Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Euro might end up giving us a small bone. Check out that sw/ull at 120 in the nw. Come on man! We work hard for our money. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is all northern stream again. Zero southern wave 2 runs in a row. We get a light event. Lock it up Looks somewhat similar based on precip maps to UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 As to this event I don't think the high will be radiating down a monster 1050+ when it's in prime position. More like 1030-1035 and I guess that could help lessen the suppression the 700mb moisture transport that was to give us a major event was configured very poorly right from the beginning and is likely why the southern energy does not appear to be helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Check out that sw/ull at 120 in the nw. Come on man! We work hard for our money. Let's do this! we're due for a manitoba mauler...or just a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Mitch gets 2". Lol. With no ss running interference we can prob do ok with a good ns track. Euro is like 75 miles in track away from 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro might end up giving us a small bone. Even if that it misses on this run. there's room for it to trend west. The 28th-30th event has been dead for at least 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Check out that sw/ull at 120 in the nw. Come on man! We work hard for our money. Let's do this! Yep. Let's! Maps say 2". We win with that as pathetic as we do with northern stream events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro has 1-2" for DC somehow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The difficult part is whether they should be believed in light of what they showed a few days ago. Climo says they're probably correct now just as climo said they were probably wrong 2 days ago. But why use models if we're going strictly on climo? What a mess. Lol "Climo" is useful in knowing how things usually play out and keeping expectations in check. But climo isn't a forecast. Climo is just a bunch of anomalies averages together. Last Decembers torch wasn't climo. The January 2016 blizzard wasn't climo. Climo tells us that we don't win very often. But we do win from time to time and that's what keeps us playing the game. Not knowing when that next win is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'd take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Euro has 1-2" for DC somehow. lol It's a typical northern stream vort pass. Basically a clipper but originated in the pac nw. We get those sometimes. No room to spare this run. Need the elusive south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob ChiII 12z gefs is about rock bottom. Only about .25 qpf through Jan 3 and it comes .05 at a time from 4 threats none of which has enough support to be likely. Meaning even that .25 is a false signal and in reality their advertising complete dry for 10 days. Man they aren't right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This is better than a snow map. Make up your own ratios. Poor leesburg though. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122512/maryland/ecmwf_t_precip_maryland_150.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GEFS still manages mean of 1-1.2" of precip through day 15. Still below climo but it provides some chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Congrats Long Island (for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro tries to get something going D7. Looks anemic compared to GFS, but hey, it's there at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Merry Christmas and nice to be back. Models have done what they are engineered to do. Show all scenarios and then come confirmation time for the validity reference a 3,4,7 day depiction that showed the true final outcome and continue on with repeat cycle in the last week we've gone from 70 on Christmas to today's actual temps and 0-18" snowfall forecasts . Somewhere in the day after day depictions is one day at one 0z or 12z where there is a depiction that will ultimately confirm. i don't agree with the chastization of a few days ago that we are lucky to have 5 or 7+ day models because otherwise we would have nothing to look at Nothing to look at is a Good idea because there is Nothing to look at! Understanding that puts model viewing in a realistic sense rather than one anticipatory of correctness of depicted outcome Hope to post some obs soon. In our winter outlook we referenced in the 10-15 " snowfall prediction that we did not see any big events but rather front related blast throughs and and clippers rounding the base as 2-4" events. did it ever occur to you that modeling the atmosphere of the planet out hundreds of hours when we're missing data on much of the planet and oceans is simply difficult. First of all the partial differential equations we use aren't 100% accurate. We haven't figured out a way to completely model the atmosphere to exact precision. Their incomplete. Then add to that we don't have 100 percent of the data needed. We're missing information for parts of the planet. Then there are variables like solar radiation that can change at any moment. All of that is limiting the accuracy of these numerical predictions. So perhaps each model run is programmed to give us their best forecast to their limited abilities and because of all those factors listed above they simply show different outcomes run to run because small changes in the data input results in different outcomes. Or its some huge global conspiracy by every weather service both public and private to fool and frustrate weather weenies like us. I guess both are equally likely scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I'd take this. Aww horse****!