CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Still a miss Friday..but at h5 very small but positive change in west ridging and eastern trough . Higher hieghts out west and slightly sharper trough in the east. Yeah I noticed this too. Need it to be a trend though with incremental improvements, and not just run to run noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That was coming no matter what. Models can't get shortwaves entering the west right 2 days in advance. It's a digital fantasy until the shortwave exists IRL. Lol Def more consolidated and getting its act together over southeast TX this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oh yes we do man... it's not a coincidence either. Some patterns like skipping the MA when south and north are in the game. Has all the earmarks. I'm having an awesome day so I don't even care. That will start back up tomorrow though. Heh Bob, feel this happens more in La Nina winters. That's why I love moderate Ninos so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I noticed this too. Need it to be a trend though with incremental improvements, and not just run to run noise. Not seeing anything dig the ns enough for us so I'm starting to write that off unless we see a sig change today or tomorrow. That leaves the southern piece that the euro and now cmc lost completely...oh the fun this hobby provides.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not seeing anything dig the ns enough for us so I'm starting to write that off unless we see a sig change today or tomorrow. That leaves the southern piece that the euro and now cmc lost completely...oh the fun this hobby provides.... The last 6 days has provided a very low ROI with this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That was coming no matter what. Models can't get shortwaves entering the west right 2 days in advance. It's a digital fantasy until the shortwave exists IRL. Lol And then she took a trip toward Cuba geesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Def more consolidated and getting its act together over southeast TX this run. I'm not getting invested in that for 5 days. If you look at the upper levels the 12z gfs flipped to NS dominant again. The southern shortwave is much less defined and the hammer comes down from the north. Seems repetitive to what we saw happen for the late week deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas everyone! I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one thinking this, but I don't like the trends we've been seeing over the next 2 days. Good news is that we're still entering a pretty active pattern, so we should discover a couple threats in the next week or so. I remain hopeful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: The last 6 days has provided a very low ROI with this hobby. Wait until we get through the next 6 with frigid temperatures and little to nothing to show for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Now can we agree that ensembles add nothing when it comes to predicting snowfall? Pattern change? Sure. But for snowfall thay are as imprecise and subject to change as their operational model....period! Merry Christmas. I figure if I keep wishing everyone a Merry Christmas I won't be in a bad mood all day. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Might have to wait for the pattern to be breaking down to get a threat as usual. Disappointed to say the least. Trends not good in any way. But it's xmas so I'm not gonna spend much time crying about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Merry Christmas everyone! I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one thinking this, but I don't like the trends we've been seeing over the next 2 days. Good news is that we're still entering a pretty active pattern, so we should discover a couple threats in the next week or so. I remain hopeful . I'm afraid the active pattern is a few hundred miles to our east/southeast. A 1049 HP in the middle of the country is not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 My guess with the NYD threat is the juiced southern solutions are a complete at range tease and won't exist for long. Then models will hone in on a northern shortwave that doesn't do much for the MA. We've seen this stuff before. The first "event" tells us what to expect for the second one. Repetition and probably not the good kind. Long timers around here are prob thinking the same thing. We can easy score a small event though. A big event will require a lot of things to break right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Wait until we get through the next 6 with frigid temperatures and little to nothing to show for it lol. Nasty cold and no snow cover is a waste. I wanted to see the potential of those overnight lows next weekend with snow cover. Computer model based weather forecasting still has a ways to go. At least for me it does. The turns from the ensembles and the Ops have been incredibel. No threat real until within 3 days. Best to look away. I imagine the pattern itself is responsible to a degree. You would think though, from a synoptic point of view, the pattern supported a storm, but that was when the players were forecasted to be in a better overall position for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm afraid the active pattern is a few hundred miles to our east/southeast. A 1049 HP in the middle of the country is not helping.Good news is the GFS has been so bad (showing double digit snow totals 2 days ago and again last night) that if we can get several runs in a row where it shows nothing then it definitely will snow!🤷♂️. