The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

[Amos83]

This is typical. Gfs tends to lose storms in the 5-7 day range only to start bringing in back. Euro is known to do the same in the 4-5 day range. That doesn't guarantee the euro is doing that this time but seems to be par for the course every year with storms around here

[FallsLake]

from RAH:

Thursday night through Saturday, we will leave the low chance POP for
snow/sleet (frozen) and some ice threat as well (SE) for most of the
region. We will be deep in the cold air, courtesy of the strong arctic
high that will be in perfect location, and have sufficient strength
to continuously deliver CAA from the north. This occurs as hard to time
impulses in the mid/upper flow begin to throw lift and moisture
into the cold air in place.


All the precipitation chances will be tied to the potential initial
system approaching from the west / with secondary low development
off the SC coast Friday, then up the East Coast this weekend. It is
still very low confidence - but the chance of wintry weather remains
for all of central NC late week. Lows generally in the 20s, with highs in the
30s (20s if widespread precipitation develops Friday a possibility in
the Piedmont).

This initial winter weather or storm threat will be followed
by yet another shot of bitter cold air expected later in the weekend.
Lows Sunday should be in the teens, with highs in the upper 20s NW
and 30s SE.

Yet another, possibly larger winter threat is possible New Year`s
week.
 

 

[tazaroo]

11 minutes ago, broken024 said:

How was 6z gefs?

Good,. From the MA forum.  Let's reel this in!

[mackerel_sky]

25 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

from RAH:

Thursday night through Saturday, we will leave the low chance POP for
snow/sleet (frozen) and some ice threat as well (SE) for most of the
region. We will be deep in the cold air, courtesy of the strong arctic
high that will be in perfect location, and have sufficient strength
to continuously deliver CAA from the north. This occurs as hard to time
impulses in the mid/upper flow begin to throw lift and moisture
into the cold air in place.


All the precipitation chances will be tied to the potential initial
system approaching from the west / with secondary low development
off the SC coast Friday, then up the East Coast this weekend. It is
still very low confidence - but the chance of wintry weather remains
for all of central NC late week. Lows generally in the 20s, with highs in the
30s (20s if widespread precipitation develops Friday a possibility in
the Piedmont).

This initial winter weather or storm threat will be followed
by yet another shot of bitter cold air expected later in the weekend.
Lows Sunday should be in the teens, with highs in the upper 20s NW
and 30s SE.

Yet another, possibly larger winter threat is possible New Year`s
week.
 

 

From what y'all usually say, that seems extremely bullish for them!

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, tazaroo said:

Good,. From the MA forum.  Let's reel this in!

Wow! Even if it's the GEFS, like the bigger totals each run from the 18z hiccups! Great trends over night, save for the slightly drier Euro

[packbacker]

16 minutes ago, broken024 said:

How was 6z gefs?

Looked solid with 3 separate chances.  The mean might be a tad overdone to say the least.  

Days 5-8.

Days 8-12.

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Looked solid with 3 separate chances.  The mean might be a tad overdone to say the least.  

Days 5-8.

Days 8-12.

That's a lot of IP/ZR for you and Cold Rain

[Isopycnic]

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That's a lot of IP/ZR for you and Cold Rain

That’s a lot of Virga.

[buckeyefan1]

Good morning folks and Merry Christmas Eve    Please keep banter in the proper thread and if you find your posts being deleted, take a moment to compose a better post in the discussion thread before timeouts are handed out. Thank you in advance for your cooperation    

 

Now.........back to your regular scheduled program 

[Buddy1987]

Taller ridge at 69 12z NAm, comparing it to the 6z GFS. Sharper with the pac energy as well thus far. Hoping for a good trend today! Merry Christmas everyone! 

Edit: Nam would signify meager precip. Looks like it wants to transfer earlier to the SC coast as well. Kinda wonky imo with the general presentation. Should have produced something better at 500 with the look. I think the heights aren’t as good up in the Midwest, thus maybe why it’s more suppressed. Guess we’ll see at 12z with the GFS.

[msuwx]

11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Taller ridge at 69 12z NAm, comparing it to the 6z GFS. Sharper with the pac energy as well thus far. Hoping for a good trend today! Merry Christmas everyone! 

Edit: Nam would signify meager precip. Looks like it wants to transfer earlier to the SC coast as well. Kinda wonky imo with the general presentation. Should have produced something better at 500 with the look. I think the heights aren’t as good up in the Midwest, thus maybe why it’s more suppressed. Guess we’ll see at 12z with the GFS.

