Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @psuhoffman you basically described exactly how I find value in ensembles. This one time of everything blowing it and saying ens suck always is not how it works. We'd ALL be better off (me included x 100) if ops ran through 120 and it was only ensembles beyond that. Keep specific sensible wx discussion inside of d5 and then talk probability and generalities beyond that. That's exactly how every AFD reads across the country. It's also how Wes speaks 100% of the time. If we did that for the late week deal we would have looked a whole lot smarter. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @leesburg 04 That made me totally laugh out loud. I'm putting that off until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: There sure is - the 80's That's more for your region. This area fared much better in the 80s than places up north. It was the mid-late 70s here that featured lots of frozen brown ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No snow AND I have to go see my mother I have to pick mine up from assisted living and bring her over to my house and juggle her along with 34 other people coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are useful to me but everyone is different and their not a panacea they are just another tool. In the past they have identified snow threats. They began hinting at the Jan 16 storm a day or two before ops really latched on. They have identified some less extreme threats too. But they can fail also. They can also be useful in identifying if an op run is off its rocker. They don't always follow the op and when they don't it's telling. The fact that the ensembles are trending bad at the same time the ops are lends even more confidence that we're going the wrong way. But the main culprit of our woes coming up is the sudden disappearance of what all guidance said was going to be a pretty active stj. Now they are all trending towards weak sauce leaving nothing to work with. I still think by the time this breaks something will come of it but all the models including ensembles were wrong about the stj. The ensembles won't help a lick if everything is wrong about a major feature. They are useful if it's a more subtle problem that one op run might miss. From range the ops are going to be wrong. By having an ensemble we get to see a more likely range of outcomes instead of just one roll of the dice run. The fact is the ensemble mean destroys the ops on verification from long range. But everyone has their favorite tool however I find them to be of great value. Your going to be wrong way more then right when predicting from long range but without the ensembles I can't imagine even being right more than random chance. Well my gripe with them, as I said, are the snowfall maps. But the snowfall maps are derived from the wx depiction, so guess I still don't like them! Lol Seriously, the eps 2 days ago were showing a mean of 8" during a period that every operational model now prog to give us nothing. And recall after the 1/16 blizzard how they were coming in with great numbers/signals and were wrong then too. Again, pattern changes and major shifts I won't deny they do better than their operational counterpart. With snowfall, they are as misleading and imprecise as their operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I have to pick mine up from assisted living and bring her over to my house and juggle her along with 34 other people coming! Lurking today has gotten pretty depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's more for your region. This area fared much better in the 80s than places up north. It was the mid-late 70s here that featured lots of frozen brown ground. Definitely the 70's here had some real cold and disappointing snow totals. Then February 79 happened and I forgave it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't have the precip panels yet but there might be a light event mixed in here somehow someway http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Fuggetaboutit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I just thought of it but I can't believe no one did a contest for duration of sub freezing temps at at least IAD and BWI. Or maybe number of hours above freezing through the rest of the year beginning at midnight each airport. Looks like we duck below freezing this evening for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I just thought of it but I can't believe no one did a contest for duration of sub freezing temps at at least IAD and BWI. Or maybe number of hours above freezing through the rest of the year beginning at midnight each airport. Looks like we duck below freezing this evening for quite a while. Depressing without snow. Course, could have made it a double competition by having people guess how much the bge and pepco bills will be elevated in January too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Maybe we can get a quick inch or 2 on the squall line the 12z Euro yesterday and the 12z Canadian currently show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Depressing without snow. Course, could have made it a double competition by having people guess how much the bge and pepco bills will be elevated in January too... Lol. True. I guess I'm in the minority of those that like cold regardless. Also seems like I'm in the minority of thinking that it will snow next weekend in spite of what the models say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC is active around Jan 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 And there DT goes jumping ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 @Bob ChiII 12z gefs is about rock bottom. Only about .25 qpf through Jan 3 and it comes .05 at a time from 4 threats none of which has enough support to be likely. Meaning even that .25 is a false signal and in reality their