WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Riding the rollercoaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 @ Bob Chill Over the last 3 runs of the GEFS qpf has increased south of us. Looking at the 24 hour precip panels centered next Friday it looks decent just south of the region. What do we look for and want to happen for this slug of precip to be more pointed at us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, Chris78 said: @ Bob Chill Over the last 3 runs of the GEFS qpf has increased south of us. Looking at the 24 hour precip panels centered next Friday it looks decent just south of the region. What do we look for and want to happen for this slug of precip to be more pointed at us? Just watch for any type of ridging (however small it may be) in front of the shortwave moving through the middle of the country. Flat or downhill isobars out in front will keep that shield south of us. We want an uphill look. That turns the upper level flow southwest instead of west like the gfs and now euro shows. Even though the 6z gfs looked better, it was still a pretty weak (and flat) shortwave. That's why the precip is so light. The good runs had the southern feature amplified to push deep moisture overhead and then the northern piece partially phases and juices up the coastal. The bad runs have a flat/sheared southern shortwave running out in front of the northern stream. No interaction and no love here. My biggest fear is missing the southern and having late interaction with the northern stream. This event could give the SE a moderate event and the NE a big event and us a no event. Think boxing day 2010. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, Chris78 said: @ Bob Chill Over the last 3 runs of the GEFS qpf has increased south of us. Looking at the 24 hour precip panels centered next Friday it looks decent just south of the region. What do we look for and want to happen for this slug of precip to be more pointed at us? Yes that would be best. Moisture pointed at you beats the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just watch for any type of ridging (however small it may be) in front of the shortwave moving through the middle of the country. Flat or downhill isobars out in front will keep that shield south of us. We want an uphill look. That turns the upper level flow southwest instead of west like the gfs and now euro shows. Even though the 6z gfs looked better, it was still a pretty weak (and flat) shortwave. That's why the precip is so light. The good runs had the southern feature amplified to push deep moisture overhead and then the northern piece partially phases and juices up the coastal. The bad runs have a flat/sheared southern shortwave running out in front of the northern stream. No interaction and no love here. My biggest fear is missing the southern and having late interaction with the northern stream. This event could give the SE a moderate event and the NE a big event and us a no event. Think boxing day 2010. Lol Thanks for the explanation. I still have nightmares from boxing day 2010.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 An optimistic thought.... so far this season we've seen events trend more amplified/backed flow through the final 72 hours. Happened on the 9th, happened with today's shortwave, and even happened with the mini events we've seen so far. I don't see a compelling reason why the late week system won't do the same. Since we're still about 120 hours out we can still see major shifts. Once we get to 72 hours the shifts become more minor. If we are still in the crosshairs or at least close to a good event on guidance on Tuesday or so, we can easily trend into a good event in the short range. I'm mostly looking for the bleeding to stop over the next couple days. And also hoping the 0z ukie nails it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 We want: more separation between shortwaves in the flow, more ridging out west (even just a slight amount could really help with downstream amplification), and less confluence in the northeast (less squashing). If any of those things can trend better we can bring this back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Stings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Just watch for any type of ridging (however small it may be) in front of the shortwave moving through the middle of the country. Flat or downhill isobars out in front will keep that shield south of us. We want an uphill look. That turns the upper level flow southwest instead of west like the gfs and now euro shows. Even though the 6z gfs looked better, it was still a pretty weak (and flat) shortwave. That's why the precip is so light. The good runs had the southern feature amplified to push deep moisture overhead and then the northern piece partially phases and juices up the coastal. The bad runs have a flat/sheared southern shortwave running out in front of the northern stream. No interaction and no love here. My biggest fear is missing the southern and having late interaction with the northern stream. This event could give the SE a moderate event and the NE a big event and us a no event. Think boxing day 2010. Lol Heh. Check my post in the locked thread right before it was locked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Meh, very similar to 6z through 84hrs. Less amped if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Yeah - the shortwave is even less prominent on this run it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Gfs is backing down on the southern stream and more northern stream dominant. Not the direction I was hoping for regardless of the outcome. If it morphs to a northern stream only event we'll be playing with fire up until gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 With a -NAO -EPO and a strong 50/50 low you need a southeast ridge to get something to come up the coast. Otherwise, the 50/50 low will dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Cmc is a straight kick in the teeth. Hopefully today is rock bottom. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Maybe I will just stay put in Brevard, NC and catch the snow here Thursday night and Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It's the storm after the storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The GFS is the ultimate screwjob out here. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 No spiking footballs or anything but if this ends up out of sync and squashed by the northern stream then the gfs saw it first. The gfs may have screwed around with the shortwave but the gfs started advertising the sheared/flat progression well in advance of other guidance. It started at 6z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is a straight kick in the teeth. Hopefully today is rock bottom. Lol We had the (unrealistic) long duration weenie runs. Now in crush and shear mode. The next few runs will begin to hone in on what this is destined to become- a nice moderate event for the MA. Or maybe a frustrating miss, and a really boring cold and dry period, lol. One of the weather staples of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: It's the storm after the storm.... Maybe..and still only 7-8 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS with the carrot on the stick act Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We had the (unrealistic) long duration weenie runs. Now in crush and shear mode. The next few runs will begin to hone in on what this is destined to become- a nice moderate event for the MA. Or maybe a frustrating miss, and a really boring cold and dry period, lol. One of the weather staples of our region. Still of the belief that in another day or so of runs this will look much better as it locks onto the coastal idea vs. the over running and cutter ideas. Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe..and still only 7-8 days away! That is actually starting to look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It's trying to come our way but we're back to 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Well the GFS shows some conversation flakes for part of the area on Friday. Take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Maybe..and still only 7-8 days away! Still flat as a pancake in the upper levels. Lol. One way to improve the fri-sat deal is simple back the system up the coast a little. Very possible and has been a seasonal trend in Dec. Not that things don't change. Lol. If it happened like that with no phase it would still be a light/mod event. Gotta try and find something to be optimistic about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Still of the belief that in another day or so of runs this will look much better as it locks onto the coastal idea vs. the over running and cutter ideas. That is actually starting to look good. I am in on the day 8 deal. NYE/NYD. This is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Snow falling on New Years with a lp on the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Still flat as a pancake in the upper levels. Lol. One way to improve the fri-sat deal is simple back the system up the coast a little. Very possible and has been a seasonal trend in Dec. Not that things don't change. Lol. If it happened like that with no phase it would still be a light/mod event. Gotta try and find something to be optimistic about right? The coastal is going to get it done. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I am in on the day 8 deal. NYE/NYD. This is the one. Yeah that event still has hope. The 28th-29th looks dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6AM on New Years, a nice event taking place. Have a feeling it's going to scoot out to sea but it's where we want it a week away or 8 days away. Yeah there it goes at noon on New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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