 The disturbance we are concerned with is still in the Rockies at 84 hours on the Nam. The time period is not here yet. 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

 The disturbance we are concerned with is still in the Rockies at 84 hours on the Nam. The time period is not here yet. 

Eh my bad on that. Very volatile setup with trying to look at 5h and then make sense of 850s and such. A lot of flowing pieces, I.e. PV, the high up in Canada and all the players on the field. What I was ultimately attempting to get at was the pac energy looked better when comparing it to the gfs at the same time range. What are your thoughts? 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

 The disturbance we are concerned with is still in the Rockies at 84 hours on the Nam. The time period is not here yet. 

 

More likely than not most here won’t want the initial rain producing disturbance before the CAD sets in to be too strong because that may disrupt the ensuing second piece Thu into Fri.  I have a hunch one of them will end up being markedly dominant.  If its the first one then the event Thu or Fri is probably confined mostly to GA and that’s it 

[msuwx]

21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Eh my bad on that. Very volatile setup with trying to look at 5h and then make sense of 850s and such. A lot of flowing pieces, I.e. PV, the high up in Canada and all the players on the field. What I was ultimately attempting to get at was the pac energy looked better when comparing it to the gfs at the same time range. What are your thoughts? 

 Yeah, that is not a bad look for the NAM. Need the backside portion of that vorticity to dig down from there as it moves across the plains 

[msuwx]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

More likely than not most here won’t want the initial rain producing disturbance before the CAD sets in to be too strong because that may disrupt the ensuing second piece Thu into Fri.  I have a hunch one of them will end up being markedly dominant.  If its the first one then the event Thu or Fri is probably confined mostly to GA and that’s it 

 Agreed. I think most want that second piece of energy depicted there to be the dominant one. 

[CaryWx]

Hi Matt.,  Is that second piece over Wyoming on the 84hr or is it the part over western Montana and Idaho?

 

[msuwx]

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Hi Matt.,  Is that second piece over Wyoming on the 84hr or is it the part over western Montana and Idaho?

 

 It is kind of strung out, but Wyoming primarily 

[mackerel_sky]

So if this sneaky new 27th event happens, it'll screw up the 29th storm!

[SteveVa]

Interestingly, 27th event is showing up on the NAM and Euro. Even EPS has some kind of support for it. NE NC and SE VA could get a nice light event.  I'll definitely keep an eye on that lead disturbance.

[WarmNose]

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So if this sneaky new 27th event happens, it'll screw up the 29th storm!

But we still have a 3rd and maybe 4th event! IMO Just need a decent glaze/IP base before the big dog on New Years. Anything more than that is a huge win in my book

[packbacker]

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So if this sneaky new 27th event happens, it'll screw up the 29th storm!

Always something...Peaked at the EPS members, roughly a 1/3 maybe a little more whiff.  I would like to see that decrease at 12z.  

[WarmNose]

Fwiw last night's CMC had the 27th event and the system right after was still a crush job. 

[lilj4425]

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So if this sneaky new 27th event happens, it'll screw up the 29th storm!

Don’t worry. The GFS that is starting will save us.   

[mackerel_sky]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Don’t worry. The GFS that is starting will save us.   

Meh, can't count on a winter event until the sleets hitting you in the face around here!

And my highs on Friday and Sat next week are 47/51 respectively, from my local forecast! 

[Jet Stream Rider]

I'm going to be traveling by car though central NC on the 27th. So I've been hoping everything holds off till after that. Keeping an eye on that early overrunning event, have noticed it popped back up yesterday on some of the models. Good luck everybody and Merry Christmas!

[CLTwx]

Super Scientist Webber on Twitter: 

Eric Webb‏ @webberweather 31s32 seconds ago

More

EPS suite is starting to sniff out yet another threat for wintry wx in the Carolinas by Wed of this week as a broad area of low pressure rides along an increasingly diffuse arctic front offshore & allows light-moderate precip to overrun a prominent low-level arctic airmass

[mackerel_sky]

11 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Always something...Peaked at the EPS members, roughly a 1/3 maybe a little more whiff.  I would like to see that decrease at 12z.  

In all fairness, it was the lightest on qpf last night, of all the op and ensemble models!

[packbacker]

6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

In all fairness, it was the lightest on qpf last night, of all the op and ensemble models!

The UK was beefed up last night...will see in about 15 mins if that holds.  The CMC looks weaker at 84.

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Gfs looking good again @81. Rockies energy digging ever more slightly and looks a little sharper thus far.

Looks a little flatter trajectory, but let's see where it goes

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Gfs looking good again @81. Rockies energy digging ever more slightly and looks a little sharper thus far.

Yep, next few frames will be telling.