Jet Stream Rider Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Not a horrible look. Would rather that low sit down around offshore Savannah and slowly spin rather than pop out off Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The GFS 168hr has something I have never seen before. .. Savannah River Effect Snow ... WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanith Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: man that storm for Thursday has been completely vaporized.... The NWS forecast for my little corner of Georgia still has us at a 30% chance of snow for Thursday. Since they completely missed the "surprise storm" from a couple of weeks ago I'm reserving judgement. It's something I'm watching closely because that's when I'm supposed to go back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormsfury said: The GFS 168hr has something I have never seen before. .. Savannah River Effect Snow ... WTF? In Jan 96, there was lake effect off of Lake Hartwell into Easley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 18z GFS got snow onto the beaches near Sarasota, Florida for New Years. Don't see that every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: In Jan 96, there was lake effect off of Lake Hartwell into Easley! Down here back in 2000 I think, something like that, had a lake Moultrie effect snow blanket Goose Creek with a dusting to an inch a few miles down the road from where I was at. Crazy that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay another mountain snowstorm for the Jan1 storm! Nice storm between cold shots! The 2000 10 day stretch of awesomeness, is flailing! Cold air source west of the Apps. That usually works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: Down here back in 2000 I think, something like that, had a lake Moultrie effect snow blanket Goose Creek with a dusting to an inch a few miles down the road from where I was at. Crazy that day. That is absolutely insane bro! I would like to talk to you about that event soon. MERRY CHRISTMAS to you and Family MB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Wow... Crazy to think it wasn’t all that long ago everyone was worried about this thing cutting and wondering how the models had the low tracking towards the high pressures. Guess the models corrected that mistake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 21Z SREF was really amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 21Z SREF was really amped up For the 27-30 system? Go figure. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Of course I did. This thread needed a shot in the arm and it’s after midnight. Something had to give lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Well UKMET is supressed! Euro is our only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Well UKMET is supressed! Euro is our only hope! Don’t forget the German model is still showing an amped solution at 00z. Btw even though the UK was suppressed it did look better at 5H... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro drops a nice 1-2” of snow from rdu to pgv Wednesday morning but nothing for the main event Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwick20 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'm trying to understand what I'm seeing with the models and how some don't seem to be reconciling the differences they have with each other. The GFS has a 1040+ HP that comes out of Montana and progresses southeast essentially squashing the low pressure. The high pressure seems to make it as far south east as the Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa border so the low pressure in the gulf being suppressed makes sense. However, as best I can tell the European takes this high pressure across the great lakes yet for some reason the moisture from the gulf doesn't seem to come any further north. The hi-res models have this same high pressure that meanders within 100 miles of its location for several frames but then move is several hundred miles from one frame to the next. This seems odd as well. Someone help me understand this. I guess what I'm saying is...with these differences and oddities it seems to me that something exciting could still be on the table for us. It seems to me with some of these differences there should be a wider range of possibilities than what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 ICON still says it’s on for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 at 57hr the nam looks a bit better with more expansive precip down near the sc lowcountry. ice down near chs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Stronger and further NW. alright, here we go. About time for climo to start factoring in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Hopefully this is the start of a North trend that continues right until the event starts. That was a pretty major shift back to the northwest on the NAM. It really looked a lot more healthy with the shortwave, wouldn't take much more for this to be a nice event for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: at 57hr the nam looks a bit better with more expansive precip down near the sc lowcountry. ice down near chs. The NAM has had zr in SAV for the past couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Precipitation almost back out to clt and rdu at 66. Need it to keep coming nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It's time to let this on go! I'll sign the do not resuscitate papers! On this run of the NAM, it looks warmer? The wedge barely shows a signature and the NW edge that got near ATL was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Going to chase this to Goldsboro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z nam has no ice or CAD really. Alot warmer 2m temps. Upper 30s to 40s. Kind of ashamed things didn't work out. For first wave. Very minor weak low ATM over GOM. SE of Victoria TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 will be interesting to see if the gfs ticks nw, this is the time we usually see the nw trend. nam with precip up to florence where 06z has it limited to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: will be interesting to see if the gfs ticks nw, this is the time we usually see the nw trend. nam with precip up to florence where 06z has it limited to the coast. NAM had it much further NW. At hour 60 and 66 it’s at least as far back inland as Columbia SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Interestingly the NAM run lines up very closely with the German model I posted last night. Almost identical with the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Cue Frosty. Not happening this time! Cold and Dry far as the Frosty can see out of these chunks of coal!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If you believe these NAM 2m temperature profiles are correct at hr57 I feel sorry for your brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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