BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:30 PM, Wonderdog said: That, unfortunately is the way to be in this location. EPIC patterns are only computer projections. Nothing is ever set in stone outside of four days imho. Merry Christmas Bristow. Expand You too Wonderdog. Hope those pups got some bacon flavored treats from Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:30 PM, BristowWx said: Nothing at all. I am desperate so even 1-2 cold powder sounds damn good to me right now. If we can pull that off in this pattern we suck big time. Expand Our climate- hold my beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:31 PM, BristowWx said: You too Wonderdog. Hope those pups got some bacon flavored treats from Santa. Expand lol, I hope I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 12:42 PM, C.A.P.E. said: 0z EPS overall looks pretty ugly for significant snow chances in our region over the next 10 days. It continues the general trend of previous runs suggesting our region will be betwixt and between, with a dominant NS, and any ss interaction/coastal development too little, too late. Compare the precip panels for the next 8-10 days over the last 4 runs. Drier overall for the whole EC, but our area is especially dry.While I want to put my faith in the Euro family, I harken back to Dec 9 (for one) where the GFS family and the NAVGEM slowly began the trend to bring snows into the region at around 96 hours out. Took the Euro family a bit longer to latch on. Not saying we will see a repeat but something to at least consider as we've been down a similar road recently. As for LR stuff, I would keep one eye on anything past 5 days lead time given the fast pattern.....and that is being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 11:52 AM, mitchnick said: If things play out as last night's Euro, I will not be happy. In fact, just the thought of it happening makes me want to fill our turkey full of lead. Expand Merry Christmas all!! yeah its hard to swallow alright.... I think its not done, just maybe not what we saw a few days ago. Cold has pressed so models will have one less thing to think about, so they will likely start honing in on what were getting fed this week. I'll pass on your turk though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GFS for New Years Day period has us in 30+hours of varying snow intensities, and that's being conservative. What's not to like? Start time is less than 7 days. Buck up people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:30 PM, BristowWx said: Nothing at all. I am desperate so even 1-2 cold powder sounds damn good to me right now. If we can pull that off in this pattern we suck big time. Expand Hard to get enthused about the prospects for anything other than a light event right now. At this point it seems like we need to root for a big dig from the NS. Problem is the most likely outcome is similar to what is occurring today- cold and windy here while a coastal deepens to our NE and gives most of New England a snowstorm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:34 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: While I want to put my faith in the Euro family, I harken back to Dec 9 (for one) where the GFS family and the NAVGEM slowly began the trend to bring snows into the region at around 96 hours out. Took the Euro family a bit longer to latch on. Not saying we will see a repeat but something to at least consider as we've been down a similar road recently. As for LR stuff, I would keep one eye on anything past 5 days lead time given the fast oattern.....and that is being generous. Expand One thing to watch is the ridge position and amplitude out west. If it's going to take a NS low for us to score something decent, a flat PNA ridge is not going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:41 PM, Wonderdog said: GFS for New Years Day period has us in 30+hours of varying snow intensities, and that's being conservative. What's not to like? Start time is less than 7 days. Buck up people. Expand It looks like a New Years Eve / New Years Day snow bonanza. 6-10” region wide approximately. I’m in. What else do we got? Merry Xmas to all those celebrating! Have a great day everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 2:03 PM, Scraff said: It looks like a New Years Eve / New Years Day snow bonanza. 6-10” region wide approximately. I’m in. What else do we got? Merry Xmas to all those celebrating! Have a great day everyone. Expand Merry Christmas to you as well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas to everyone on the board. Hoping for a good end to 2017! All the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:34 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: While I want to put my faith in the Euro family, I harken back to Dec 9 (for one) where the GFS family and the NAVGEM slowly began the trend to bring snows into the region at around 96 hours out. Took the Euro family a bit longer to latch on. Not saying we will see a repeat but something to at least consider as we've been down a similar road recently. As for LR stuff, I would keep one eye on anything past 5 days lead time given the fast pattern.....and that is being generous. Expand The GFS was the first to latch onto Friday event too. After