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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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As to this event I don't think the high will be radiating down a monster 1050+ when it's in prime position. More like 1030-1035 and I guess that could help lessen the suppression

the 700mb moisture transport that was to give us a major event was configured very poorly right from the beginning and is likely why the southern energy does not appear to be helping 

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38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The difficult part is whether they should be believed in light of what they showed a few days ago.  Climo says they're probably correct now just as climo said they were probably wrong 2 days ago. But why use models if we're going strictly on climo? What a mess. Lol

"Climo" is useful in knowing how things usually play out and keeping expectations in check. But climo isn't a forecast. Climo is just a bunch of anomalies averages together. Last Decembers torch wasn't climo. The January 2016 blizzard wasn't climo. Climo tells us that we don't win very often. But we do win from time to time and that's what keeps us playing the game. Not knowing when that next win is coming. 

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49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob ChiII

12z gefs is about rock bottom. Only about .25 qpf through Jan 3 and it comes .05 at a time from 4 threats none of which has enough support to be likely. Meaning even that .25 is a false signal and in reality their advertising complete dry for 10 days. 

Man they aren't right 

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27 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Merry Christmas and nice to be back. 

Models have done what they are engineered to do.  Show all scenarios and then come confirmation time for the validity reference a 3,4,7 day depiction that showed the true final  outcome and continue on with repeat cycle

in the last week we've gone from 70 on Christmas to today's actual temps and 0-18" snowfall forecasts . Somewhere in the day after day depictions is one day at one 0z or 12z where there is a depiction that will ultimately confirm.

i don't agree with the chastization of a few days ago that we are lucky to have 5 or 7+ day models because otherwise we would have nothing to look at  Nothing to look at is a Good  idea because there is Nothing to look at!

Understanding that puts model viewing in a realistic sense rather than one anticipatory of correctness of depicted outcome 

Hope to post some obs soon. In our winter outlook we referenced in the 10-15 " snowfall prediction that we did not see any big events but rather front related blast throughs and and clippers rounding the base as 2-4" events.

 

did it ever occur to you that modeling the atmosphere of the planet out hundreds of hours when we're missing data on much of the planet and oceans is simply difficult.

First of all the partial differential equations we use aren't 100% accurate. We haven't figured out a way to completely model the atmosphere to exact precision. Their incomplete. Then add to that we don't have 100 percent of the data needed. We're missing information for parts of the planet. Then there are variables like solar radiation that can change at any moment. All of that is limiting the accuracy of these numerical predictions. 

So perhaps each model run is programmed to give us their best forecast to their limited abilities and because of all those factors listed above they simply show different outcomes run to run because small changes in the data input results in different outcomes. 

Or its some huge global conspiracy by every weather service both public and private to fool and frustrate weather weenies like us. I guess both are equally likely scenarios. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Almost all of it comes after Jan 4 when the pattern breaks down. 

What now it breaks down early? WTF are we supposed to believe haha!! Bob said a couple days ago the ensembles were the most weenie run of his life...then there was talk about hints the pattern wasnt breaking down..come on guys 

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Well that would fall in line with my idea of a potential larger storm on January 4th-6th. Just before the breakdown. 

Yes it’s all you on this one.  I’m in the panic room for a while.  This seems to be too much for me to comprehend. The only epic I see has the word failure after it. It’s easier mentally to fail when it’s warm like last year.  

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Well that would fall in line with my idea of a potential larger storm on January 4th-6th. Just before the breakdown. 

EC 240 is trying hard. It's got a dumb luck cutoff in the perfect spot. And that P007, each have about a 1/100 chance of verifying.

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8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What now it breaks down early? WTF are we supposed to believe haha!! Bob said a couple days ago the ensembles were the most weenie run of his life...then there was talk about hints the pattern wasnt breaking down..come on guys 

That was a couple days ago. This was very early this morning 

eps_z500a_noram_360.png

 

I'm throwing in the towel on trying to figure out things that aren't supposed to be figured out this year. 

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This panel shows what I have the biggest issue with. The large swath in the deep south/se/tn valley was targeted for days upon days to be the hotspot for significant precip over the next 10 days. Not a single model or ensemble showed dry. Not even the JV lineup. I've been doing this for 10+ years and this is a pretty epic fail. Top 5 for sure. It could come back and end up being a wet period but man, look at all the areas that were progged to have high precip totals that don't even have a drop this run 

ecmwf_t_precip_conus_240.png

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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What now it breaks down early? WTF are we supposed to believe haha!! Bob said a couple days ago the ensembles were the most weenie run of his life...then there was talk about hints the pattern wasnt breaking down..come on guys 

I didn't feel like wasting time going into detail. After Jan 5 or so is ambiguous. That hasn't changed. Plenty of hope it doesn't go bad right away. But most of the qpf comes way out in time and a lot of it's from rainers on members that do break things down. My point was simply it's not a good run and there wasn't a good signal for snow. He was chasing false hope. I didn't think I needed to go into great depth of why but since you wanna be snarky about it...

The guidance was wrong about the stj. It's gone now. Without that feature this becomes a cold dry pattern. Ehh. It is what it is. Like bob is saying our best bet now is  northern stream scraps. Those are frustrating because typically we get to watch north is us do much better. Oh well. 

I'm less frustrated by the pattern then I am those that use every long range busy to pile on with the drumbeat of "models suck" "long range forecasting is a waste" crap.  Suddenly the typical people come out of the woodwork every time.  Yet they are all in the long range thread. What do you want in here??? Posts about what the chicken bones and wholly worms say?  Or do you simply not want this thread to exist?  

None of us that spend time on this claim it's high probability. I never make promises. I know I'm gonna lose more then win. But the losses don't make me quit. I just get back up and try again. I enjoy the chase and the challenge. Yes I get frustrated but I don't get defeated. But this thread becomes over populated with "models suck" " we shouldn't ever believe them" crap every time this happens.  Yet everyone will be back for the next model run. 

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