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Now we root for more digging of the NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS still manages mean of 1-1.2" of precip through day 15. Still below climo but it provides some chances Almost all of it comes after Jan 4 when the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Almost all of it comes after Jan 4 when the pattern breaks down. What now it breaks down early? WTF are we supposed to believe haha!! Bob said a couple days ago the ensembles were the most weenie run of his life...then there was talk about hints the pattern wasnt breaking down..come on guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Almost all of it comes after Jan 4 when the pattern breaks down. Time to forget about everything other than the ns vort for late week. Big storms are all but off the table. Let's stick with what can work in a reasonable amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Almost all of it comes after Jan 4 when the pattern breaks down. Well that would fall in line with my idea of a potential larger storm on January 4th-6th. Just before the breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I'd take this. Being on the southwestern edge of a Northern stream system at day 5-6 is never a good thing. This better dig and trend more south or most of us will be looking at clear skies. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Except for the conspiracy part I'm with Tenman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Well that would fall in line with my idea of a potential larger storm on January 4th-6th. Just before the breakdown. Yes it’s all you on this one. I’m in the panic room for a while. This seems to be too much for me to comprehend. The only epic I see has the word failure after it. It’s easier mentally to fail when it’s warm like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Well that would fall in line with my idea of a potential larger storm on January 4th-6th. Just before the breakdown. EC 240 is trying hard. It's got a dumb luck cutoff in the perfect spot. And that P007, each have about a 1/100 chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What now it breaks down early? WTF are we supposed to believe haha!! Bob said a couple days ago the ensembles were the most weenie run of his life...then there was talk about hints the pattern wasnt breaking down..come on guys That was a couple days ago. This was very early this morning I'm throwing in the towel on trying to figure out things that aren't supposed to be figured out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This panel shows what I have the biggest issue with. The large swath in the deep south/se/tn valley was targeted for days upon days to be the hotspot for significant precip over the next 10 days. Not a single model or ensemble showed dry. Not even the JV lineup. I've been doing this for 10+ years and this is a pretty epic fail. Top 5 for sure. It could come back and end up being a wet period but man, look at all the areas that were progged to have high precip totals that don't even have a drop this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What now it breaks down early? WTF are we supposed to believe haha!! Bob said a couple days ago the ensembles were the most weenie run of his life...then there was talk about hints the pattern wasnt breaking down..come on guys I didn't feel like wasting time going into detail. After Jan 5 or so is ambiguous. That hasn't changed. Plenty of hope it doesn't go bad right away. But most of the qpf comes way out in time and a lot of it's from rainers on members that do break things down. My point was simply it's not a good run and there wasn't a good signal for snow. He was chasing false hope. I didn't think I needed to go into great depth of why but since you wanna be snarky about it... The guidance was wrong about the stj. It's gone now. Without that feature this becomes a cold dry pattern. Ehh. It is what it is. Like bob is saying our best bet now is northern stream scraps. Those are frustrating because typically we get to watch north is us do much better. Oh well. I'm less frustrated by the pattern then I am those that use every long range busy to pile on with the drumbeat of "models suck" "long range forecasting is a waste" crap. Suddenly the typical people come out of the woodwork every time. Yet they are all in the long range thread. What do you want in here??? Posts about what the chicken bones and wholly worms say? Or do you simply not want this thread to exist? None of us that spend time on this claim it's high probability. I never make promises. I know I'm gonna lose more then win. But the losses don't make me quit. I just get back up and try again. I enjoy the chase and the challenge. Yes I get frustrated but I don't get defeated. But this thread becomes over populated with "models suck" " we shouldn't ever believe them" crap every time this happens. Yet everyone will be back for the next model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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