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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Too funny.... I wouldn't worry about it right now. It's a strong signal. Models will waffle a bit between now and then.

We all know this, but Jesus. Not one single model has looked like its previous run one time since we started tracking this thing. It's frustrating. Why do we watch this garbage? Weather models shouldn't be available to the public.

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

We all know this, but Jesus. Not one single model has looked like its previous run one time since we started tracking this thing. It's frustrating. Why do we watch this garbage? Weather models shouldn't be available to the public.

I don’t recall a time when models have ever been consistent from run to run. 

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Just now, griteater said:

Weak shortwaves continue feeding into the trough and it ends up being a prolonged event - a 24-27 hr winter storm with light precip for parts of central and northern SC...and a lot of NC save the far eastern areas.  Prolonged icing event in central and northern SC

Wedge icing back into northern and central GA as well

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3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I don’t recall a time when models have ever been consistent from run to run. 

Well, the NAVGEM performed very well with the last event and the Canadian does well with CAD at this range. I am going with a blend of those two for now. I really don't care what the OP Euro or GFS has to say. However, I will give a nod to their ensembles.

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To me, the chances of this storm delivering in our forum have gone up tonight.  We finally have a bit more of an overall consistent look at 500mb.  Still many days out, but I'd say confidence increased tonight.  I'd say the most likely scenario is that this amps up more as we get closer...but the key for wintry precip in our forum is that the CAD should continue to remain stout on the modeling as the system approaches

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Canadian Ensemble Mean continues to like the idea of a healthy winter storm in our forum

MzUbupX.png

I appreciate you including everyone or distinguishing specific locations.

If you look at the qpf of the GFS, the CMC and the EURO and averaged them together, I think you still have a nasty, major icing event from the GA/AL border up through NC.  Just no 2 ways about it.

 

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I think it's safe to say that we will have enough cold air for a major winter storm. Now, we just have to hammer out the P-types and QPF. Climo suggests that the heart of the damming zone would receive frozen while the outer areas get the zr. How that plays out is still up for grabs at this time. I would say that by this time tomorrow night, we will see whether the trends are for a more amped up system (more zr and north) or a weak slider (more frozen and farther south). Pay attention to the NAVGEM. It is my model of choice, if I had to pick only one.

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3 hours ago, griteater said:

Euro Ensemble mean was much like the op run.  Wave was weaker this run compared to its last run...and it has a late blooming system much like the op

ZXCylGK.png

6z gfs looks similar. Decent over running event with a transfer to a coastal.  Probably a precip minimum in the upstate and piedmont. 

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Typical gnashing of teeth as we try to reel in a winter storm in the SE. It's never easy. As others have indicated, it's good to see the Canadian and NAVGEM amped. The 6Z GFS was much improved, too. Here's hoping Santa brings us all a late Christmas gift! Merry Christmas to you and yours. 

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