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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:


There was some activity in South Carolina, but that was about it


.

It was trying desperately to get the precip over the TN mountains and KY. I thought it was much more promising, seeing as how it had the darn low headed toward Cuba at 12z. With a low that strong in the Gulf as predicted you know the presentation of the surface would theoretically be better, albeit I’m sure the column is going to be SUPER dry prior to any precip arriving.

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob Chill check out the NYE event tho. Juicing up and looking much more promising on 18z run. Did the Euro even have an event for this timeframe at 12z?

It didn't and neither did the ensemble run. It's far enough out in time to not hold any model to anything. If we can get something to actually hold inside of 120 hours I'll play along. We seem to be in a period where no model can get anything right synoptically beyond 120 hours. 

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Now on the GFS a big ridge is building out west and storms are spinning into the Aleutian Islands. Probably also supports a good -NAO 1-2 weeks later. Siberian ridge was originally the idea for short lived +PNA, and as the driver was also the one to tear it up leading to a warmer pattern, but this model run looks stronger, like maybe the North Pacific will take dominance. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The reason the early Jan storm struggles to get anything here is becuase upper level flow is flat as a pancake from St Louis to the middle of the Atlantic. We need uphill. If you want to track anything, look for the isobars to turn uphill towards us. Flat and downhill = no good precip. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png

Check out 186.  Close

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It didn't and neither did the ensemble run. It's far enough out in time to not hold any model to anything. If we can get something to actually hold inside of 120 hours I'll play along. We seem to be in a period where no model can get anything right synoptically beyond 120 hours. 

Ugh! Can we buy a damn storm at this point?! We can all contribute to the cause. I am literally flabbergasted still that every model and ensemble from the past week had promising setups and then literally poof it went. 

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The system does amplify but it's too late and ots. Move this digging shortwave west about 200 miles and we get destroyed. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_32.png

The most imortant things to watch happen at 500mb. The gfs gave the impression that the surface was tasty but it wasn't nearly as close as the surface progs lead you to believe. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The system does amplify but it's too late and ots. Move this digging shortwave west about 200 miles and we get destroyed. 

 

The most imortant things to watch happen at 500mb. The gfs gave the impression that the surface was tasty but it wasn't nearly as close as the surface progs lead you to believe. 

IYO, do you feel like there is any chance this could trend in our way? (ie: last nights 0z)

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

IYO, do you feel like there is any chance this could trend in our way? (ie: last nights 0z)

I think the much more imortant question is whether or not the shortwave exists at all. Seriously too. Models can't get this flow right out in time. We're banging our heads here. It's like funny as hell and not funny at all.  Lol. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I agree. It was close. No doubt. But let's fookin get something to hold inside of d5 for god sakes. The med range has been BRUTAL lately. I won't believe a single thing any model spits out until its inside of 120. 

It's incredible how easy it was looking 2 days ago. But when you have every model suite showing what they were, who da' thunk they were all wrong. By the way,  take a look at the CFS2 monthlies. Precip pattern look vaguely familiar?  Lol

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the much more imortant question is whether or not the shortwave exists at all. Seriously too. Models can't get this flow right out in time. We're banging our heads here. It's like funny as hell and not funny at all.  Lol. 

You may be right and probably are but it's picking up on something. 

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now that's something not often said here...wishing for a weaker Arctic HP.  At least I will get some shut eye tonight.  Nothing to track and no reason to stay awake.  

You'll be up for the 0z runs, you know it. lol You'll at least stay up for my beloved Iggles, right?

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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

This is better than a snow map.  Make up your own ratios. Poor leesburg though.

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/maryland/ecmwf_t_precip_maryland_150.png

Would be typical for this year though. Nothing worse than everyone around you getting decent snow while you get screwed AGAIN. I know its fantasy BS. But as promising as this pattern looked just a couple of days ago I am feeling somewhat frustrated

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I would remain optimistic for eventual upgrades for Jan 1-2 time frame, the models have little of substance to work on now but the whole west-central theater is so ill-defined that only minor changes could start off a better cycle of maps from the general origin of Colorado to Texas in about 48-72h. There is a 500 mb trough with multiple weak centers to the north of the Great Lakes and prairies, which could evolve into a suitable organizing low. The current drift out to sea for the Jan 1-2 energy peak could quite easily reverse and move tighter into the coast. And there is no shortage of cold air feeding into the region. 

Plenty of time left for improvements and I suspect these will start showing up overnight and tomorrow. 

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30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

You may be right and probably are but it's picking up on something. 

It's going to take a heck of a lot of compelling deep analysis for me to believe the gfs is picking up on anything real out that far other than it will probably be cold. Have you not been here the last week? Lol

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2 hours ago, WVclimo said:

It's the "Circle Of Death" on the Wheeler and Hendon diagram, meaning the inner circle of the chart that denotes that the wave has lost its amplitude.  The farther away from the center of the circle, the stronger the MJO signal is.

image.gif.d83594b9052f8769c2dde9764541072c.gif

And this is just a nightmare compared to last weeks MJO forecast. In phase 8 for two frikin days than COD. The wek prior looked almost identical to this.  Lesson learned about the MJO forecast. It is most likely useless

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