Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, PDIII said: Not sure if you were around in December 2010.. but we had one progged just like this one... Foot plus up until the day of the event... Everyone was under a warning. We ended up with flurries. This one looks eerily similar.. I've looked at that NARR map 100X it doesn't look like this one. High is much further east here, and the southern stream starts phasing earlier. It's a classic January 87/ feb 1958 Miller A if the GFS is right which of course it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, Sparky said: Haven't had a really good new years eve storm since '70. 15.4" at IAD- one of the most under-praised storms for the western suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, Ukie looks nothing like gfs or cmc. Looks like a blank, but need to wait on precip panels. Merry Christmas to all and good night. Night and day on 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It's 12:00 am and officially December 25, 2017. Merry Christmas to all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I would never ask for snow again Guess I'll be coming home early from Buffalo But in all seriousness, one of these waves has to strike lucky 7s for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I'm a bigger fan of creating artificially warm lakes in place of the Appalachian mountains to cause lake effect snow, resulting in 60+" of snow for DC and nowhere else. I'm getting a tad bit greedy though, aren't I but what about our CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm not saying Merry Christmas to one of you....I'm saying it to ALL of you. I appreciate chatting with a bunch of folks who enjoy this sometimes brutal sport. Maybe no big suprises under the tree, but enough to get me outta bed early just like when i was a kid. Looking forward to tracking some fluffy stuff in the next couple weeks. Gnight all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm not saying Merry Christmas to one of you....I'm saying it to ALL of you. I appreciate chatting with a bunch of folks who enjoy this sometimes brutal sport. Maybe no big suprises under the tree, but enough to get me outta bed early just like when i was a kid. Looking forward to tracking some fluffy stuff in the next couple weeks. Gnight all. Nut Gnight! Hopefully we can get a Christmas present in the form of 6z runs and even 12z trending positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 DT sticking to his guns. Can't post it at this moment but you can take my word for it that he believes the models will trend back and that it's better to focus on ensembles at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Who wants to bet me this trends so far NW it's rain? I can't see how that happens without a large error in the longwave pattern. If the NS digs west it will kick out the Baja Low sooner before the flow has a chance to amplify enough. Going to need a shortwave to chop off the ridge west of CA and kick it into the southeast. The CMC does this, and its still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT sticking to his guns. Can't post it at this moment but you can take my word for it that he believes the models will trend back and that it's better to focus on ensembles at this point in time . SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ABOUT DEC 29-30 SNOWSTORM THREAT if you are weather hobbyists or weather weenies you have probably know that most of the weather models on Sunday afternoon seem to take away the threat for Middle Atlantivc/ new England snowstorm DEC 29-30 or least show a very minor weak system for portions of North Carolina and Virginia as well as the lower Maryland Eastern shore. That being said again the emphasis has to be on NOT what a individual weather model is showing but on what the model ENSEMBLES. If we take a look at THAT data on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening will see that in fact there sis good evidence that the system for DEC 29-30 IS still alive and l kicking and still looks like a moderate snowfall for good portion of North Carolina central and Eastern Virginia maybe up to Washington, DC Baltimore certainly the Delmarva New Jersey possibly into New York City and Eastern New England. Again you are weather hobbyist or weenie I urge you to stop looking at the operational models and getting worked up or depressed one way or the other. That is NOT what you should be doing in this sort of situation and this particular event appears a bit more difficult than the typical coastal storm in time to figure out what's going to happen. As non threatening as the Sunday afternoon European model was if you look at the Sunday European ensembles you will see a significantly different scenario. This image shows a coastal low forming on the night of the 29 into the morning of the 30th and one that would bring snow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. Now the European ensembles do seem to want a shift the coastal low further off the coast so that is something we have to be concerned about especially for areas north of Washington, DC. We are at the point now where I think the weather models are going to start trending back towards some sort of coastal storm. Indeed the 18z GFS ensembles do look fairly promising. They show a better more organize system and they show strike the precipitation of about 0.50 inches covering much of North Carolina ...eastern and southeastern Virginia ...across the Delmarva up into NJ/ NYC and the little heavier precipitation over southeastern New England. So if you take your basic 10 to 1 snow ratio be looking at about 3 -6 or 4-8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, ATreglown said: SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ABOUT DEC 29-30 SNOWSTORM THREAT if you are weather hobbyists or weather weenies you have probably know that most of the weather models on Sunday afternoon seem to take away the threat for Middle Atlantivc/ new England snowstorm DEC 29-30 or least show a very minor weak system for portions of North Carolina and Virginia as well as the lower Maryland Eastern shore. That being said again the emphasis has to be on NOT what a individual weather model is showing but on what the model ENSEMBLES. If we take a look at THAT data on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening will see that in fact there sis good evidence that the system for DEC 29-30 IS still alive and l kicking and still looks like a moderate snowfall for good portion of North Carolina central and Eastern Virginia maybe up to Washington, DC Baltimore certainly the Delmarva New Jersey possibly into New York City and Eastern New England. Again you are weather hobbyist or weenie I urge you to stop looking at the operational models