what mechanism in the strat and trop can cause a flip to cold/blocking. That was informative. He also said that were running out of time for strat help and we'll know in the next couple weeks. My guess is it doesn't happen only becuase it hasn't happened since 2010-11. I wouldn't bet against that right now so for me it and easy call and I hope I'm dead wrong. 

I see where you're coming from. Pretty sure he's "predicted" cold and snowy ever since winter of 2011-12, and while snowy has fit the description 3 of those times, cold has only happened twice. Always remember from the CWG articles that talk about him. While I want him to be right, I don't put any weight into his predictions. 

[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You can keep it really simple. That's what I do. TT has 10mb temp and height plots. Here's the super easy to follow tips:

- big blue concentric ball = favors +AO (think 2013-14)

- elongated or kidney bean shaped vortex = disturbed strat pv so less negative influence but the troposphere rules the AO domain 

- split strat pv into 2 pieces = favors HL blocking but not 1:1 correlation by any means and it needs to stay split. We've seen many split strat pv's re-consolidate quickly 

- split/disturbed/displaced + AN temps in the strat = blocking is likely but sometimes Europe gets the cold instead of the conus. 

It gets very technical and way above my head beyond this. Ultimately you want the strat pv to be weak in any shape and not centered over the pole. 

Also, a strong, cold, pole centered strat pv does not mean we can't have a -AO. The trop can do what it wants sometimes. 

 The strat has been pretty cold and consolidated/strong all winter so far this year. Not much help from above. If that changes there is a lag before the troposphere responds. 

 

Eta:  I forgot the most imortant tip of them all...when you hear lots of chatter in Jan about the strat or needing a SSW event it means winter in the east is in big trouble. THAT is a 1:1 correlation 

 

Thx Man. Appreciated the feedback. I knew stretching/peturbing is a good thing and that the downwelling sometimes takes a while and that Europe sometimes gets the cold pool and sometimes us. 

Yeah guess I’m looking for a glimmer of something (but still am not totally convinced this next couple weeks is full on ratter). 

I know u/we r bummed but we’ll get some fun. You really have been a great read and appreciate the convo with some of us B treamers. Learned lots but lots to learn. Keep it up. 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thx Man. Appreciated the feedback. I knew stretching/peturbing is a good thing and that the downwelling sometimes takes a while and that Europe sometimes gets the cold pool and sometimes us. 

Yeah guess I’m looking for a glimmer of something (but still am not totally convinced this next couple weeks is full on ratter). 

I know u/we r bummed but we’ll get some fun. You really have been a great read and appreciate the convo with some of us B treamers. Learned lots but lots to learn. Keep it up. 

Completely agree with you. We may get a big storm on Friday, but we've already scored snow so far in December, which is something the past 3 Decembers haven't done. I'm still optimistic, especially since we have 3 whole months of potential winter weather events, and tons of tracking. Like most winters, we'll have our fair share of reverse busts and actual busts. Cold and dry is better than warm and wet, since we actually have potential in the next 3 weeks. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Completely agree with you. We may get a big storm on Friday, but we've already scored snow so far in December, which is something the past 3 Decembers haven't done. I'm still optimistic, especially since we have 3 whole months of potential winter weather events, and tons of tracking. Like most winters, we'll have our fair share of reverse busts and actual busts. Cold and dry is better than warm and wet, since we actually have potential in the next 3 weeks. 

Wow you are a pillar of optimism.  Must be youth.  You haven't been chewed up and spit out of the jaws of life perhaps.  I used to rely on the 7 day outlook on TWC for my LR weather fix...20 past the hour.  Now we have everything the pros have.  Miss the days when I knew less about this hobby.  I hope you are right but there is an old saying on this board that snow delayed is snow denied. Enough 10 day threats and it's April.  It's fun to play the tracking game but even better to win eventually.  Maybe,we,will.  Maybe.

[pasnownut]

It’s just crazy how we see good periods coming and then the struggle to live up to expectations. But in the contrary advertised warm periods can also fall short. With us entering this cold period I feel it far to early to be writing anything off. MJO looked great last week now not so much. My guess next week Long range looks different than what we’ve seeing now. That’s not wishcasting or being overly optimistic, that’s just being a realist. 

[mitchnick]

Apparently the red tag over at the Phillywx.com site was full of Christmas turkey cr@p with his abridged version of the weeklies.  Read this page of the thread.

http://www.phillywx.com/topic/894-cfs-ggem-jma-and-euro-weeklies-thread/?page=25