Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Just for the sake of learning, @Bob Chill , what would you want for that D7 storm to produce even more? That's easy...phase all 3 shortwaves south of us and then close off h5 into a bowling ball somehere around NC. Then break out the B word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oh man that's close to a triple phase right there. All 3 streams trying to pull it all together. Wow And....we're back lol. Storm after the storm and all, I know, but I've thought it's been trending more favorable for that window as we have been lamenting the less favorable trend in the dec 28-29 window. As depicted now the PV is relaxed more at that time, the trough is digging much further west, both giving it more room to amplify. I'm not throwing in the towel on something from threat 1 but as of this moment the New Years time period has more upside potential. Yea it's further away and that sucks but it is what it is. I don't care when it snows as long as it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Basically the summary is, we will have lots to track in the next week. What will the first 3-6" event of the year be? Maybe this Friday, maybe New years, maybe a week and a half from now, or maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oh man that's close to a triple phase right there. All 3 streams trying to pull it all together. Wow Oh lord, if you give me this ONE triple phase, I promise I will never ask for anything ever again and I will have had enough snow for the rest of my life. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 What snow lover wouldn't want to wake up on the morning of new year's day to moderate snow with 2 inches on the ground with temps in the low teens and the heavier stuff about to light up the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I would never ask for snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Yes, but this new years event has been a fixture for the past 3 runs. If anything, this has more potential then the Friday event. Also, that storm has more snow, so it must be rightWasnt there a thurs-sat thing showing up for like 3-4 straight days with massive ens signals for it to boot? Too progressive this year = focus on shorter term......too many pieces of energy ripping thru which can and will alter LR forecast on the turn of a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's easy...phase all 3 shortwaves south of us and then close off h5 into a bowling ball somehere around NC. Then break out the B word Bullish? As in the GFS being Bullish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Basically the summary is, we will have lots to track in the next week. What will the first 3-6" event of the year be? Maybe this Friday, maybe New years, maybe a week and a half from now, or maybe next year. Yes, we get it. You’ve posted that 3 times in 5 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Who wants to bet me this trends so far NW it's rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 We need the appetizer on Friday to set the stage for what is quickly becoming the main course NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Oh lord, if you give me this ONE triple phase, I promise I will never ask for anything ever again and I will have had enough snow for the rest of my life. Please.Bull.....you will ask for even more snow and more bitter cold like many of us with the sickness. Its in our blood Jeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Basically the summary is, we will have lots to track in the next week. What will the first 3-6" event of the year be? Maybe this Friday, maybe New years, maybe a week and a half from now, or maybe next year. Yeah, one thing can be said about this winter so far...at least its more exciting with tracking events than last year. Hope we can score a nice region-wide moderate event out of one of these chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Haven't had a really good new years eve storm since '70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Just for the sake of learning, @Bob Chill , what would you want for that D7 storm to produce even more? Not bob but...Probably nothing. It's a near perfect track. Passes our lat in 980s. Classic. A bit more phasing perhaps but honestly exactly as is would probably end up wetter then gfs is showing. It would probably juice up some in the ccb if we ended up with that track and intensity. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Bullish? As in the GFS being Bullish? My cynical side says it's bull-something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I would never ask for snow again I would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Wasnt there a thurs-sat thing showing up for like 3-4 straight days with massive ens signals for it to boot? Too progressive this year = focus on shorter term......too many pieces of energy ripping thru which can and will alter LR forecast on the turn of a dime. I will add....I bet one of our best producing storm this season pops up with less than 72 hour lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I would never ask for snow again Not sure if you were around in December 2010.. but we had one progged just like this one... Foot plus up until the day of the event... Everyone was under a warning. We ended up with flurries. This one looks eerily similar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Bullish? As in the GFS being Bullish? Nope....blizzard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I would never ask for snow again Looks almost as good as the snow map looked a couple days ago for the Friday storm. I still want both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, PDIII said: Not sure if you were around in December 2010.. but we had one progged just like this one... Foot plus up until the day of the event... Everyone was under a warning. We ended up with flurries. This one looks eerily similar.. Of course, but you can only be unlucky so many times. That's my reasoning on why we're gonna get a big snow within the next 2 or 3 weeks and I'm sticking by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nope....blizzard.... BECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, Sparky said: Haven't had a really good new years eve storm since '70. If that thing phased real good, you would be truly buried alive in crazy deep snow. Where YOU live, it might hypothetically end up being measured in meters. We can dream anyway. I wish we'd get it, but I will NOT be suckered in by a long range fantasy storm. We've already done this once this week lmao You know what they say, Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on ME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Ehh triple phasers are over rated. Usually fast movers. I want a march 58 redux only colder. Maybe a couple weeks earlier with an arctic airmass in place. Get a cut off system to just sit for days like that. 4-5" qpf region wide. 40-50". If I'm being greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Not sure if you were around in December 2010.. but we had one progged just like this one... Foot plus up until the day of the event... Everyone was under a warning. We ended up with flurries. This one looks eerily similar.. If you're referring to Boxing Day 2010, it wasn't quite like that. Maybe out in time models showed a good hit for us, but as it got within a few or so days, I recall it was getting squashed too far south...similar to the event late this upcoming week. Then around Christmas Eve, a couple runs of the GFS put us back into some good snow and yes, we even got a warning out of it. But it was not clear, there was still a lot of model discrepancy for this area even 36 hours before game time (GFS I think was nearly on its own bringing back snow here). We all know then what happened...it quickly lurched back into almost nothing for us the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Basically the summary is, we will have lots to track in the next week. What will the first 3-6" event of the year be? Maybe this Friday, maybe New years, maybe a week and a half from now, or maybe next year. Post of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ehh triple phasers are over rated. Usually fast movers. I want a march 58 redux only colder. Maybe a couple weeks earlier with an arctic airmass in place. Get a cut off system to just sit for days like that. 4-5" qpf region wide. 40-50". If I'm being greedy. I'm a bigger fan of creating artificially warm lakes in place of the Appalachian mountains to cause lake effect snow, resulting in 60+" of snow for DC and nowhere else. I'm getting a tad bit greedy though, aren't I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: In all seriousness, the 28-30 and 31-Jan 1 period were both "highlighted" as possibilities. Models had varied as to which system to key in on for us. Seem to recall a couple days ago the Euro was aiming NYE/NYD, even as the GFS was still (at that time) hitting us with late this upcoming week. The Euro was definitely aiming off-and-on for that time frame, flipping back and forth between that and the Friday wave. It never did blow up all the waves like that ridiculous GFS run from 0Z 12/23. I think we get giddy with snow-maps in a way we don't with, say, NHC hurricane Day-5 position forecasts. Like there's no expectation that that day-5 position/strength is going to verify given the state of hurricane modeling and all the disclaimers from the NHC itself about the average 5-day track error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Fwiw, Ukie looks nothing like gfs or cmc. Looks like a blank, but need to wait on precip panels. Merry Christmas to all and good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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