it one epic run, it brought us to reality and the others followed (CMC, Euro, and then the UKIE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 When’s the last time any energy from the gulf came surging up the Apps? Southern Stream energy is being false modeled and tricking you all into believing this area is in for a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 84hr NAM has something to our south. Just throwing it out there waiting for the right time to pour a drink. Pushing happy hour to 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 3:02 PM, BristowWx said: 84hr NAM has something to our south. Just throwing it out there waiting for the right time to pour a drink. Pushing happy hour to 12z today Expand Two GFS runs in a row with a foot+ of digital snow imby, again. lol. Why not play extrapolate the NAM? 12z happy hour eh? Would be nice if the Euro has..something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Sim/Sat from the 3k NAM at 60 hrs., max range for the 3k....not bad, ehh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 3:16 PM, mitchnick said: Sim/Sat from the 3k NAM at 60 hrs., max range for the 3k....not bad, ehh? We really need to keep a log of short range reverse busts and what the models did. If this happens like that (not saying it will), but it happens frequently enough to not be a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Winter in the Mid Atlantic is akin to opening socks on xmass morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I know Bob has alluded to this but I wonder why the passage of this cold front would somehow clarify what happens down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 3:16 PM, mitchnick said: Sim/Sat from the 3k NAM at 60 hrs., max range for the 3k....not bad, ehh? Expand That's an impressive plume of moisture on the STJ fetching all the way from Baja. Is the ever so slight dip over North TX and OK the trough effects of the Nrn stream? If so, do my feeble eyes see a phase potential between the two? Or is that just wishful thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 1:41 PM, Wonderdog said: GFS for New Years Day period has us in 30+hours of varying snow intensities, and that's being conservative. What's not to like? Start time is less than 7 days. Buck up people. Expand True - just like the 29" of snow it had for us 6 days out on Friday's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 3:37 PM, Wonderdog said: I know Bob has alluded to this but I wonder why the passage of this cold front would somehow clarify what happens down the line.Well, that's what happened December 8-9 and January 5-6, so this could do the same thing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Gfs keeps showing how simple bad luck screws us. Out of sync and right in the middle. We have some history with this stuff so very believable. Not throwing in the towel because luck can change but right now just not getting the pieces to play nice Will be intesting to see if the euro brings back the southern piece after losing it completely last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 3:59 PM, Bob Chill said: Gfs keeps showing how simple bad luck screws us. Out of sync and right in the middle. We have some history with this stuff so very believable. Not throwing in the towel because luck can change but right now just not getting the pieces to play nice Will be intesting to see if the euro brings back the southern piece after losing it completely last night Expand We have A LOT of history with this. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Feliz Navidad a todos! IIRC in Nina winters we rarely get the long-lead time textbook coastals, but with cold we can score some events that pop up within just 48-72 hours. Let's take our 10-day cold period and see what we get. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Canadian is so far SE. Really kills Friday threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 4:01 PM, mitchnick said: We have A LOT of history with this. Lol Expand Oh yes we do man... it's not a coincidence either. Some patterns like skipping the MA when south and north are in the game. Has all the earmarks. I'm having an awesome day so I don't even care. That will start back up tomorrow though. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5h completely different for New Years storm as well ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Merry Christmas my weather weenie friends! The GFS is exactly what a screw job looks like for our area. And it is the reason we should always hate seeing a LP over the lakes. That the Euro has backed off on an active southern stream is concerning as well. I still think we see snow, probably a couple of times over the next couple of weeks. But without the southern stream we can probably kiss a big storm goodbye. Enjoy the holiday with your families everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 On 12/25/2017 at 4:08 PM, Buddy1987 said: 5h completely different for New Years storm as well ugh. Expand That was coming no matter what. Models can't get shortwaves entering the west right 2 days in advance. It's a digital fantasy until the shortwave exists IRL. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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