Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[stormtracker]

I'm going to wait until the Euro.  One more bad run and it may be time

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah that event still has hope.  The 28th-29th looks dead.

I think the late week deal has a chance to come back as a light to moderate event. Lets go weenie mode here- A one-two punch. Snow on snow. Its (maybe) happening!

[87storms]

the thurs/fri system looks like it's going against a retreating high, but the storm that's actually a week away looks more favorable with a possible banana high?  

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 I am in on the day 8 deal. NYE/NYD. This is the one. 

Usually we struggle with snow at the beginning of a pattern change.  Next Sunday, Monday actually makes more sense. 

[Heisy]

That 2nd event has some STJ energy that helps it out...maybe today is the kick in the nuts & we get a nice Christmas present with the 12z runs tomorrow. 

[WhiteoutWX]

The 2nd event at 500 mb looks extremely similar to me as the Thu/Fri event was looking just a couple days ago. 

[Bob Chill]

After what we are going through with the Friday deal, looking down the road from that and feeling good about it is borderline insanity. 

Eta: what WhiteoutWX just said...lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

After what we are going through with the Friday deal, looking down the road from that and feeling good about it is borderline insanity. 

Correct.

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think the late week deal has a chance to come back as a light to moderate event. Lets go weenie mode here- A one-two punch. Snow on snow. Its (maybe) happening!

There was a lot of hype in Feb 2014 for an event on the 10th, that trended OTS.  We ended up getting an awesome storm on the 13th with the system behind it. Hopefully that is what happens here.

[mitchnick]

I'm not merry with anything on the 12z runs, but we're still 5 days +/- away and the storm is progged to our south. If there is only 1 thing we  should have learned in doing this routine for years is that the models over strengthen the block at this range (which is why 5-day snow storms never happen) and that's why storms always come north.  Remain calm. All is good.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

After what we are going through with the Friday deal, looking down the road from that and feeling good about it is borderline insanity. 

Lol. Very true. I still think one of these Pac. Short waves have to deliver before the pattern breaks down. It would take awful luck not to atleast get a light to moderate event

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not merry with anything on the 12z runs, but we're still 5 days +/- away and the storm is progged to our south. If there is only 1 thing we  should have learned anything in doing this routine for years is that the models over strengthen the block at this range (which is why 5-day snow storms never happen) and that's why storms always come north.  Remain calm. All is good.

Yea, I said something similar. A big dog is looking less likely. All models are showing poorly timed streams. Getting the southern wave here (even if sheared) is easily within the realm. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

After what we are going through with the Friday deal, looking down the road from that and feeling good about it is borderline insanity. 

Eta: what WhiteoutWX just said...lol

Nah come on, time to get sucked back in. Decent chance 18z is gonna have an HECS for New Years. Xmas eve happy hour, lol.

[Rtd208]

Whiners will whine, weenies will ween, Merry Christmas to all snow we can dream. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nah come on, time to get sucked back in. Decent chance 18z is gonna have an HECS for New Years. Xmas eve happy hour, lol.

Yea, it's the playbook. Gotta stick with it. Then we both know how it plays out...cancel Friday and look down the road...then starting Tuesday the Fri deal starts its 6 hourly tick north...and on Saturday we're posting obs, pics, and shoveling snow. Amiright?

[Amped]

UKMET caved in. Only good news is it looks like it's ejecting the Baja low  at 144hrs, this will be good for the NYE event.

[Heisy]

UKIE is way OTS...nothing like 00z. Ugh

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

UKIE is way OTS...nothing like 00z. Ugh

It doesn’t even give anything to SC or GA 

[Bob Chill]

Welp, today officially sucks. I'll be pretty surprised if the euro shows anything different. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Welp, today officially sucks. I'll be pretty surprised if the euro shows anything different. 

This is about the window where you would rather see this happen though vs at 84-96 hours.  At least there is a chance this comes back 

[WhiteoutWX]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is about the window where you would rather see this happen though vs at 84-96 hours.  At least there is a chance this comes back 

The fact that models are still bouncing around this much gives me hope but was really looking for some positive trends at 12z. The difference between storm and no storm is extremely subtle, which is frustrating but also means we aren't done yet. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is about the window where you would rather see this happen though vs at 84-96 hours.  At least there is a chance this comes back 

True, but we can probably just about write off a big dog.  If the streams were going play nice we would most likely have some agreement there and not full agreement that they won't play nice. We can back our way into a light/mod event at least 

[87storms]

i'm interested only because we have cold air in place, our most difficult ingredient (for snow that is...cold rain occurs more naturally here). throughout the year we always get those events that show up a few days out and end up giving us enough precip that probably would be a decent winter event (even if not the great dane).

[ErinInTheSky]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is about the window where you would rather see this happen though vs at 84-96 hours.  At least there is a chance this comes back 

And at least most solutions still show December snow, even if it’s 1-3”. If that verifies I can easily get out of December with 7”, which is as I understand it, above climo.

[aldie 22]

Any 60's showing up in the long range? The MJO getting a flat in lanes 3-7?

[midatlanticweather]

Lucy did it again. Dang it. Hoping for a Christmas miracle and the Grinch's heart to grow three sizes! 

[osfan24]

Ukie completely folding has me feeling pretty negative about the whole thing. Will still track through at least the runs on Tuesday to see if there is any sign of resurgence but this is a bit disappointing.

[Heisy]

As someone else mentioned the UKIE does show some energy in the Southwest, the 12z GFS had some STJ energy interjected into the New Years event, maybe that ends up being the big ticket item, though it sucks to move on to the next one. 

[Interstate]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not merry with anything on the 12z runs, but we're still 5 days +/- away and the storm is progged to our south. If there is only 1 thing we  should have learned in doing this routine for years is that the models over strengthen the block at this range (which is why 5-day snow storms never happen) and that's why storms always come north.  Remain calm. All is good.

We will know more on Tuesday when the SW actually makes it to the North West coast

[pasnownut]

as someone suggested the Friday storm going through the shredder....and the panic room is suddenly booked.

I ask you to be reminded of how many cold episodes have come as modeled?  We typically modify somewhat which would surely help this system to "come back".

something to ponder in the coming days.