Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Agree. It's like they sniff out the potential correctly, get bogged down/confused by the chaos, then come to a more accurate forecast that happens to prove their original identification of the threat potential as being accurate, albeit imprecise. That's a great way of putting it. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. It happens enough to not be a coincidence. The tricky part is when a storm reappears it can be a significantly different way of getting there than the one that vanished. This one didn't really vanish though. It's been around in some form or another on various models pretty much daily. An usually high number of significant changes along the way too. Kind of annoying honeslty. The ensembles seem to want to give us snow, one way or another, in the next 7 days. My gut says the southern stream low will deliver late week. Similar to what occurred a couple weeks ago, incremental ticks northward, with maybe some ns interaction(in a good way) this time. Nothing huge, but a totally acceptable, cold, high ratio 2-4 type deal, with a bit more to the south of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Through 78h on the GFS, I don’t see much change in the upper levels. Progressive pattern. Hope I’m wrong, but a slider OTS or late phase into NE looks realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 What is everyone thoughts about panel 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 At 78 hrs, toggling between 0z and 18z, I see an ever so subtle change for the better. No huge change, but maybe a small improvement over 18z. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Interstate said: What is everyone thoughts about panel 84? Looks about the same, maybe a tad worse. I could be wrong though. I honestly don't have high expectations until the 0z runs 24 hours from now, but that could be the snow weenie in me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: At 78 hrs, toggling between 0z and 18z, I see an ever so subtle change for the better. No huge change, but maybe a small improvement over 18z. We'll see. I believe that 84 looks even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: What is everyone thoughts about panel 84? Not as good as 78 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I think 90 blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looks like 12z at hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC isn't any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 There is nothing to phase this closer to us. Likely a glancing shot before the late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Looking at snowfall map shows 0.1" of snow for DC at hr 108. Precip maps aren't updated yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 At 102, northern stream headed se but looks to be a hair late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: At 102, northern stream headed se but looks to be a hair late Is that better in comparison to the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: At 102, northern stream headed se but looks to be a hair late I thought the overall H5 looked better than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The northernstream don't give a crap about the southern stream. It's making it's own low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'm making an .5" my bar and going to bed... GFS delivers that much. At least it'll stick right away. can't say that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just a little out of sync. NS dug in more but the ss had a little more shear so it didn't bloom as much. 2 small changes away from a decent light event. Still in the game regardless of qpf output on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I know everyone hates this run, but the trends were a little better as far as the ridging out west, especially from 12z to 18z to now 0z. Clearly better amplitude to the west coast ridge. And at hour 84 I could see how if the interaction goes just a bit differently the shortwaves could at least partially phase. I really don’t think this is far off as people might think. Still time for those things to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Run not awful, and I think we have a chance to have some improvement runs in the next 24 hours or so. Ensembles should be the same I think. Still think 12z runs were rock bottom and we have room for improvement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 A bit more NS dig this run. Not enough to help us though. Congrats LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just a little out of sync. NS dug in more but the ss had a little more shear so it didn't bloom as much. 2 small changes away from a decent light event. Still in the game regardless of qpf output on this run. Yeah I agree with this. Some subtle modifications and we can get 2-4 out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Canadian has moderate event hr 168 Honestly, I would prefer a light event this Friday if we got the event that the Canadian is showing in return. 1-3", but temps are in low teens so ratios would probably double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Nice New Years eve/Day snowstorm on the Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nice New Years eve/Day snowstorm on the Cmc That could be one to watch potentially as well. I think I like our chances with that, especially since we have 7 days until that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I agree with this. Some subtle modifications and we can get 2-4 out of this. I did a bit of a mental reset today. I'm chasing a newly found light event. Those earlier runs with big hits had it all wrong with a lot of things so dwelling on that is fruitless. There a ways to get something from a weak pac shortwave and what appears to be a strengthening ns shortwave. And they're pretty close together. Knowing the final evolution is at least 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I did a bit of a mental reset today. I'm chasing a newly found light event. Those earlier runs with big hits had it all wrong with a lot of things so dwelling on that is fruitless. There a ways to get something from a weak pac shortwave and what appears to be a strengthening ns shortwave. And there pretty close together. Knowing the final evolution is at least 48 hours away. I can't seem to get my mind off those earlier runs, so really anything that doesn't turn into something resembling that will be disappointing to me at this point, and especially if northeast of us gets hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 New Years event looks poised to hit as per hr 162 on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nice New Years eve/Day snowstorm on the Cmc Looks like the GFS is heading in that direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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