FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At this range I do believe the euro over the GFS; but the GFS could be right this time. It is a plausible solution. This is like a game of Chess, one model makes a move then another counters. Whos going to fold to the other.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At this range I do believe the euro over the GFS; but the GFS could be right this time. It is a plausible solution. This is like a game of Chess, one model makes a move then another counters. Whos going to fold to the other.... One thing about the GFS , it often overdoes the cold, if temps back off a bit, suppression won't be a problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Unfortunately, the GFS could be on to something... but I really hope not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I mention this earlier, Big time cold often times yield's SUPPRESSION!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I don't know, I kind of view this as just chaos with the models trying to hone in on the track, amplification, and timing of the key wave. The op models are all different, though the ensemble means were quite similar until this 18z GEFS. On to the 00z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 GFS is the most suppressed of all solutions. It has went from cutter to squash city in the past 3 days. Highly doubtful it leads the way. CMC too amp'd. Euro or Ukie likely leading the way at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know, I kind of view this as just chaos with the models trying to hone in on the track, amplification, and timing of the key wave. The op models are all different, though the ensemble means were quite similar until this 18z GEFS. On to the 00z's Probably a middle of the rd solution, a blend of the ukie and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Goofy is correct enough, Just to be dangerous!! I wouldn't toss it until we are much closer to the POSSIBLE event................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: GFS is the most suppressed of all solutions. It has went from cutter to squash city in the past 3 days. Highly doubtful it leads the way. CMC too amp'd. Euro or Ukie likely leading the way at this juncture Problem is, the UKMet was weak with the waves thru 144. My biggest 'concern' here would be the 18z scenario of a weak series of waves and then a big cutter. I don't know if suppression is the right word here because we're not going to get a miss to the south. Eventually a wave will dig and ignite a storm, but it could be delayed a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, WarmNose said: GFS is the most suppressed of all solutions. It has went from cutter to squash city in the past 3 days. Highly doubtful it leads the way. CMC too amp'd. Euro or Ukie likely leading the way at this juncture I feel like this is the most real likelihood as of right now. Would really like to see 00z gfs change it’s tune at least a little, seeing as how we would be possibly 4 days away from precip chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 OK, I really hate to say this but I am hoping for no snow or ice for the piedmont and coastal sections of SC and NC on the 28th and 29th. Why? I am currently in San Antonio. Tx and am driving back to NC on those days and I would really love good weather for this. Each day is a 12 hour drive as it is and I really do not need the headaches of winter weather on those dates. Afterward it can snow and ice all it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ice storms are a lot easier to get than snow! Across the world I would say snow is the easier type (on average). But our area, with CAD, ice is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Time to start watching the NAM as well. Even though it’s not great at 84 hours it can be useful for seeing how it handles the vort coming onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Also FWIW the 18z NAVGEM is less suppressed and it usually has a bias towards suppression. When it’s more amped than the GFS then you know the GFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is the main piece of energy on the Euro over the 4 corners day 5, GFS has it 12 hours quicker and weaker. The differences are seeing before this at day 4 so we will know early on tonight about the GFS. It will be disappointing if tonights GEFS run doesn't improve a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 As much as I hate the hassle of a 1/2 inch of ice, when you've been in a snow drought as long as my area has been. Ice = Better than nothing. Hope the 00z brings the noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Also FWIW the 18z NAVGEM is less suppressed and it usually has a bias towards suppression. When it’s more amped than the GFS then you know the GFS is out to lunch. This is the beginning of what you want to see. Good pickup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Time to start watching the NAM as well. Even though it’s not great at 84 hours it can be useful for seeing how it handles the vort coming onshore. Maybe, but an 84hr NAM isn't quite going to give us the reliable answers we're looking for this evening. Might help with blending context Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 16 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Maybe, but an 84hr NAM isn't quite going to give us the reliable answers we're looking for this evening. Might help with blending context The 84 hour NAM is much better than it used to be, especially for 5H setups. When it concurs with the Euro and CMC it’s a good sign it is on the right track... plus it’s the first model rolling in for the 00z suite so it’ll be interesting to see if it maintains the wave or trends weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: The 84 hour NAM is much better than it used to be, especially for 5H setups. When it concurs with the Euro and CMC it’s a good sign it is on the right track... plus it’s the first model rolling in for the 00z suite so it’ll be interesting to see if it maintains the wave or trends weaker. Great for 2m temps as well. Superiority over all in that respect to see how strong it is showing the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Forget about the models for a day or two? You crazy. Lol...yep, could you imagine not looking at this site or the models for the next two days. Especially for us weather weenies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It's a CAD sniffer for sure, and almost universally acknowledged in the community with the upcoming cold next week. Still, not sure we can count on it to decidedly decipher the craziness at 84hrs. It's value will certainly aid in the progg though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Lol...yep, could you imagine not looking at this site or the models for the next two days. Especially for us weather weenies.... We should try it! Just use TWC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We should try it! Just use TWC! You are kidding .... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I don't know where the pessimism is coming from for you guys... we have the GFS right where we want it right now. Honestly, taking into account model biases, we are seeing the prefect modeled predictions for a huge winter storm in our area right now. I would be more concerned if the GFS was showing a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Chris Justus updated his Facebook site - now predicting a 40% chance of freezing rain, sleet, snow for next Thurs-Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, drfranklin said: Chris Justus updated his Facebook site - now predicting a 40% chance of freezing rain, sleet, snow for next Thurs-Sat Man, that's bold for him! You can tell he must be in charge while JC is having a nice Christmas break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I don't know where the pessimism is coming from for you guys... we have the GFS right where we want it right now. Honestly, taking into account model biases, we are seeing the prefect modeled predictions for a huge winter storm in our area right now. I would be more concerned if the GFS was showing a direct hit. Funny thing is, if I had to take a stab at the nam already, it looks much more interesting at 48 when comparing panels to the gfs at the same range. Be interested to see where it goes even tho it is nam. May be telling as to what it is sampling and if it is in line with the majority of the model camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Nam looks much better than the gfs at the end of its run. Has the tall western ridge funneling down the Rockies, with the sw energy in the Southwest. More Euroish with its depiction. I think the future runs would look decent. You can see the return flow out of Texas responding. I really hope the gfs gets its head out of its a** at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nam looks much better than the gfs at the end of its run. Has the tall western ridge funneling down the Rockies, with the sw energy in the Southwest. More Euroish with its depiction. I think the future runs would look decent. You can see the return flow out of Texas responding. I really hope the gfs gets its head out of its a** at 0z I wouldn’t count on the GFS improving. It tends to do this a lot inside 5-6 days with our storms. As long as CMC and Euro hold we are fine. If they back off things then it will be time to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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