Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6z GEFS has a noticeable jump N and W with clustering of slp late week vs 0Z. Mean slp also came N and W. Baby step or big signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Just by looking at the 24hr Precip Panels and the Low Locations, the 6z GEFS seemed better for the New Years Day threat. That's good news. Didn't even look yet. You mean better than the 6z op or 0z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: That's good news. Didn't even look yet. You mean better than the 6z op or 0z GEFS? 0z GEFS. Just by comparing the two, there is decent shift NW with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This isnt a huge red flag or any of that BUT you can clearly see the jump in clustering from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That's good news. Didn't even look yet. You mean better than the 6z op or 0z GEFS? Merry Christmas. 6z GFS finds us a different, but very acceptable way, to get us around 10" of snow around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Also of note on the GEFS mslp mean, it looks like the lp has a weakness to the NE and it might tend to jump that direction BUT if u look closely, it is one bombed out low (976) that is skewing the mean look. Not a horrible look imo....maybe it begins with 6z today? Eta: just want to note I am referencing Friday.....I know majority seem to have moved on to NYDay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z GEFS has a noticeable jump N and W with clustering of slp late week vs 0Z. Mean slp also came N and W. Baby step or big signal? Merry Christmas All!!!! Haven't given up on it either. But we are starting to run out of time to see some of the changes we need to make this work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Also of note on the GEFS mslp mean, it looks like the lp has a weakness to the NE and it might tend to jump that direction BUT if u look closely, it is one bombed out low (976) that is skewing the mean look. Not a horrible look imo....maybe it begins with 6z today? Eta: just want to note I am referencing Friday.....I know majority seem to have moved on to NYDay Was going to post as well. Seems like an ever so subtle tick NW. Hopefully the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Merry Christmas. 6z GFS finds us a different, but very acceptable way, to get us around 10" of snow around New Years. Merry Christmas to you as well. Trying to sneak in my weather stuff before my wife cuts me off and makes me focus on the family lol. I liked the 0z evolution better but that works. I thought Friday looked worse even at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas All!!!! Haven't given up on it either. But we are starting to run out of time to see some of the changes we need to make this work. 108+ hours is running out of time? This year? With this pattern? I strongly disagree and I don't think ive ever disagreed with a post of yours.....ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looks like LWX is starting to write off Friday as well. Focusing on wind chills in their write up. No mention of NYD. Maybe cold and mostly dry is what this cold period will be. Shame to waste the cold on just chapped skin and more heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 If things play out as last night's Euro, I will not be happy. In fact, just the thought of it happening makes me want to fill our turkey full of lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Merry Christmas All!!!! Haven't given up on it either. But we are starting to run out of time to see some of the changes we need to make this work. 108+ hours is running out of time? This year? With this pattern? I strongly disagree and I don't think ive ever disagreed with a post of yours.....ever. Not talking a moderate event but a big ticket item. While a moderate event is still possible, and actually I think we will see a minor to a moderate event, the changes we would need to see for something big would involve some somewhat significant changes. I just think we are a day or so away from where we would be expecting a lot from the models to give us the changes needed. But as you said, nothing is really locked in until almost zero hour with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If things play out as last night's Euro, I will not be happy. In fact, just the thought of it happening makes me want to fill our turkey full of lead. To add insult to injury, the eps snowfall map flat out sux. I sure hope the ideas of the Gfs ultimately prevail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 MERRY CHRISTMASS TO YOU ALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: To add insult to injury, the eps snowfall map flat out sux. I sure hope the ideas of the Gfs ultimately prevail. You must have missed around day 10 on the EPS. That's not a bad look at all for something big popping. But day 10.... eta: actually a decent pop on snowfall through that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: To add insult to injury, the eps snowfall map flat out sux. I sure hope the ideas of the Gfs ultimately prevail. An everywhere but here type look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, rcflyermd68 said: MERRY CHRISTMASS TO YOU ALL To you as well. I don't think it's what we wanted not to be tracking a real legit threat but it's cold so there is something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: You must have missed around day 10 on the EPS. That's not a bad look at all for something big popping. But day 10.... I saw it. I'm not a big believer in day 10+ changes on eps snowfall maps. I mean an inch or two is not much above chance. The eps snowfall map for the area has gone fron 8" to 4". If the 4":jump we saw a couple of days ago on a 7 day map can disappear over a few runs, an inch or two jump around day 10 and beyond are useless imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: An everywhere but here type look? Basically a slow creep up in amounts that I would attribute to random chance. Day 10+ there's a more noticeable increase of an inch+, but that's la-la land noise imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 0z EPS overall looks pretty ugly for significant snow chances in our region over the next 10 days. It continues the general trend of previous runs suggesting our region will be betwixt and between, with a dominant NS, and any ss interaction/coastal development too little, too late. Compare the precip panels for the next 8-10 days over the last 4 runs. Drier overall for the whole EC, but our area is especially dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 0z EPS overall looks pretty ugly for significant snow chances in our region over the next 10 days. It continues the general trend of previous runs suggesting our region will be betwixt and between, with a dominant NS, and any ss interaction/coastal development too little, too late. Compare the precip panels for the next 8-10 days over the last 4 runs. Drier overall for the whole EC, but our area is especially dry. Sounds pretty ugly, hope it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd the WPC discussion isn't too bad and keeps hope alive with a question mark. Still uncertainty and some model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looks like we are all getting coal in our stockings this morning. Amazing how the pattern looked like one where it was impossible to miss out and very likely to get significant snow in one or a few storms and now we may strike out. At least it's still very early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like we are all getting coal in our stockings this morning. Amazing how the pattern looked like one where it was impossible to miss out and very likely to get significant snow in one or a few storms and now we may strike out. At least it's still very early in the season. I'm a little perplexed that on Friday we have a retreating HP and the storm still doesn't make it up to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like we are all getting coal in our stockings this morning. Amazing how the pattern looked like one where it was impossible to miss out and very likely to get significant snow in one or a few storms and now we may strike out. At least it's still very early in the season. I will be much more leery of "we can't lose EPIC pattern incoming multiple chances weenie scenario" claims in the future...the optimal mental state for winter weather in the MA is cautious pessimism regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Not talking a moderate event but a big ticket item. While a moderate event is still possible, and actually I think we will see a minor to a moderate event, the changes we would need to see for something big would involve some somewhat significant changes. I just think we are a day or so away from where we would be expecting a lot from the models to give us the changes needed. But as you said, nothing is really locked in until almost zero hour with this pattern.Big ticket has been off the table for a while now. Im thinking a nice moderate event is still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Maybe the opposite will work with the NYE storm IRT to the Euro. We had some great OP runs and mean snowfall approaching 8” on some runs. It’s backed way off and looks pretty bleak right now but what’s not to say it doesn’t change like its already done multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I will be much more leery of "we can't lose EPIC pattern incoming multiple chances weenie scenario" claims in the future...the optimal mental state for winter weather in the MA is cautious pessimism regardless. That, unfortunately is the way to be in this location. EPIC patterns are only computer projections. Nothing is ever set in stone outside of four days imho. Merry Christmas Bristow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Maybe the opposite will work with the NYE storm IRT to the Euro. We had some great OP runs and mean snowfall approaching 8” on some runs. It’s backed way off and looks pretty bleak right now but what’s not to say it doesn’t change like its already done multiple times. Nothing at all. I am desperate so even 1-2 cold powder sounds damn good to me right now. If we can pull that off in this pattern we suck big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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