NCSNOW Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 One big plus or maybe minus if you end up entrenched in the freezing rain ptype. Notice we never loose the cold air feed on all these runs at the surface. Lot 9f times storms come in on pre existing air masses and rev up and we end up loosing our sub freezing surface temps toward the tail end of the storm through latent heat release etc. But I've yet to see on any of the model runs this happening. Keep the NE fetch and good hp anchor the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, POWERSTROKE said: You should know JB been talking about this for almost two weeks as well as others to come. Keep reading his Twitter account He will keep u informed. Yep he made the call week of Christmas BN and SE threats. This was probably over a week ago. Good job of pattern recoginition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I know this is a clown map all the way. I know that IP and ZR are at play here, but it goes to the heart of what the CMC is pumping out. Don't flame me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, HWY316wx said: I know this is a clown map all the way. I know that IP and ZR are at play here, but it goes to the heart of what the CMC is pumping out. Don't flame me. I think it’s entirely plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, Lookout said: One would think after how bad we schooled him years ago he would have . Hence, why he left "Southeast" out of his wording. To all the old timers that were around when that went down, that was something to remember. We were all cutting our teeth on this board. .it was classic. Foothills Weather stood firm and called it TO. A. TEE!! I think that was either 2006 or 2009? Pure-tee classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: It looks a lot like the CMC to me. On the previous image at 120, it has a strong damming look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Hence, why he left "Southeast" out of his wording. To all the old timers that were around when that went down, that was something to remember. We were all cutting our teeth on this board. .it was classic. Foothills Weather stood firm and called it TO. A. TEE!! I think that was either 2006 or 2009? Pure-tee classic! Yes I remember it well, He got mad and his last words was I hope you get an inch of Ice!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: It looks a lot like the CMC to me. On the previous image at 120, it has a strong damming look Ridge looks a lot taller on the west coast! Helping out a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Yes I remember it well, He got mad and his last words was I hope you get an inch of Ice!! lol Yall are mistaken.. That was me he wished it on... He's a fool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Yall are mistaken.. That was me he wished it on... He's a fool Dang B. You are correct. I think it may have been Robert's (FoothillWx) thread and you started pawning LC. Heck, it was GRAB YOUR POPCORN fo sho. LOL. Great times man. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just looking at 2m temperature maps on the CMC. It has Upstate SC and almost all of NC (exception of the beaches) below freezing from 6z the 28th through 00z January 3rd (the end of the run). Can't say I've ever seen that look in my lifetime. interesting times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Any thoughts on the MJO backing off? Just makes me wonder about blocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 39 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Lookout, I would love to hear your take on the upcoming potential, especially with regards to the NEGA / Upstate area that is so prone to icing. I'll try soon...been a busy few days..including tonight taking a friend to the er after she fell and broke her arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Ukie has the shortwave just off the Oregon coast at 72,much bigger precip field at 126-144 with a couple lows. That's a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: Ukie has the shortwave just off the Oregon coast at 72,much bigger precip field at 126-144 with a couple lows. That's a big hit. Indeed. Precip still going strong at 144 but this is accumulation map until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Indeed. Precip still going strong at 144 but this is accumulation map until then. Holy wow! DWD Icon on board also, from the other board. Looks like CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 00z GFS was a carousel of crush right through the first week of January. What a time to be alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Indeed. Precip still going strong at 144 but this is accumulation map until then. Verbatim, that looks a lot like the precip shield from the Dec 05 event! The trajectory from TX, but looking a lot colder than that storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 What a wedge on the German model... wow. You’re looking at teens in western NC and freezing rain across a huge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS Ens Mean was a good run. Cold with good damming. Looks a little more healthy with precip compared to the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Justincobbco said: Yes lookout! Please give us your expertise. Metro Atlanta is the largest population center on this forum and I'm still confused as to where we stand with the winter weather potential! . I personally believe Atlanta is in for a sleet and freezing rain event. The model support is there on the EURO and the CMC. (Unless the EURO that is running now backs off) How deep the cold will slide South and West is too far out to tell, but Metro Atlanta and points East and North East should be paying attention at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: What a wedge on the German model... wow. You’re looking at teens in western NC and freezing rain across a huge area. Just in case anyone didn’t see it... here’s the insane German run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, HWY316wx said: I personally believe Atlanta is in for a sleet and freezing rain event. The model support is there on the EURO and the CMC. (Unless the EURO that is running now backs off) How deep the cold will slide South and West is too far out to tell, but Metro Atlanta and points East and North East should be paying attention at this point. If the CMC is to be believed, which was right last time, metro Atlanta is the bullseye with the most qpf in the ZR zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 All of the modeling is now coming together better with the handling of the wave and how it dives into the southern plains. Some timing differences. The 00z GFS was the weakest with the wave, but all are showing a similar idea now where that hasn't been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Justincobbco said: Yes lookout! Please give us your expertise. Metro Atlanta is the largest population center on this forum and I'm still confused as to where we stand with the winter weather potential! . Well he can give a much better answer but right now Atlanta should be very concerned. The trends today have been colder with more QPF, and deeper to the SW with the CAD. Unfortunately, ATL not in a snowy look this time so zr is going be a real concern. Based on what is being modeled currently, this would be historically bad for some areas. SIGH, if only it could be snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 NAVGEM has a bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro out to 96 and it's flatter/weaker with the lead wave digging into S WY. Less ridging behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Euro out to 96 and it's flatter/weaker with the wave digging into S WY. Less ridging behind it here we go...EURO and GFS switching places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 EURO is about to be whiff city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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