WidreMann Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The wave on the NAM will go too far north, so we'll be high and dry down here. Then assuming the MR GFS/Euro is correct, our last chance really is this weekend before the pattern reverts again. If the NAM is leading the charge here, my guess is that the only southern folks to see snow will be the ENC peeps who get some flakes on Wednesday. Hopefully that'll trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Is that a difference piece, or is that the one we are looking for this weekend? It’s a different piece that breaks off a low in the pacific NW. It is a very potent piece of energy and the first time I’ve seen it show up on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Yea and @81 that sucker is going nuts over Wyoming. Looking at the gfs from 18z it is laughable the difference in spread that exists. The GFS has an arctic wave over ND on the 18z run.. this is a separate wave with room to dive south. Nice but needs support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I am confused, the NAM is showing rain for my area but then 2m temp is below freezing... wouldn’t that be ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Here it is at the end of the nam’s run. Gfs has nothing remotely close to this setup at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: The GFS has an arctic wave over ND on the 18z run.. this is a separate wave with room to dive south. Talk about an absolute tease to see where this thing goes at the end of a run. She’s really trying to dig if you progress through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 NAM coastal GA/SC accretions in warning criteria still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Talk about an absolute tease to see where this thing goes at the end of a run. She’s really trying to dig if you progress through the run. Wouldn't it have to dig with the confluence to the North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 This was from the 18z run for the same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I am confused, the NAM is showing rain for my area but then 2m temp is below freezing... wouldn’t that be ZR? Yes. Thursday/Friday from what bufkit is saying, sleet,zr, frozenslop 10 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: NAM coastal GA/SC accretions in warning criteria still. 18z NAM got SAV to freezing while dropping .45 in rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Not sure where to put this about the NY threat but I really liked the 18z run. It was about as perfect as you could expect for a fluffy, efficient snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Is that a difference piece, or is that the one we are looking for this weekend? It's different. Just something else to watch go down the toilet over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yes, the NY threat for NC looked nice on 18z - very efficient and everything would stick. The problem with snows like that though, is that they melt or even evaporate very easily - due to such low moisture content. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I would gladly trade ice for a dusting of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 37 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Overnight into the morning. So if the models don't bring it back by tomorrow evening, I'd say it's toast. The 'wave' for the Friday system doesn't hit the west coast until Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: The 'wave' for the Friday system doesn't hit the west coast until Wednesday Wow! A lot could change by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 CMC still says what storm and GFS has it suppressed with ice along SC and GA coasts. Let’s see what happens Wednesday when this wave comes onshore. For now the early Wednesday storm has a better chance of verifying for Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 00Z GFS much stronger with the NY storm in the midwest much more precip out there this run than last... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 No cold air supply for us, though. Will be a marginal event I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 new years storm gonna be a good one here in a few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: new years storm gonna be a good one here in a few frames. Gonna be rain for a lot this run! No wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Gonna be rain for a lot this run! No wedge Yeah, previous runs let another shortwave go out ahead to allow a cold front to pass and that giant high to build in. Instead, it's going to all go *behind* the storm, and we will be going into the 40s and 50s ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: new years storm gonna be a good one here in a few frames. huge differences in this run already 18Z 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 This is honestly ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Doesn't help most of us, but wow at that push of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Yay another mountain snowstorm for the Jan1 storm! Nice storm between cold shots! The 2000 10 day stretch of awesomeness, is flailing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 man that storm for Thursday has been completely vaporized.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Canadian is a much better look with NY storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It does actually dump 2-4" of snow across central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay another mountain snowstorm for the Jan1 storm! Nice storm between cold shots! The 2000 10 day stretch of awesomeness, is flailing! 00Z GFS will salvage 2-4" for most of NC at least, still though a completely different look with the evolution of the system..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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