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The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread


lilj4425

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Alright, so without wishcasting, is there a real chance the 29th storm comes more N with the precip? What changes in the model runs do we need to look for, besides just precip shield?

yes, 72hrs out if we were in the bullseye we would be scared to death of the nw trend. it will come north, how much is anyones guess. we see this happen every single winter.

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3 hours ago, Lookout said:

Folks...storm or no storm.....the off topic banter,  one liners, jokes, and otherwise totally unhelpful posts have gotten out of hand. If you are seeing your posts disappear, this is a clue to stop. Take this stuff to the banter thread . 

 

I'm past that, 5 posting and timeouts has now gone to the top of the list  :angry: 

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

This is probably banter so please forgive me Chris but this **** has got to stop. All the whining and banter is clouding the information and it’s frustrating. People think we’re being “cliquish” or whatever don’t realize they wouldn’t have made it 48 hours on the old boards.

Trying to catch up on today has been absolutely painful to read  :yikes:  

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For those wondering what we need to see, here is a comparison of the dry CMC and the amped German model. 

German, notice the stream separation and southern vort digging more. Also note the SW winds over NC bringing in Gulf moisture. 

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_078_0500.gif

 

CMC, notice less stream separation and vort hasn’t dug as much. As a result the winds are westerly or wsw over NC which is why it’s dry. All we need is a small change like the German model shows. 

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_078_0500.gif

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This is starting to remind me of a strong CAD event on Feb 15, 2016 that produced no rain or winter precip but the damming remained stout throughout the whole day keeping me around freezing. IDK if that will happen this time or not or if anyone remembers the pattern that led to no precip into the cold dome, perhaps a similar pattern to this upcoming thursday?

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8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Give it about 2 hrs. See if the German can get some suport from any other models.

Great job on the post above mrdadyman about stream seperation and more important sw winds verse more westerly. 

Yes well said snowlover! I guess in a sense we need a little taller ridge out west? Crickets meaning a lot of us were busy with Christmas and some of us just dont post that often on every single model run...its just not wor th it to me. Trends were bad today on most all models but i still have some hope up here on the lee side. Reading gsp disco the mention of upglide reminds me of those spring days when we get a steady drizzle here and over farther east get nothing more than sprinkles. Seen it happen a million times.

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