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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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7 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Not sure if you were around in December 2010..  but we had one progged just like this one... Foot plus up until the day of the event... Everyone was under a warning. We ended up with flurries. 

This one looks eerily similar..

 

I've looked at that NARR map 100X it doesn't look like this one. High is much further east here, and the southern stream starts phasing earlier. It's a classic January 87/ feb 1958 Miller A if the GFS is right which of course it's not.

 

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I'm not saying Merry Christmas to one of you....I'm saying it to ALL of you. 

I appreciate chatting with a bunch of folks who enjoy this sometimes brutal sport.  Maybe no big suprises under the tree, but enough to get me outta bed early just like when i was a kid.

Looking forward to tracking some fluffy stuff in the next couple weeks.

Gnight all.

Nut

 

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I'm not saying Merry Christmas to one of you....I'm saying it to ALL of you. 
I appreciate chatting with a bunch of folks who enjoy this sometimes brutal sport.  Maybe no big suprises under the tree, but enough to get me outta bed early just like when i was a kid.
Looking forward to tracking some fluffy stuff in the next couple weeks.
Gnight all.
Nut
 

Gnight! Hopefully we can get a Christmas present in the form of 6z runs and even 12z trending positive


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24 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Who wants to bet me this trends so far NW it's rain?


lalala.gif

 

I can't see how that happens without a large error in the longwave pattern. If the NS digs west it will kick out the Baja Low sooner before the flow has a chance to amplify enough. 

Going to need a shortwave to chop off the ridge west of CA and kick it into the southeast.  The CMC does this, and its still snow.

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

DT sticking to his guns. Can't post it at this moment but you can take my word for it that he believes the models will trend back and that it's better to focus on ensembles at this point in time


.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ABOUT DEC 29-30 SNOWSTORM THREAT

if you are weather hobbyists or weather weenies you have probably know that most of the weather models on Sunday afternoon seem to take away the threat for Middle Atlantivc/ new England snowstorm DEC 29-30 or least show a very minor weak system for portions of North Carolina and Virginia as well as the lower Maryland Eastern shore.

That being said again the emphasis has to be on NOT what a individual weather model is showing but on what the model ENSEMBLES. If we take a look at THAT data on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening will see that in fact there sis good evidence that the system for DEC 29-30 IS still alive and l kicking and still looks like a moderate snowfall for good portion of North Carolina central and Eastern Virginia maybe up to Washington, DC Baltimore certainly the Delmarva New Jersey possibly into New York City and Eastern New England.

Again you are weather hobbyist or weenie I urge you to stop looking at the operational models and getting worked up or depressed one way or the other. That is NOT what you should be doing in this sort of situation and this particular event appears a bit more difficult than the typical coastal storm in time to figure out what's going to happen.

As non threatening as the Sunday afternoon European model was if you look at the Sunday European ensembles you will see a significantly different scenario. This image shows a coastal low forming on the night of the 29 into the morning of the 30th and one that would bring snow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. Now the European ensembles do seem to want a shift the coastal low further off the coast so that is something we have to be concerned about especially for areas north of Washington, DC.

We are at the point now where I think the weather models are going to start trending back towards some sort of coastal storm. Indeed the 18z GFS ensembles do look fairly promising. They show a better more organize system and they show strike the precipitation of about 0.50 inches covering much of North Carolina ...eastern and southeastern Virginia ...across the Delmarva up into NJ/ NYC and the little heavier precipitation over southeastern New England. So if you take your basic 10 to 1 snow ratio be looking at about 3 -6 or 4-8 inches of snow.

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Just now, ATreglown said:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ABOUT DEC 29-30 SNOWSTORM THREAT

if you are weather hobbyists or weather weenies you have probably know that most of the weather models on Sunday afternoon seem to take away the threat for Middle Atlantivc/ new England snowstorm DEC 29-30 or least show a very minor weak system for portions of North Carolina and Virginia as well as the lower Maryland Eastern shore.

