aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I didn't feel like wasting time going into detail. After Jan 5 or so is ambiguous. That hasn't changed. Plenty of hope it doesn't go bad right away. But most of the qpf comes way out in time and a lot of it's from rainers on members that do break things down. My point was simply it's not a good run and there wasn't a good signal for snow. He was chasing false hope. I didn't think I needed to go into great depth of why but since you wanna be snarky about it... The guidance was wrong about the stj. It's gone now. Without that feature this becomes a cold dry pattern. Ehh. It is what it is. Like bob is saying our best bet now is northern stream scraps. Those are frustrating because typically we get to watch north is us do much better. Oh well. I'm less frustrated by the pattern then I am those that use every long range busy to pile on with the drumbeat of "models suck" "long range forecasting is a waste" crap. Suddenly the typical people come out of the woodwork every time. Yet they are all in the long range thread. What do you want in here??? Posts about what the chicken bones and wholly worms say? Or do you simply not want this thread to exist? None of us that spend time on this claim it's high probability. I never make promises. I know I'm gonna lose more then win. But the losses don't make me quit. I just get back up and try again. I enjoy the chase and the challenge. Yes I get frustrated but I don't get defeated. But this thread becomes over populated with "models suck" " we shouldn't ever believe them" crap every time this happens. Yet everyone will be back for the next model run. I guess my question is...why is this guidance right? It doesn't really matter though, you and Bob do an awesome job trying figure these things out. I'm impressed with how you guys have basically taught yourself how to analyze these things. I'm just in a ballbusting mood...time to start having fun with it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But this thread becomes over populated with "models suck" " we shouldn't ever believe them" crap every time this happens. Yet everyone will be back for the next model run. Don't forget that it's a 1 way street with that. I don't recall a single "models suck" or "why bother it's a waste of time" post leading into the 12/9 event. In reality, all ops and ens blew a med range forecast really bad but it was high 5s and spiked balls. Lol. If you really care about accuracy then it works both ways. We only get the prolific sh!t posts when the models don't show what they want. I do take issue with that. We root for models to "bust" far more often than them to be right because we only want one thing. And that one thing is fairly rare and hard to come by every single year except for a few lucky ones. And let's give some credit where it's due too. Models can absolutely nail 5 or 7 or 10 day forecasts far more often than is realized. Just nobody cares about fair weather or rain. Lol Eta: and my critical post above is very fair. It was a fail covering a large area of the country over a long period of time. That's a true bust. Not just cuz my yard got hosed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Don't forget that it's a 1 way street with that. I don't recall a single "models suck" or "why bother it's a waste of time" post leading into the 12/9 event. In reality, all ops and ens blew a med range forecast really bad but it was high 5s and spiked balls. Lol. If you really care about accuracy then it works both ways. We only get the prolific sh!t posts when the models don't show what they want. I do take issue with that. We root for models to "bust" far more often than them to be right because we only want one thing. And that one thing is fairly rare and hard to come by every single year except for a few lucky ones. And let's give some credit where it's due too. Models can absolutely nail 5 or 7 or 10 day forecasts far more often than is realized. Just nobody cares about fair weather or rain. Lol Eta: and my critical post above is very fair. It was a fail covering a large area of the country over a long period of time. That's a true bust. Not just cuz my yard got hosed Completely agree with you there. I remember the talk about 3 or 4 days ago saying that the models sniff out the big ones early, but some of our potential "big events" are lost in the medium range before coming up dry. I'm already happy with where I Stand for December. 3.1" beats the last 3 Decembers combined. We still have about 90 days to make something happen, and so hopefully we'll get our chances. It's all about chance with these cold patterns. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Last week the MJO was forecast to maintain its amplitude through Phase 8 and into phase 1. The models read that as favoring a STJ from the tropical Pacific aimed at the southern US. Ji commented about a Nino look, which was dead-on. When that wave failed to maintain its strength and dove into the COD, the long range progs lost the idea of the moisture feed and we have reverted to a more typical Nina look. Forecasts now call for the next MJO wave to emerge back over the Indian Ocean which would probably favor a reshuffle of the pattern after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Last week the MJO was forecast to maintain its amplitude through Phase 8 and into phase 1. The models read that as favoring a STJ from the tropical Pacific aimed at the southern US. Ji commented about a Nino look, which was dead-on. When that wave failed to maintain its strength and dove into the COD, the long range progs lost the idea of the moisture feed and we have reverted to a more typical Nina look. Forecasts now call for the next MJO wave to emerge back over the Indian Ocean which would probably favor a reshuffle of the pattern after next week. While I don't disagree with your post at all because the mjo is built right into ens forcasting, I do want to point out one thing in this case. The stj influence was from a closed ull/trough off baja feeding into the conus. That feature is still there and so is the moisture stream associated with. What went wrong is the connection isn't happening. From what I see, the connection is being lost because the western ridge amplitude is different than first progged. Instead of tall and narrow it's short and fat so it's getting in the way instead of helping. Can a shift in mjo amplitude really connect to amplitude and shape of a ridge along the west coast? Is it that specific? I have no idea personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Fwiw- eps still hanging onto the d10 miller a. Believe at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fwiw- eps still hanging onto the d10 miller a. Believe at your own risk Decent uptick in the snowfall mean between Jan. 4 and Jan 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 37 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I guess my question is...why is this guidance right? It doesn't really matter though, you and Bob do an awesome job trying figure these things out. I'm impressed with how you guys have basically taught yourself how to analyze these things. I'm just in a ballbusting mood...time to start having fun with it now Fair point. My answer is 1...because we're now way closer in time so it's more likely to be correct. 