AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The pattern just holds and reloads at day 6... unreal. It looks like the Stratosphere Polar Vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 [mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] check out the NYE event tho. Juicing up and looking much more promising on 18z run. Did the Euro even have an event for this timeframe at 12z?There was some activity in South Carolina, but that was about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: There was some activity in South Carolina, but that was about it . It was trying desperately to get the precip over the TN mountains and KY. I thought it was much more promising, seeing as how it had the darn low headed toward Cuba at 12z. With a low that strong in the Gulf as predicted you know the presentation of the surface would theoretically be better, albeit I’m sure the column is going to be SUPER dry prior to any precip arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @Bob Chill check out the NYE event tho. Juicing up and looking much more promising on 18z run. Did the Euro even have an event for this timeframe at 12z? It didn't and neither did the ensemble run. It's far enough out in time to not hold any model to anything. If we can get something to actually hold inside of 120 hours I'll play along. We seem to be in a period where no model can get anything right synoptically beyond 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Now on the GFS a big ridge is building out west and storms are spinning into the Aleutian Islands. Probably also supports a good -NAO 1-2 weeks later. Siberian ridge was originally the idea for short lived +PNA, and as the driver was also the one to tear it up leading to a warmer pattern, but this model run looks stronger, like maybe the North Pacific will take dominance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The reason the early Jan storm struggles to get anything here is becuase upper level flow is flat as a pancake from St Louis to the middle of the Atlantic. We need uphill. If you want to track anything, look for the isobars to turn uphill towards us. Flat and downhill = no good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It's good for phasing though, stronger the storm better the chances on an exponential scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The reason the early Jan storm struggles to get anything here is becuase upper level flow is flat as a pancake from St Louis to the middle of the Atlantic. We need uphill. If you want to track anything, look for the isobars to turn uphill towards us. Flat and downhill = no good precip. Check out 186. Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It didn't and neither did the ensemble run. It's far enough out in time to not hold any model to anything. If we can get something to actually hold inside of 120 hours I'll play along. We seem to be in a period where no model can get anything right synoptically beyond 120 hours. Ugh! Can we buy a damn storm at this point?! We can all contribute to the cause. I am literally flabbergasted still that every model and ensemble from the past week had promising setups and then literally poof it went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The system does amplify but it's too late and ots. Move this digging shortwave west about 200 miles and we get destroyed. The most imortant things to watch happen at 500mb. The gfs gave the impression that the surface was tasty but it wasn't nearly as close as the surface progs lead you to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The system does amplify but it's too late and ots. Move this digging shortwave west about 200 miles and we get destroyed. The most imortant things to watch happen at 500mb. The gfs gave the impression that the surface was tasty but it wasn't nearly as close as the surface progs lead you to believe. IYO, do you feel like there is any chance this could trend in our way? (ie: last nights 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I think there will be cold air problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Check out 186. Close I agree. It was close. No doubt. But let's fookin get something to hold inside of d5 for god sakes. The med range has been BRUTAL lately. I won't believe a single thing any model spits out until its inside of 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: IYO, do you feel like there is any chance this could trend in our way? (ie: last nights 0z) I think the much more imortant question is whether or not the shortwave exists at all. Seriously too. Models can't get this flow right out in time. We're banging our heads here. It's like funny as hell and not funny at all. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. It was close. No doubt. But let's fookin get something to hold inside of d5 for god sakes. The med range has been BRUTAL lately. I won't believe a single thing any model spits out until its inside of 120. It's incredible how easy it was looking 2 days ago. But when you have every model suite showing what they were, who da' thunk they were all wrong. By the way, take a look at the CFS2 monthlies. Precip pattern look vaguely familiar? Lol http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Check out 186. Close Nice snowhole over both metro areas on 1/1-2/2018. The op shows a neat little pivot that leaves us snowless, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the much more imortant question is whether or not the shortwave exists at all. Seriously too. Models can't get this flow right out in time. We're banging our heads here. It's like funny as hell and not funny at all. Lol. You may be right and probably are but it's picking up on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Nice snowhole over both metro areas on 1/1-2/2018. The op shows a neat little pivot that leaves us snowless, for now. Yet amazing cold thought 384. You gotta laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Speaking of long range futility and head banging, the eps weeklies are rolling. Lets see if we can add a late lump of coal to the stockings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm hoping that 1061 hp turns into 1040 by NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm hoping that 1061 hp turns into 1040 by NYE. Now that's something not often said here...wishing for a weaker Arctic HP. At least I will get some shut eye tonight. Nothing to track and no reason to stay awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Now that's something not often said here...wishing for a weaker Arctic HP. At least I will get some shut eye tonight. Nothing to track and no reason to stay awake. You'll be up for the 0z runs, you know it. lol You'll at least stay up for my beloved Iggles, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: This is better than a snow map. Make up your own ratios. Poor leesburg though. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/maryland/ecmwf_t_precip_maryland_150.png Would be typical for this year though. Nothing worse than everyone around you getting decent snow while you get screwed AGAIN. I know its fantasy BS. But as promising as this pattern looked just a couple of days ago I am feeling somewhat frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I would remain optimistic for eventual upgrades for Jan 1-2 time frame, the models have little of substance to work on now but the whole west-central theater is so ill-defined that only minor changes could start off a better cycle of maps from the general origin of Colorado to Texas in about 48-72h. There is a 500 mb trough with multiple weak centers to the north of the Great Lakes and prairies, which could evolve into a suitable organizing low. The current drift out to sea for the Jan 1-2 energy peak could quite easily reverse and move tighter into the coast. And there is no shortage of cold air feeding into the region. Plenty of time left for improvements and I suspect these will start showing up overnight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: You may be right and probably are but it's picking up on something. It's going to take a heck of a lot of compelling deep analysis for me to believe the gfs is picking up on anything real out that far other than it will probably be cold. Have you not been here the last week? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: You'll be up for the 0z runs, you know it. lol You'll at least stay up for my beloved Iggles, right? Yes...only for him but after 6z comes out I am hitting the sack...I am firm on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Speaking of long range futility and head banging, the eps weeklies are rolling. Lets see if we can add a late lump of coal to the stockings. If the weeklies say warm and dry I might get a little excited for cold and snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 hours ago, WVclimo said: It's the "Circle Of Death" on the Wheeler and Hendon diagram, meaning the inner circle of the chart that denotes that the wave has lost its amplitude. The farther away from the center of the circle, the stronger the MJO signal is. And this is just a nightmare compared to last weeks MJO forecast. In phase 8 for two frikin days than COD. The wek prior looked almost identical to this. Lesson learned about the MJO forecast. It is most likely useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's going to take a heck of a lot of compelling deep analysis for me to believe the gfs is picking up on anything real out that far other than it will probably be cold. Have you not been here the last week? Lol Now you're starting to sound like my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the weeklies say warm and dry I might get a little excited for cold and snow prospects. Get excited. Per Phillywx.com site they cancel winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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