That being said again the emphasis has to be on NOT what a individual weather model is showing but on what the model ENSEMBLES. If we take a look at THAT data on Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening will see that in fact there sis good evidence that the system for DEC 29-30 IS still alive and l kicking and still looks like a moderate snowfall for good portion of North Carolina central and Eastern Virginia maybe up to Washington, DC Baltimore certainly the Delmarva New Jersey possibly into New York City and Eastern New England.

Again you are weather hobbyist or weenie I urge you to stop looking at the operational models and getting worked up or depressed one way or the other. That is NOT what you should be doing in this sort of situation and this particular event appears a bit more difficult than the typical coastal storm in time to figure out what's going to happen.

As non threatening as the Sunday afternoon European model was if you look at the Sunday European ensembles you will see a significantly different scenario. This image shows a coastal low forming on the night of the 29 into the morning of the 30th and one that would bring snow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. Now the European ensembles do seem to want a shift the coastal low further off the coast so that is something we have to be concerned about especially for areas north of Washington, DC.

We are at the point now where I think the weather models are going to start trending back towards some sort of coastal storm. Indeed the 18z GFS ensembles do look fairly promising. They show a better more organize system and they show strike the precipitation of about 0.50 inches covering much of North Carolina ...eastern and southeastern Virginia ...across the Delmarva up into NJ/ NYC and the little heavier precipitation over southeastern New England. So if you take your basic 10 to 1 snow ratio be looking at about 3 -6 or 4-8 inches of snow.

There ya go Cobalt. DT post

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Well, at least the runs today still show some potential beyond Friday...I'll take that as my snow-related birthday present for today...as long as SOMETHING verifies next weekend! (ironically it has snowed on a couple Christmas Eves the past few years, of which I was elated, lol). And as some of you may have noticed, I'm an Almanac guy (kind of), and both have a signal for that weekend, so I'm interested to see if it hits, lol Merry Christmas everyone--I enjoy all of the knowledgeable post on here (and it's good to be among snow-loving company...were a strange bunch :lol: 

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25 minutes ago, Amped said:

I can't see how that happens without a large error in the longwave pattern. If the NS digs west it will kick out the Baja Low sooner before the flow has a chance to amplify enough. 

Going to need a shortwave to chop off the ridge west of CA and kick it into the southeast.  The CMC does this, and its still snow.

The trough/vortex is overdone. The whole pattern is shrinking at this time, storm is change out of negative NAO event. 

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Ukie at least delivers flurries to an inch but not much for anyone anywhere except eastern nc. Weird run. 

Gefs takes away from what 18z gave us for the late week deal. A little support for the next in line but nothing to get excited about. This winter is annoying on the tracking front. Lol

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26 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Santa came and went...left me a lump of coal wrapped in a hard copy of the 0z Euro run.  Headed to Jeb's house next.  

Copy that. Santa is on his rounds. Dude was generous with me, he left an inch of coal all over my driveway and even left me a new Jebman-Grade shovel lmao.

But don't think for a moment that I think winter is over. It most assuredly is not over. Winter will not end  in the Mid Atlantic until May. We are going to get demolished by crushing amounts of snow, it just wont be today. It does however, feel Christmasy outside at the moment, and that festive, refreshing feeling will increase exponentially once that WIND starts crankin' up.

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Just had a look at the 06z GFS and although it looks like a very slight downgrade on the 00z, I suspect most of that is just 06z flabby presentation, it's basically the same evolution as 00z with a promising and deepening 500 mb low swooping down to energize the second coastal low (Jan 1). The first one is not really dead either, it could crank out a bit of snow there as it begins to develop offshore. But that Dec 31-Jan 2 window is where to look for a big storm and at least you're in the game, it does look even more promising up the coast but maybe lots of snow for everybody. Have a great day. 

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Merry Christmas to all!

 

6z NAVGEM ticked W and takes low pressure close to Hatteras at 108 hrs. However, it moves ENE and OTS from there. Maybe we are on a witch hunt to find a needle in a haystack with this system but I dont hate the look of the NAVGEM thru 108. I still think by Tuesday we are going to have a group of guidance taking the storm near Hatteras then we begin the ever so popular routine of tracking whether it goes OTS or N/NNE from there.

 

 

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