advertising complete dry for 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob ChiII 12z gefs is about rock bottom. Only about .25 qpf through Jan 3 and it comes .05 at a time from 4 threats none of which has enough support to be likely. Meaning even that .25 is a false signal and in reality their advertising complete dry for 10 days. Saw that. Complete rock bottom. Only up from here (probably). I like the Jan 4-6th timeframe, but that's way too far away. Somewhere near the end of this cold pattern is where we'll most likely score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob ChiII 12z gefs is about rock bottom. Only about .25 qpf through Jan 3 and it comes .05 at a time from 4 threats none of which has enough support to be likely. Meaning even that .25 is a false signal and in reality their advertising complete dry for 10 days. The difficult part is whether they should be believed in light of what they showed a few days ago. Climo says they're probably correct now just as climo said they were probably wrong 2 days ago. But why use models if we're going strictly on climo? What a mess. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Saw that. Complete rock bottom. Only up from here (probably). I like the Jan 4-6th timeframe, but that's way too far away. Somewhere near the end of this cold pattern is where we'll most likely score But that P007 @228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Amped said: But that P007 @228 975 low right overhead. Somehow snow though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: And there DT goes jumping ship Hahahahaha. As bad as I feel that makes me smile. Not because I wanted it to fail but I am not a fan blind persistence in the face of obvious relevant data to further agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Models want to develop a +NAO after 108hr, but that has not been the trend. I would guess a more negative NAO medium/long range than what models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob ChiII 12z gefs is about rock bottom. Only about .25 qpf through Jan 3 and it comes .05 at a time from 4 threats none of which has enough support to be likely. Meaning even that .25 is a false signal and in reality their advertising complete dry for 10 days. Yep. Hideous in every aspect. Even furthers the point I made earlier when models across the board and in perfect unison for days showed copious precip in the eastern 3rd of the conus and have not only toned it down, they have a abandoned the idea in its entirety. One of the bigger med/long range busts I've seen. I'm not talking about sensible wx in my yard either. I'm taking about a third of the country. Lol So do we believe dry AF hook line and sinker now? I don't honeslty. I think the squash is being overdone over the med/long range. Precip bombs seem unlikely but a complete blank seems even less likely. Ens are now starting to agree on a breakdown of the cold starting after the first week of Jan. I'm might be looking forward to that if things break the wrong way over the next 10-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Man I’m so sorry I looked in here. Back to coffee stout and brunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 51 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fuggetaboutit I guess I have to do all the work today. And there's precip in the next panel to. And some sort of norlun or somehing thats not too far away. Big dig man. Root for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I guess I have to do all the work today. And there's precip in the next panel to. And some sort of norlun or somehing thats not too far away. Big dig man. Root for it. I'll take my 0.08-0.1" of precip and run with it. I mean, it is one of the only ops (6z NAVGEM?) that shows precip during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: I'll take my 0.08-0.1" of precip and run with it. I mean, it is one of the only ops (6z NAVGEM?) that shows precip during this time. Ukie is all northern stream. 100%. This is the 144 total. You can see some sort of norlun or IVT pretty close in jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I guess I have to do all the work today. And there's precip in the next panel to. And some sort of norlun or somehing thats not too far away. Big dig man. Root for it. Lol. I clicked on the lonk apparently right after it said 12z run. That panel was not one of the panels I saw. They atill had 0z. So yeah, beggers can't be choosers. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas and nice to be back. Models have done what they are engineered to do. Show all scenarios and then come confirmation time for the validity reference a 3,4,7 day depiction that showed the true final outcome and continue on with repeat cycle in the last week we've gone from 70 on Christmas to today's actual temps and 0-18" snowfall forecasts . Somewhere in the day after day depictions is one day at one 0z or 12z where there is a depiction that will ultimately confirm. i don't agree with the chastization of a few days ago that we are lucky to have 5 or 7+ day models because otherwise we would have nothing to look at Nothing to look at is a Good idea because there is Nothing to look at! Understanding that puts model viewing in a realistic sense rather than one anticipatory of correctness of depicted outcome Hope to post some obs soon. In our winter outlook we referenced in the 10-15 " snowfall prediction that we did not see any big events but rather front related blast throughs and and clippers rounding the base as 2-4" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro might end up giving us a small bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro is all northern stream again. Zero southern wave 2 runs in a row. We get a light event. Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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