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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

That, unfortunately is the way to be in this location. EPIC patterns are only computer projections. Nothing is ever set in stone outside of four days imho. Merry Christmas Bristow.

You too Wonderdog.  Hope those pups got some bacon flavored treats from Santa.  

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0z EPS overall looks pretty ugly for significant snow chances in our region over the next 10 days. It continues the general trend of previous runs suggesting our region will be betwixt and between, with a dominant NS, and any ss interaction/coastal development too little, too late. Compare the precip panels for the next 8-10 days over the last 4 runs. Drier overall for the whole EC, but our area is especially dry.

While I want to put my faith in the Euro family, I harken back to Dec 9 (for one) where the GFS family and the NAVGEM slowly began the trend to bring snows into the region at around 96 hours out. Took the Euro family a bit longer to latch on. Not saying we will see a repeat but something to at least consider as we've been down a similar road recently. As for LR stuff, I would keep one eye on anything past 5 days lead time given the fast pattern.....and that is being generous. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

If things play out as last night's Euro,  I will not be happy.  In fact, just the thought of it happening makes me want to fill our turkey full of lead.

Merry Christmas all!!

yeah its hard to swallow alright....

I think its not done, just maybe not what we saw a few days ago.  Cold has pressed so models will have one less thing to think about,  so they will likely start honing in on what were getting fed this week. 

I'll pass on your turk though...

 

 

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23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nothing at all.  I am desperate so even 1-2 cold powder sounds damn good to me right now.  If we can pull that off in this pattern we suck big time.  

Hard to get enthused about the prospects for anything other than a light event right now. At this point it seems like we need to root for a big dig from the NS. Problem is the most likely outcome is similar to what is occurring today- cold and windy here while a coastal deepens to our NE and gives most of New England a snowstorm, lol.

 

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

While I want to put my faith in the Euro family, I harken back to Dec 9 (for one) where the GFS family and the NAVGEM slowly began the trend to bring snows into the region at around 96 hours out. Took the Euro family a bit longer to latch on. Not saying we will see a repeat but something to at least consider as we've been down a similar road recently. As for LR stuff, I would keep one eye on anything past 5 days lead time given the fast oattern.....and that is being generous.

 

One thing to watch is the ridge position and amplitude out west. If it's going to take a NS low for us to score something decent, a flat PNA ridge is not going to help.

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16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

GFS for New Years Day period has us in 30+hours of varying snow intensities, and that's being conservative. What's not to like? Start time is less than 7 days. Buck up people.

It looks like a New Years Eve / New Years Day snow bonanza. 6-10” region wide approximately. I’m in. What else do we got? 

Merry Xmas to all those celebrating! Have a great day everyone. 

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44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

While I want to put my faith in the Euro family, I harken back to Dec 9 (for one) where the GFS family and the NAVGEM slowly began the trend to bring snows into the region at around 96 hours out. Took the Euro family a bit longer to latch on. Not saying we will see a repeat but something to at least consider as we've been down a similar road recently. As for LR stuff, I would keep one eye on anything past 5 days lead time given the fast pattern.....and that is being generous. 

 

 

The GFS was the first to latch onto Friday event too.  After it one epic run, it brought us to reality and the others followed (CMC, Euro, and then the UKIE).

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

84hr NAM has something to our south.  Just throwing it out there waiting for the right time to pour a drink.  Pushing happy hour to 12z today

Two GFS runs in a row with a foot+ of digital snow imby, again. lol. Why not play extrapolate the NAM? 

12z happy hour eh? Would be nice if the Euro has..something.

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16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sim/Sat from the 3k NAM at 60 hrs., max range for the 3k....not bad, ehh?

 

nam3km_ir_us_60.png

That's an impressive plume of moisture on the STJ fetching all the way from Baja.  Is the ever so slight dip over North TX and OK the trough effects of the Nrn stream?  If so, do my feeble eyes see a phase potential between the two?  Or is that just wishful thinking? 

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Gfs keeps showing how simple bad luck screws us. Out of sync and right in the middle. We have some history with this stuff so very believable. Not throwing in the towel because luck can change but right now just not getting the pieces to play nice

Will be intesting to see if the euro brings back the southern piece after losing it completely last night 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs keeps showing how simple bad luck screws us. Out of sync and right in the middle. We have some history with this stuff so very believable. Not throwing in the towel because luck can change but right now just not getting the pieces to play nice

Will be intesting to see if the euro brings back the southern piece after losing it completely last night 

We have A LOT of history with this. Lol

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We have A LOT of history with this. Lol

Oh yes we do man... it's not a coincidence either. Some patterns like skipping the MA when south and north are in the game. Has all the earmarks. I'm having an awesome day so I don't even care. That will start back up tomorrow though. Heh

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Merry Christmas my weather weenie friends!

The GFS is exactly what a screw job looks like for our area. And it is the reason we should always hate seeing a LP over the lakes. That the Euro has backed off on an active southern stream is concerning as well. I still think we see snow, probably a couple of times over the next couple of weeks. But without the southern stream we can probably kiss a big storm goodbye. 

Enjoy the holiday with your families everyone!

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