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My guess with the NYD threat is the juiced southern solutions are a complete at range tease and won't exist for long. Then models will hone in on a northern shortwave that doesn't do much for the MA. We've seen this stuff before. The first "event" tells us what to expect for the second one. Repetition and probably not the good kind. Long timers around here are prob thinking the same thing. We can easy score a small event though. A big event will require a lot of things to break right Yep. The good news is that for those that say that computers will take over our lives, those of us alive now will be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Might have to wait for the pattern to be breaking down to get a threat as usual. Disappointed to say the least. Trends not good in any way. But it's xmas so I'm not gonna spend much time crying about it. Tend to agree with this. We got teased by some nice runs in the medium to long range, but the bottom line is we typically get our biggest snowstorms when the pattern relaxes, not when cold air just poured in. Not to say we will get a big snowstorm out of this, but it was probably a bit unrealistic to bite on some of these model runs so far out when we know we don't do great with snow just after the cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Not even fantasy snow. How did we get here? There must be some analog for amazing cold with no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 There are plenty of cases where we got into snow well before any relaxation. 13-15 stretch was loaded with them. I think what could happen is just bad luck. Plain and simple. We're talking about an active cold pattern for 10 days straight. The event last night was the fromt side so missing that is normal. Over the next week is different. If we blank out both pac waves then it's bad luck and nothing more. If we get some light events then it's a success during a northern stream period. Honeslty, the only thing I'm bitter about is models locked the F in and held for days on a big moisture tap from Baja. That wasnt a flash in the pan look. Every model had it d10+ and time started closing. Then it morphed into a complete S dry northern stream pattern. The total precip panels now over 2 weeks look like a shell of what was being advertised. I'm not talking here. I mean the entire eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The thing that keeps me hopeful is that we have a good setup to manage to beat climo in a La Nina winter. Big cold for at least 2-3 weeks with many precip chances (a lot of which will fail of course, but we have chances) . A relaxation period, but it should happen during peak climo (mid-late January), and the opportunity for a backloaded winter similar to last year. Even without a La Nina, it's hard to surpass climo snowfall with just one cold period. This is going to be a nickel and dime winter with many events that show up in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not even fantasy snow. How did we get here? There must be some analog for amazing cold with no snow Mid to late 70s had more than a few.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not even fantasy snow. How did we get here? There must be some analog for amazing cold with no snow It's too cold to snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Surprises still can happen. I'm going to go kiss a bunnies ass or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Surprises still can happen. I'm going to go kiss a bunnies ass or something I have a feeling that if I manage to eat enough food and fall into a food coma, once I wake up the models will have shifted back to a more favorable look for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Don't have the precip panels yet but there might be a light event mixed in here somehow someway http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't have the precip panels yet but there might be a light event mixed in here somehow someway Light events should be key for this winter. Like I said, we'll nickel and dime our way to climo. Good news is we're not at the peak time for snowstorms yet (which is probably why there's only a couple big snowevents for DCA in December on record), so I'm not worrying too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Now can we agree that ensembles add nothing when it comes to predicting snowfall? Pattern change? Sure. But for snowfall thay are as imprecise and subject to change as their operational model....period! Merry Christmas. I figure if I keep wishing everyone a Merry Christmas I won't be in a bad mood all day. Lol They are useful to me but everyone is different and their not a panacea they are just another tool. In the past they have identified snow threats. They began hinting at the Jan 16 storm a day or two before ops really latched on. They have identified some less extreme threats too. But they can fail also. They can also be useful in identifying if an op run is off its rocker. They don't always follow the op and when they don't it's telling. The fact that the ensembles are trending bad at the same time the ops are lends even more confidence that we're going the wrong way. But the main culprit of our woes coming up is the sudden disappearance of what all guidance said was going to be a pretty active stj. Now they are all trending towards weak sauce leaving nothing to work with. I still think by the time this breaks something will come of it but all the models including ensembles were wrong about the stj. The ensembles won't help a lick if everything is wrong about a major feature. They are useful if it's a more subtle problem that one op run might miss. From range the ops are going to be wrong. By having an ensemble we get to see a more likely range of outcomes instead of just one roll of the dice run. The fact is the ensemble mean destroys the ops on verification from long range. But everyone has their favorite tool however I find them to be of great value. Your going to be wrong way more then right when predicting from long range but without the ensembles I can't imagine even being right more than random chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Hour 384 is the ticket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Not even fantasy snow. How did we get here? There must be some analog for amazing cold with no snow There sure is - the 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 No snow AND I have to go see my mother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.