and getting worked up or depressed one way or the other. That is NOT what you should be doing in this sort of situation and this particular event appears a bit more difficult than the typical coastal storm in time to figure out what's going to happen. As non threatening as the Sunday afternoon European model was if you look at the Sunday European ensembles you will see a significantly different scenario. This image shows a coastal low forming on the night of the 29 into the morning of the 30th and one that would bring snow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. Now the European ensembles do seem to want a shift the coastal low further off the coast so that is something we have to be concerned about especially for areas north of Washington, DC. We are at the point now where I think the weather models are going to start trending back towards some sort of coastal storm. Indeed the 18z GFS ensembles do look fairly promising. They show a better more organize system and they show strike the precipitation of about 0.50 inches covering much of North Carolina ...eastern and southeastern Virginia ...across the Delmarva up into NJ/ NYC and the little heavier precipitation over southeastern New England. So if you take your basic 10 to 1 snow ratio be looking at about 3 -6 or 4-8 inches of snow. There ya go Cobalt. DT post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Well, at least the runs today still show some potential beyond Friday...I'll take that as my snow-related birthday present for today...as long as SOMETHING verifies next weekend! (ironically it has snowed on a couple Christmas Eves the past few years, of which I was elated, lol). And as some of you may have noticed, I'm an Almanac guy (kind of), and both have a signal for that weekend, so I'm interested to see if it hits, lol Merry Christmas everyone--I enjoy all of the knowledgeable post on here (and it's good to be among snow-loving company...were a strange bunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 25 minutes ago, Amped said: I can't see how that happens without a large error in the longwave pattern. If the NS digs west it will kick out the Baja Low sooner before the flow has a chance to amplify enough. Going to need a shortwave to chop off the ridge west of CA and kick it into the southeast. The CMC does this, and its still snow. The trough/vortex is overdone. The whole pattern is shrinking at this time, storm is change out of negative NAO event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Ukie at least delivers flurries to an inch but not much for anyone anywhere except eastern nc. Weird run. Gefs takes away from what 18z gave us for the late week deal. A little support for the next in line but nothing to get excited about. This winter is annoying on the tracking front. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GEFS should be interesting to see if any of them look like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Pretty big difference between the euro and gfs out west at hr72. Euro is either going to dig much later or it lost the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty big difference between the euro and gfs out west at hr72. Euro is either going to dig much later or it lost the shortwave. Wow it's almost got the NS trapped in Western Canada at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Wow it's almost got the NS trapped in Western Canada at 96. There is no southern wave or it barely exists. Nothing got ejected. Very annoying man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I guess this is the definition of "losing the storm". Soutern piece vaporized. Kinda like the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I guess this is the definition of "losing the storm". Soutern piece vaporized. Kinda like the ukie. Somehow a 993mb just off cape cod at 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 After all this there might not even be a southern piece at all. It is time to root for the big dig with the ns. Can't say anyone saw this turn of events coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 After all this there might not even be a southern piece at all. It is time to root for the big dig with the ns. Can't say anyone saw this turn of events coming. Thriller for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 As a strong frigid Arctic front approaches, I am receiving plain, regular light RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Santa came and went...left me a lump of coal wrapped in a hard copy of the 0z Euro run. Headed to Jeb's house next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Santa came and went...left me a lump of coal wrapped in a hard copy of the 0z Euro run. Headed to Jeb's house next. Copy that. Santa is on his rounds. Dude was generous with me, he left an inch of coal all over my driveway and even left me a new Jebman-Grade shovel lmao. But don't think for a moment that I think winter is over. It most assuredly is not over. Winter will not end in the Mid Atlantic until May. We are going to get demolished by crushing amounts of snow, it just wont be today. It does however, feel Christmasy outside at the moment, and that festive, refreshing feeling will increase exponentially once that WIND starts crankin' up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just had a look at the 06z GFS and although it looks like a very slight downgrade on the 00z, I suspect most of that is just 06z flabby presentation, it's basically the same evolution as 00z with a promising and deepening 500 mb low swooping down to energize the second coastal low (Jan 1). The first one is not really dead either, it could crank out a bit of snow there as it begins to develop offshore. But that Dec 31-Jan 2 window is where to look for a big storm and at least you're in the game, it does look even more promising up the coast but maybe lots of snow for everybody. Have a great day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas to all. Not much left of Friday deal on 6z. Weekend looks muddled or just odd to me in that evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas to all! 6z NAVGEM ticked W and takes low pressure close to Hatteras at 108 hrs. However, it moves ENE and OTS from there. Maybe we are on a witch hunt to find a needle in a haystack with this system but I dont hate the look of the NAVGEM thru 108. I still think by Tuesday we are going to have a group of guidance taking the storm near Hatteras then we begin the ever so popular routine of tracking whether it goes OTS or N/NNE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just by looking at the 24hr Precip Panels and the Low Locations, the 6z GEFS seemed better for the New Years Day threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.