2...it fits typical Nina climo. Perhaps we all wanted to believe some big juiced stj was coming but that's not typical. For those reasons I buy the dry look. Doesn't mean no snow but the advertised look was way easier then how we're gonna have to get it done now as for your ball busting I don't mind and I don't take anything personally but I do push back when I don't agree that's all. Nothing negative. I don't get bent out of shape over friendly debate on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 You know what they say about d10 snowstorms! 9th time's a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @Bob Chill agree about both points. And it's not as if this change wasn't something we couldn't see. I made a post about how I didn't want to see it trend 2 days ago and that's exactly what happened. This option was hidden within the pattern. We wouldn't have even known the basics of what this could look like without numerical guidance. That said the stj part was a massive bust. Even in my nightmare I just envisioned the stj being suppressed and the northern stream phasing to our north. Not the stj going mia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 My understanding is that high pressure ridges form north and northeast of the areas of greatest convection in the tropics. So when MJO is in phase 8, particularly when it’s a strong wave, we would expect west coast ridging to build. I am sure there is more to it than just my rudimentary understanding but this sure seems like a case where the models were initially banking on the expectation of forcing where we want it to deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Decent uptick in the snowfall mean between Jan. 4 and Jan 7. And mean qpf d9-12 is .5-.6 through the whole region [walks slowly backwards and gently closes door] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 46 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Last week the MJO was forecast to maintain its amplitude through Phase 8 and into phase 1. The models read that as favoring a STJ from the tropical Pacific aimed at the southern US. Ji commented about a Nino look, which was dead-on. When that wave failed to maintain its strength and dove into the COD, the long range progs lost the idea of the moisture feed and we have reverted to a more typical Nina look. Forecasts now call for the next MJO wave to emerge back over the Indian Ocean which would probably favor a reshuffle of the pattern after next week. What does COD stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, wkd said: What does COD stand for? It's the "Circle Of Death" on the Wheeler and Hendon diagram, meaning the inner circle of the chart that denotes that the wave has lost its amplitude. The farther away from the center of the circle, the stronger the MJO signal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And mean qpf d9-12 is .5-.6 through the whole region [walks slowly backwards and gently closes door] Better run instead. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, WVclimo said: It's the "Circle Of Death" on the Wheeler and Hendon diagram, meaning the inner circle of the chart that denotes that the wave has lost its amplitude. The farther away from the center of the circle, the stronger the MJO signal is. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 A few days ago CPC had above normal precip for the eastern half of the country, on both their 6-10 and 8-14 day panels. All the ensembles were saying this. Of course we can't expect ensembles to get synoptic features correct 7 days out, but they should be able to diagnose whether a pattern is dry vs. wet. We should try to learn from this data point. What exactly went wrong? What was the major feature that the ensembles "saw" a few days ago, that led them to forecast a juicy STJ, that in its absence has resulted in a bone dry pattern? Was it simply just the matter of a flatter ridge out west? It seems that there must be other factors involved as well but we need to identify what went wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18z GFS snow Friday? Hmmmmm. ETA: Meh. Light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 That storm on Friday really explodes off the coast. Gives us a few mood flakes but it still looks very close to impacting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: That storm on Friday really explodes off the coast. Gives us a few mood flakes but it still looks very close to impacting us. Give us half inch of mood flakes. Will take anything and I mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: That storm on Friday really explodes off the coast. Gives us a few mood flakes but it still looks very close to impacting us. Could easily trend back NW. Plenty of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I believe the high will not be as strong as depicted, still strong and very cold, but not as suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Could easily trend back NW. Plenty of time... Sure it can. Anything is possible if you hear the bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Could easily trend back NW. Plenty of time... Heights are a little bit better out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Tomorrow is not Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Could have a last minute trend like Dec 8-9. Different setup, but could happen. Not throwing in the towel yet for at least a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The southern stream is dead. I wonder because it usually takes big events to switch it on and off, will it be dead all Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: That storm on Friday really explodes off the coast. Gives us a few mood flakes but it still looks very close to impacting us. Look at the upper levels. The southern wave is suspect to even exist at this point. The gfs is last man standing. Euro/ukie/cmc have all abandoned the idea. But assuming it exists, this panel is not one that inspires any confidence in it doing anything for us. Our best shot (based on upper level support) would be light snow from the northern stream shortwave that barely digs under us. The southern wave is just a weak disturbance and being completely honest, I'm not even sure why the gfs shows it so strong with limited upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Tomorrow is not Friday lol! I know, it's forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @Bob Chill check out the NYE event tho. Juicing up and looking much more promising on 18z run. Did the Euro even have an event for this timeframe at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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