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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agree. It's like they sniff out the potential correctly,  get bogged down/confused by the chaos,  then come to a more accurate forecast that happens to prove their original identification of the threat potential as being accurate,  albeit imprecise. 

That's a great way of putting it. Agree 100%

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I agree. It happens enough to not be a coincidence. The tricky part is when a storm reappears it can be a significantly different way of getting there than the one that vanished. This one didn't really vanish though. It's been around in some form or another on various models pretty much daily. An usually high number of significant changes along the way too. Kind of annoying honeslty.

The ensembles seem to want to give us snow, one way or another, in the next 7 days. My gut says the southern stream low will deliver late week. Similar to what occurred a couple weeks ago, incremental ticks northward, with maybe some ns interaction(in a good way) this time. Nothing huge, but a totally acceptable, cold, high ratio 2-4 type deal, with a bit more to the south of our region.

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I know everyone hates this run, but the trends were a little better as far as the ridging out west, especially from 12z to 18z to now 0z. Clearly better amplitude to the west coast ridge. And at hour 84 I could see how if the interaction goes just a bit differently the shortwaves could at least partially phase. I really don’t think this is far off as people might think. Still time for those things to trend better. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just a little out of sync. NS dug in more but the ss had a little more shear so it didn't bloom as much. 2 small changes away from a decent light event. Still in the game regardless of qpf output on this run. 

Yeah I agree with this. Some subtle modifications and we can get 2-4 out of this.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I agree with this. Some subtle modifications and we can get 2-4 out of this.

I did a bit of a mental reset today. I'm chasing a newly found light event. Those earlier runs with big hits had it all wrong with a lot of things so dwelling on that is fruitless. There a ways to get something from a weak pac shortwave and what appears to be a strengthening ns shortwave. And they're pretty close together. Knowing the final evolution is at least 48 hours away. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I did a bit of a mental reset today. I'm chasing a newly found light event. Those earlier runs with big hits had it all wrong with a lot of things so dwelling on that is fruitless. There a ways to get something from a weak pac shortwave and what appears to be a strengthening ns shortwave. And there pretty close together. Knowing the final evolution is at least 48 hours away. 

I can't seem to get my mind off those earlier runs, so really anything that doesn't turn into something resembling that will be disappointing to me at this point, and especially if northeast of us gets hit hard.

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