jshetley Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Ice storms are a lot easier to get than snow! This one IF it happens would probably be mostly sleet for us. Maybe with some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 For the record, loving the upstate SC interest among members. Great presence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 FWIW when comparing the GFS to the experimental FV3, the future replacement of the GFS, the FV3 is definitely not in the suppressed camp. GFS is on the left and FV3 on the right. Bottom panel highlights the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Same case for the 2nd storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Have to go work my job tomorrow, I'm a FireFighter, and have to be up early... the wife asked why I wasn't asleep yet, I told her I was waiting for the new model data! It will REEL you in man! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Here comes the GFS to take us behind the woodshed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Same case for the 2nd storm as well. Interesting. Do you have a link to the FV3 model page? I’d love to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Here comes the GFS to take us behind the woodshed again. Now now... positive thoughts here. Only out to 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The NAVGEM is a little more amped this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Much better gfs run incoming imo. Looks more like the cmc and Euro so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 That vort in southern Oregon, riding down the Rockies looks MUCH healthier this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Here we go guys. We have nice moisture return over central Tx. Gfs is back for the moment. 5h much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 CMC is a big hit. Very cold. Ice down to near Charleston. More precip this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Here we go guys. We have nice moisture return over central Tx. Gfs is back for the moment. 5h much improved. Big run incoming imo. Cold isn’t as deep so probably a big ice storm... assuming it has a clue about the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This one's gonna be a doozy. Stronger HP, healthier s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, griteater said: CMC is a big hit. Very cold. Ice down to near Charleston. More precip this run Charleston? Wow. That would be something to see. The CMC really likes Bloo by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Jonathan said: This one's gonna be a doozy. Stronger HP, healthier s/w. Love it man! 1040 parked up in Watertown NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Much better precip field. Plenty of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Only bad thing is at 117, looks like the transfer takes place east of MYR. Need the streams to get together a little quicker but there’s ample time. We just needed the gfs to stop producing garbage. Hearing the CMC is a massive hit with partial stream phase. Me likes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Yep at 108 this looks a lot better. Big change from the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS is improved, but CMC is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Only bad thing is at 117, looks like the transfer takes place east of MYR. Need the streams to get together a little quicker but there’s ample time. We just needed the gfs to stop producing garbage. Hearing the CMC is a massive hit with partial stream phase. Me likes! Man it looks good at 120. Snow NW NC up to your area, ice across the rest of NC down to Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, griteater said: GFS is improved, but CMC is much better CMC was close to a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS is improved, but CMC is much better grit, where are you getting the CMC so quickly? We knew this would happen with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Much better precip field. Plenty of cold air. Unfortunately it's snow to ice for us. I'll pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Honestly at this point if I could get a 3-6 incher out of this up my way I would not complain one bit, although the greedy side of me sees some of the bigger more phased solutions and wants to hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 0z GFS at 120 is almost identical to today's 12z CMC at 144. Just an interesting note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html Also here’s a link to a plume viewer that also compares the two models. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3plumes/EMCGFSXplumes.html Both should update and change as the model is developed. Last big change was on the 19th they implemented a new micro physics system. Should be interesting to watch as they get closer to a finished product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The models are where we wan them. Want to see the gfs/euro slightly less amped and the GGEM/NAVGEM/JMA very amped. That normally leads to a solution in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Once again the CMC and it’s ensembles have proven very useful in this storm... I’m really liking it since the upgrade. The GFS on the other hand is clueless... from a cutter to suppressed back to a decent storm the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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