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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

man that storm for Thursday has been completely vaporized....

The NWS forecast for my little corner of Georgia still has us at a 30% chance of snow for Thursday. Since they completely missed the "surprise storm" from a couple of weeks ago I'm reserving judgement. It's something I'm watching closely because that's when I'm supposed to go back to work.  :)

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

In Jan 96, there was lake effect off of Lake Hartwell into Easley!

Down here back in 2000 I think, something like that, had a lake Moultrie effect snow blanket Goose Creek with a dusting to an inch a few miles down the road from where I was at.  Crazy that day.

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2 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

Down here back in 2000 I think, something like that, had a lake Moultrie effect snow blanket Goose Creek with a dusting to an inch a few miles down the road from where I was at.  Crazy that day.

That is absolutely insane bro! I would like to talk to you about that event soon. MERRY CHRISTMAS to you and Family MB! 

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I'm trying to understand what I'm seeing with the models and how some don't seem to be reconciling the differences they have with each other. The GFS has a 1040+ HP that comes out of Montana and progresses southeast essentially squashing the low pressure. The high pressure seems to make it as far south east as the Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa border so the low pressure in the gulf being suppressed makes sense. However, as best I can tell the European takes this high pressure across the great lakes yet for some reason the moisture from the gulf doesn't seem to come any further north. The hi-res models have this same high pressure that meanders within 100 miles of its location for several frames but then move is several hundred miles from one frame to the next. This seems odd as well. Someone help me understand this.

I guess what I'm saying is...with these differences and oddities it seems to me that something exciting could still be on the table for us. It seems to me with some of these differences there should be a wider range of possibilities than what is being shown.

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Hopefully this is the start of a North trend that continues right until the event starts. That was a pretty major shift back to the northwest on the NAM. It really looked a lot more healthy with the shortwave, wouldn't take much more for this to be a nice event for everyone. 

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

will be interesting to see if the gfs ticks nw, this is the time we usually see the nw trend.  nam with precip up to florence where 06z has it limited to the coast.

NAM had it much further NW. At hour 60 and 66 it’s at least as far back inland as Columbia SC

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