DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Alright, so without wishcasting, is there a real chance the 29th storm comes more N with the precip? What changes in the model runs do we need to look for, besides just precip shield? yes, 72hrs out if we were in the bullseye we would be scared to death of the nw trend. it will come north, how much is anyones guess. we see this happen every single winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 3 hours ago, Lookout said: Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter, one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . I'm past that, 5 posting and timeouts has now gone to the top of the list 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: This is probably banter so please forgive me Chris but this **** has got to stop. All the whining and banter is clouding the information and it’s frustrating. People think we’re being “cliquish” or whatever don’t realize they wouldn’t have made it 48 hours on the old boards. Trying to catch up on today has been absolutely painful to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Here is the 18z German model at 78 hours. Talk about amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Here is the 18z German model at 78 hours. Talk about amped... That is beautiful, but all jokes aside, how realistic would it be to think the DWD will be the one to start the good trends? Totally unrealistic, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Here is the 18z German model at 78 hours. Talk about amped... German looks a lot like the CMC and GFS runs from days ago. Wouldn’t that be something if it verified. Primary up in Eastern TN and then the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Temps look promising for NC folks (to avoid ZR hopefully) - ICON has done well before (last January in particular) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 For those wondering what we need to see, here is a comparison of the dry CMC and the amped German model. German, notice the stream separation and southern vort digging more. Also note the SW winds over NC bringing in Gulf moisture. CMC, notice less stream separation and vort hasn’t dug as much. As a result the winds are westerly or wsw over NC which is why it’s dry. All we need is a small change like the German model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Morning GEPS improved slightly over last nights run. 00Z: 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 This is starting to remind me of a strong CAD event on Feb 15, 2016 that produced no rain or winter precip but the damming remained stout throughout the whole day keeping me around freezing. IDK if that will happen this time or not or if anyone remembers the pattern that led to no precip into the cold dome, perhaps a similar pattern to this upcoming thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: The sound of crickets on here really speaks volumes Give it about 2 hrs. See if the German can get some suport from any other models. Great job on the post above mrdadyman about stream seperation and more important sw winds verse more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Give it about 2 hrs. See if the German can get some suport from any other models. Great job on the post above mrdadyman about stream seperation and more important sw winds verse more westerly. Yes well said snowlover! I guess in a sense we need a little taller ridge out west? Crickets meaning a lot of us were busy with Christmas and some of us just dont post that often on every single model run...its just not wor th it to me. Trends were bad today on most all models but i still have some hope up here on the lee side. Reading gsp disco the mention of upglide reminds me of those spring days when we get a steady drizzle here and over farther east get nothing more than sprinkles. Seen it happen a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 0z NAM is rolling. Are we allowed to talk about the Wednesday threat in this thread now since the Friday threat is all but gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: 0z NAM is rolling. Are we allowed to talk about the Wednesday threat in this thread now since the Friday threat is all but gone? I'm interested whatever the NAM shows beyond 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: 0z NAM is rolling. Are we allowed to talk about the Wednesday threat in this thread now since the Friday threat is all but gone? I don't see why not 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'm interested whatever the NAM shows beyond 36hrs This isn't about you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Out to 33hr, 32 degree line further south in Texas... more stream separation perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 more precipitation field at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 at 45 storm #1 (wednesday) is nowhere near as amped as the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Ok, so we are now tracking models for the 27th or 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, CummingGaSnow said: Ok, so we are now tracking models for the 27th or 29th? I think both can be discussed right now given the circumstances, unless one proves to be the dedicated one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Looks like more stream separation at hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Out to 51hr, more moisture inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 When is the system slated to come on shore? Is it already on shore? That will probably help with the model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 For the Wednesday wave a nice wintry mix and decent qpf for Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: When is the system slated to come on shore? Is it already on shore? That will probably help with the model chaos. Overnight into the morning. So if the models don't bring it back by tomorrow evening, I'd say it's toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Well the NAM has some very interesting changes at hour 63 on the 5H map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Well the NAM has some very interesting changes at hour 63 on the 5H map... Yeah, that's as flat as the western ridge has been the whole time with lower heights still pressing down on the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Quite a potent little wave entering the NW at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Yeah, that's as flat as the western ridge has been the whole time with lower heights still pressing down on the SE. Not that, a new piece of energy enters the pacific NW at 66 that is very strong. Could bring fireworks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Quite a potent little wave entering the NW at 66 hrs. Yea and @81 that sucker is going nuts over Wyoming. Looking at the gfs from 18z it is laughable the difference in spread that exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Is that a difference piece, or is that the one we are looking for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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